2026 forecast · Arizona Treasurer
Nick Mansour is very likely to win Arizona's treasurer race.
Nick Mansour vs Elijah Norton, an open seat. The model has Mansour ahead by 10.2 points, with a 96 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +10.2Polls D +5.8Updated October 22, 2026
Nick Mansour
Democrat
54.6%
1,739,988 projected votes
Elijah Norton
Republican
44.4%
1,414,008 projected votes
96%Mansour
4%Norton
Mansour all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Mansour wins about 96 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Mansour +470,518 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide D +10.2, a 325,979 vote marginNorton +144,539 net votes from 10 counties
Projected statewide vote
3,185,856 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Mansour D | 1,739,988 | 54.6% |
| Elijah Norton R | 1,414,008 | 44.4% |
| Other candidates | 31,858 | 1.0% |
| Total | 3,185,856 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
15 counties| County | Mansour | Norton | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,739,989 | 1,414,010 | 31,857 | 3,185,856 | D +10.2 |
| Maricopa County | 1,092,439 | 814,940 | 19,266 | 1,926,645 | D +14.4 |
| Pima County | 317,497 | 168,568 | 4,910 | 490,975 | D +30.3 |
| Pinal County | 78,668 | 110,859 | 1,914 | 191,441 | R +16.8 |
| Yavapai County | 50,792 | 86,591 | 1,387 | 138,770 | R +25.8 |
| Mohave County | 26,308 | 74,876 | 1,022 | 102,206 | R +47.5 |
| Coconino County | 46,052 | 21,612 | 683 | 68,347 | D +35.8 |
| Yuma County | 30,576 | 33,187 | 644 | 64,407 | R +4.0 |
| Cochise County | 24,654 | 30,884 | 561 | 56,099 | R +11.1 |
| Navajo County | 22,611 | 24,977 | 480 | 48,068 | R +4.9 |
| Apache County | 21,557 | 8,848 | 307 | 30,712 | D +41.4 |
| Gila County | 9,152 | 16,848 | 263 | 26,263 | R +29.3 |
| Santa Cruz County | 12,021 | 5,080 | 173 | 17,274 | D +40.2 |
| Graham County | 4,070 | 10,093 | 143 | 14,306 | R +42.1 |
| La Paz County | 2,250 | 4,819 | 72 | 7,141 | R +36.0 |
| Greenlee County | 1,342 | 1,828 | 32 | 3,202 | R +15.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.7 and D +2.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +12.7 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +9.7 |
| Blend of every leg | D +12.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +12.3 |
| With polls, 30% weight | D +10.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +17.7 and D +2.7.
Polls of the race
4 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Mansour | Norton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HighGround Inc. | 400 LV | 2026-10-08 | 44.5 | 35.3 | D +9.2 |
| HighGround Inc. | 400 LV | 2026-08-18 | 41.8 | 39 | D +2.8 |
| Grayhouse (R) | 600 LV | 2026-08-13 | 39 | 41 | R +2.0 |
| Stealth Analytics | 530 LV | 2026-08-13 | 35 | 39 | R +4.0 |