2026 forecast · Vermont Lieutenant Governor
Molly Gray is very likely to win Vermont's lieutenant governor race.
Molly Gray vs John Rodgers, with John Rodgers running again. The model has Gray ahead by 6.8 points, with a 86 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +6.8Polls D +14.2Updated October 22, 2026
Molly Gray
Democrat
51.6%
169,977 projected votes
John Rodgers
Republican
44.8%
147,596 projected votes
86%Gray
14%Rodgers
Gray very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Gray wins about 86 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Gray +41,478 net votes from 7 countiesStatewide D +6.8, a 22,380 vote marginRodgers +19,098 net votes from 7 counties
Projected statewide vote
329,223 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Molly Gray D | 169,977 | 51.6% |
| John Rodgers R | 147,596 | 44.8% |
| Charlie Bass | 11,649 | 3.5% |
| Total | 329,223 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
14 counties| County | Gray | Rodgers | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 169,977 | 147,597 | 11,649 | 329,223 | D +6.8 |
| Chittenden County | 53,355 | 31,990 | 3,131 | 88,476 | D +24.1 |
| Washington County | 18,147 | 12,398 | 1,120 | 31,665 | D +18.2 |
| Windsor County | 16,440 | 12,955 | 1,079 | 30,474 | D +11.4 |
| Rutland County | 11,245 | 17,799 | 1,065 | 30,109 | R +21.8 |
| Windham County | 15,120 | 7,353 | 824 | 23,297 | D +33.3 |
| Franklin County | 8,267 | 14,088 | 820 | 23,175 | R +25.1 |
| Addison County | 10,637 | 8,889 | 716 | 20,242 | D +8.6 |
| Bennington County | 9,139 | 8,562 | 650 | 18,351 | D +3.1 |
| Orange County | 7,265 | 7,787 | 552 | 15,604 | R +3.3 |
| Caledonia County | 6,122 | 8,098 | 521 | 14,741 | R +13.4 |
| Lamoille County | 6,738 | 5,951 | 466 | 13,155 | D +6.0 |
| Orleans County | 4,769 | 7,546 | 451 | 12,766 | R +21.8 |
| Grand Isle County | 1,804 | 2,351 | 152 | 4,307 | R +12.7 |
| Essex County | 929 | 1,830 | 102 | 2,861 | R +31.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +15.0 and R +1.4. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +8.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +33.3 |
| Blend of every leg | D +7.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +3.7 |
| With polls, 32% weight | D +6.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +15.0 and R +1.4.
Polls of the race
3 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Gray | Rodgers | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center (Green Mountain State Poll) | 835 LV | 2026-09-21 | 54 | 35 | D +19.0 |
| Braun Research for Vermont Public (dir. Rich Clark) | 817 unspecified (all respondents) | 2026-09-21 | 42.8 | 34.8 | D +8.0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center (Green Mountain State Poll) | 887 LV | 2026-06-23 | 45 | 29 | D +16.0 |