Harriet Hageman is all but certain to win Wyoming's Senate seat.
James Byrd vs Harriet Hageman, an open seat. The model has Hageman ahead by 38.6 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
217,029 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Harriet Hageman R | 150,434 | 69.3% |
| James Byrd D | 66,595 | 30.7% |
| Total | 217,029 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +31.2 and R +45.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
Polls of the race
| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | No polls |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 25,918 ballots cast so far in Wyoming, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
13 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Donald TrumpPresidentsource
- Cynthia LummisU.S. Senator, WY (retiring)source
- John BarrassoU.S. Senator, WY; Majority Whipsource
- Chuck GrayWyoming Secretary of Statesource
- Megan DegenfelderWyoming Superintendent of Public Instructionsource
- Chip NeimanSpeaker, Wyoming Housesource
- Senate Conservatives FundConservative PACsource
- Maggie's ListConservative women's PACsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Byrd | Hageman |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 26.1 | 73.9 |
| Women | 51% | 33.9 | 66.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 10% | 36.5 | 63.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 19% | 30.1 | 69.9 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 27.5 | 72.5 |
| 65+ | 38% | 30.6 | 69.4 |
| RaceWhite | 88% | 26.8 | 73.2 |
| Latino | 7% | 47.0 | 53.0 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 57.4 | 42.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 43% | 21.9 | 78.1 |
| White women | 45% | 31.4 | 68.6 |
| Latino men | 4% | 45.2 | 54.8 |
| Latino women | 3% | 48.8 | 51.2 |
| All other races | 5% | 57.4 | 42.6 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
23 counties| County | Byrd | Hageman | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 66,360 | 150,669 | 0 | 217,029 | R +38.8 |
| Laramie County | 14,763 | 19,747 | 0 | 34,510 | R +14.4 |
| Natrona County | 7,660 | 18,880 | 0 | 26,540 | R +42.3 |
| Campbell County | 1,945 | 12,875 | 0 | 14,820 | R +73.7 |
| Fremont County | 4,602 | 9,757 | 0 | 14,359 | R +35.9 |
| Albany County | 8,290 | 5,929 | 0 | 14,219 | D +16.5 |
| Park County | 2,804 | 10,883 | 0 | 13,687 | R +59.1 |
| Sweetwater County | 4,137 | 9,311 | 0 | 13,448 | R +38.6 |
| Sheridan County | 3,160 | 10,086 | 0 | 13,246 | R +52.4 |
| Teton County | 8,163 | 2,502 | 0 | 10,665 | D +53.2 |
| Lincoln County | 1,360 | 7,095 | 0 | 8,455 | R +67.8 |
| Uinta County | 1,464 | 5,917 | 0 | 7,381 | R +60.3 |
| Converse County | 780 | 4,745 | 0 | 5,525 | R +71.7 |
| Goshen County | 1,050 | 4,168 | 0 | 5,218 | R +59.7 |
| Carbon County | 1,207 | 4,007 | 0 | 5,214 | R +53.6 |
| Big Horn County | 673 | 4,034 | 0 | 4,707 | R +71.5 |
| Johnson County | 732 | 3,355 | 0 | 4,087 | R +64.2 |
| Platte County | 765 | 3,315 | 0 | 4,080 | R +62.5 |
| Sublette County | 824 | 3,085 | 0 | 3,909 | R +57.8 |
| Crook County | 370 | 3,062 | 0 | 3,432 | R +78.6 |
| Washakie County | 543 | 2,712 | 0 | 3,255 | R +66.7 |
| Weston County | 423 | 2,526 | 0 | 2,949 | R +71.4 |
| Hot Springs County | 509 | 1,703 | 0 | 2,212 | R +54.0 |
| Niobrara County | 136 | 975 | 0 | 1,111 | R +75.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.