2026 forecast · Alabama Agriculture Commissioner
Corey Hill is all but certain to win Alabama's agriculture commissioner race.
Ron Sparks vs Corey Hill, an open seat. The model has Hill ahead by 26.4 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +26.4Polls R +12.3Updated October 22, 2026
Ron Sparks
Democrat
36.3%
622,546 projected votes
Corey Hill
Republican
62.7%
1,076,342 projected votes
100%Hill
0%Sparks
Hill all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Hill wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Sparks +105,437 net votes from 13 countiesStatewide R +26.4, a 453,797 vote marginHill +559,234 net votes from 54 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,716,050 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Hill R | 1,076,342 | 62.7% |
| Ron Sparks D | 622,546 | 36.3% |
| Other candidates | 17,160 | 1.0% |
| Total | 1,716,050 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
67 counties| County | Sparks | Hill | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 622,547 | 1,076,344 | 17,158 | 1,716,049 | R +26.4 |
| Jefferson County | 144,344 | 88,805 | 2,355 | 235,504 | D +23.6 |
| Madison County | 68,672 | 75,034 | 1,452 | 145,158 | R +4.4 |
| Mobile County | 57,625 | 74,339 | 1,334 | 133,298 | R +12.5 |
| Baldwin County | 17,338 | 69,880 | 881 | 88,099 | R +59.6 |
| Shelby County | 25,961 | 56,158 | 829 | 82,948 | R +36.4 |
| Montgomery County | 49,829 | 23,085 | 736 | 73,650 | D +36.3 |
| Tuscaloosa County | 28,632 | 37,988 | 672 | 67,292 | R +13.9 |
| Lee County | 19,579 | 33,716 | 538 | 53,833 | R +26.3 |
| Morgan County | 8,781 | 30,058 | 392 | 39,231 | R +54.2 |
| Limestone County | 10,147 | 27,437 | 380 | 37,964 | R +45.5 |
| Calhoun County | 10,409 | 25,793 | 366 | 36,568 | R +42.1 |
| Houston County | 8,511 | 25,369 | 342 | 34,222 | R +49.3 |
| Etowah County | 7,505 | 25,088 | 329 | 32,922 | R +53.4 |
| St. Clair County | 5,459 | 26,781 | 326 | 32,566 | R +65.5 |
| Lauderdale County | 7,652 | 23,791 | 317 | 31,760 | R +50.8 |
| Cullman County | 2,916 | 28,203 | 314 | 31,433 | R +80.5 |
| Elmore County | 6,833 | 24,115 | 313 | 31,261 | R +55.3 |
| Marshall County | 3,768 | 25,203 | 293 | 29,264 | R +73.3 |
| Talladega County | 8,893 | 16,897 | 260 | 26,050 | R +30.7 |
| Walker County | 3,016 | 18,510 | 218 | 21,744 | R +71.3 |
| DeKalb County | 2,430 | 18,555 | 212 | 21,197 | R +76.1 |
| Autauga County | 5,123 | 15,774 | 211 | 21,108 | R +50.5 |
| Colbert County | 5,474 | 14,521 | 202 | 20,197 | R +44.8 |
| Blount County | 1,881 | 17,988 | 201 | 20,070 | R +80.3 |
| Coffee County | 2,945 | 14,036 | 172 | 17,153 | R +64.7 |
| Jackson County | 2,403 | 14,278 | 169 | 16,850 | R +70.5 |
| Russell County | 8,028 | 7,522 | 158 | 15,708 | D +3.2 |
| Tallapoosa County | 3,697 | 11,718 | 155 | 15,570 | R +51.5 |
| Dale County | 3,311 | 11,374 | 149 | 14,834 | R +54.4 |
| Chilton County | 1,966 | 12,626 | 148 | 14,740 | R +72.3 |
| Covington County | 1,627 | 11,542 | 133 | 13,302 | R +74.5 |
| Dallas County | 9,065 | 4,038 | 132 | 13,235 | D +38.0 |
| Lawrence County | 2,472 | 9,707 | 123 | 12,302 | R +58.8 |
| Escambia County | 2,989 | 8,612 | 117 | 11,718 | R +48.0 |
| Chambers County | 4,018 | 6,924 | 110 | 11,052 | R +26.3 |
| Pike County | 3,659 | 6,732 | 105 | 10,496 | R +29.3 |
| Marion County | 909 | 9,150 | 101 | 10,160 | R +81.1 |
| Clarke County | 4,112 | 5,533 | 97 | 9,742 | R +14.6 |
| Geneva County | 965 | 8,551 | 96 | 9,612 | R +78.9 |
| Cherokee County | 969 | 8,342 | 95 | 9,406 | R +78.4 |
| Franklin County | 1,139 | 7,856 | 90 | 9,085 | R +73.9 |
| Winston County | 618 | 7,599 | 83 | 8,300 | R +84.1 |
| Randolph County | 1,217 | 6,802 | 81 | 8,100 | R +68.9 |
| Marengo County | 4,052 | 3,783 | 79 | 7,914 | D +3.4 |
| Barbour County | 3,246 | 4,565 | 79 | 7,890 | R +16.7 |
| Monroe County | 3,009 | 4,754 | 78 | 7,841 | R +22.3 |
| Henry County | 1,684 | 5,743 | 75 | 7,502 | R +54.1 |
| Pickens County | 2,794 | 4,395 | 72 | 7,261 | R +22.1 |
| Bibb County | 1,361 | 5,729 | 72 | 7,162 | R +61.0 |
| Macon County | 5,688 | 1,095 | 69 | 6,852 | D +67.0 |
| Butler County | 2,523 | 4,251 | 69 | 6,843 | R +25.3 |
| Washington County | 1,354 | 5,169 | 65 | 6,588 | R +57.9 |
| Fayette County | 850 | 5,455 | 63 | 6,368 | R +72.3 |
| Hale County | 3,309 | 2,496 | 59 | 5,864 | D +13.9 |
| Cleburne County | 372 | 5,169 | 55 | 5,596 | R +85.7 |
| Choctaw County | 2,074 | 3,379 | 55 | 5,508 | R +23.7 |
| Crenshaw County | 1,056 | 4,053 | 51 | 5,160 | R +58.1 |
| Lamar County | 565 | 4,518 | 51 | 5,134 | R +77.0 |
| Clay County | 743 | 4,265 | 50 | 5,058 | R +69.6 |
| Conecuh County | 2,031 | 2,793 | 50 | 4,874 | R +15.6 |
| Lowndes County | 3,325 | 1,185 | 46 | 4,556 | D +47.0 |
| Sumter County | 3,424 | 1,073 | 45 | 4,542 | D +51.8 |
| Wilcox County | 2,886 | 1,371 | 43 | 4,300 | D +35.2 |
| Coosa County | 1,244 | 2,943 | 41 | 4,228 | R +40.2 |
| Perry County | 2,715 | 852 | 37 | 3,604 | D +51.7 |
| Greene County | 2,789 | 527 | 34 | 3,350 | D +67.5 |
| Bullock County | 2,566 | 751 | 33 | 3,350 | D +54.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +18.2 and R +34.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +20.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +55.7 |
| Blend of every leg | R +30.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +30.3 |
| With polls, 20% weight | R +26.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +18.2 and R +34.7.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Sparks | Hill | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily News | 500 LV | 2026-10-17 | 35.6 | 48.5 | R +12.9 |