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2026 ballot measure forecast

Louisiana Amendment 2

Keep right to restore prior maximum millage

Lets local taxing authorities levy below their prior maximum rate without permanently losing the ability to return to a previously authorized maximum, up to the voter approved cap. The forecast has Yes at 65.7 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 94% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureProperty taxUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
94%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
65.7%
80% range 53 to 77
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
65.7% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
65.7% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
The campaign

Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.

Also on the Louisiana ballot

Amendment 1
Surviving spouse can transfer disabled veteran exemption
94%
Amendment 3
No post conviction bail for crimes against minors
>99%
Amendment 4
Lifetime two term limit for governor
97%
Amendment 5
Flexibility in paying retirement system debt
92%
Amendment 6
Extra local property tax exemption for seniors
94%
Amendment 7
Public funds for private drinking water lines
88%
Amendment 8
Bar foreign adversaries from expropriating property
91%
Amendment 9
Raise income limit for assessment freeze to $150,000
93%
Amendment 10
Tax exemption for rehabilitated blighted property
93%

Amendment 2 by parish

Acadia ParishAllen ParishAscension ParishAssumption ParishAvoyelles ParishBeauregard ParishBienville ParishBossier ParishCaddo ParishCalcasieu ParishCaldwell ParishCameron ParishCatahoula ParishClaiborne ParishConcordia ParishDe Soto ParishEast Baton Rouge ParishEast Carroll ParishEast Feliciana ParishEvangeline ParishFranklin ParishGrant ParishIberia ParishIberville ParishJackson ParishJefferson ParishJefferson Davis ParishLafayette ParishLafourche ParishLaSalle ParishLincoln ParishLivingston ParishMadison ParishMorehouse ParishNatchitoches ParishOrleans ParishOuachita ParishPlaquemines ParishPointe Coupee ParishRapides ParishRed River ParishRichland ParishSabine ParishSt. Bernard ParishSt. Charles ParishSt. Helena ParishSt. James ParishSt. John the Baptist ParishSt. Landry ParishSt. Martin ParishSt. Mary ParishSt. Tammany ParishTangipahoa ParishTensas ParishTerrebonne ParishUnion ParishVermilion ParishVernon ParishWashington ParishWebster ParishWest Baton Rouge ParishWest Carroll ParishWest Feliciana ParishWinn ParishEast Baton RougeJeffersonOrleansSt. TammanyLafayetteCaddoCalcasieuOuachitaLivingstonAscensionTangipahoaRapides
No +30Yes +30Click a parish to zoom · arrow keys step through parishes by size
Where the margin is won
East Baton Rouge Parish: Yes +44,822Jefferson Parish: Yes +39,756Orleans Parish: Yes +38,804St. Tammany Parish: Yes +29,706Lafayette Parish: Yes +24,278Caddo Parish: Yes +21,952Calcasieu Parish: Yes +17,772Ouachita Parish: Yes +14,771Livingston Parish: Yes +13,844Ascension Parish: Yes +13,182Tangipahoa Parish: Yes +12,225Rapides Parish: Yes +11,988Bossier Parish: Yes +11,537Lafourche Parish: Yes +9,409Terrebonne Parish: Yes +9,319St. Landry Parish: Yes +8,213Iberia Parish: Yes +6,510St. Charles Parish: Yes +5,803Acadia Parish: Yes +5,746Vermilion Parish: Yes +5,613St. Martin Parish: Yes +5,433St. Mary Parish: Yes +4,633St. John the Baptist Parish: Yes +4,311Lincoln Parish: Yes +4,309Washington Parish: Yes +4,088St. Bernard Parish: Yes +3,683Webster Parish: Yes +3,623Vernon Parish: Yes +3,607Avoyelles Parish: Yes +3,529Natchitoches Parish: Yes +3,463Beauregard Parish: Yes +3,416Iberville Parish: Yes +3,373Jefferson Davis Parish: Yes +3,051Evangeline Parish: Yes +3,046De Soto Parish: Yes +3,017West Baton Rouge Parish: Yes +2,990St. James Parish: Yes +2,534Pointe Coupee Parish: Yes +2,480Morehouse Parish: Yes +2,329Union Parish: Yes +2,275Assumption Parish: Yes +2,237Plaquemines Parish: Yes +2,210East Feliciana Parish: Yes +2,184Sabine Parish: Yes +2,163Richland Parish: Yes +2,038Franklin Parish: Yes +1,985Grant Parish: Yes +1,979Allen Parish: Yes +1,946Concordia Parish: Yes +1,769Jackson Parish: Yes +1,592LaSalle Parish: Yes +1,470Bienville Parish: Yes +1,399West Feliciana Parish: Yes +1,395Claiborne Parish: Yes +1,329Winn Parish: Yes +1,276St. Helena Parish: Yes +1,252West Carroll Parish: Yes +1,009Catahoula Parish: Yes +975Caldwell Parish: Yes +968Madison Parish: Yes +945Red River Parish: Yes +819Cameron Parish: Yes +740East Carroll Parish: Yes +596Tensas Parish: Yes +492
Yes +449,208 net votes from 64 parishesStatewide Yes +31.4, a 449,208 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 parishes

Projected vote

1,430,492 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes939,85065.7%
No490,64234.3%
Total1,430,492100%
ParishYesNoTotalYes share
East Baton Rouge Parish93,77948,957142,73665.7%
Jefferson Parish83,17943,423126,60265.7%
Orleans Parish81,18842,384123,57265.7%
St. Tammany Parish62,15132,44594,59665.7%
Lafayette Parish50,79726,51977,31665.7%
Caddo Parish45,92823,97669,90465.7%
Calcasieu Parish37,18419,41256,59665.7%
Ouachita Parish30,90416,13347,03765.7%
Livingston Parish28,96615,12244,08865.7%
Ascension Parish27,58114,39941,98065.7%
Tangipahoa Parish25,57813,35338,93165.7%
Rapides Parish25,08213,09438,17665.7%
Bossier Parish24,13812,60136,73965.7%
Lafourche Parish19,68610,27729,96365.7%
Terrebonne Parish19,49710,17829,67565.7%
St. Landry Parish17,1848,97126,15565.7%
Iberia Parish13,6217,11120,73265.7%
St. Charles Parish12,1416,33818,47965.7%
Acadia Parish12,0226,27618,29865.7%
Vermilion Parish11,7456,13217,87765.7%
St. Martin Parish11,3675,93417,30165.7%
St. Mary Parish9,6945,06114,75565.7%
St. John the Baptist Parish9,0194,70813,72765.7%
Lincoln Parish9,0154,70613,72165.7%
Washington Parish8,5534,46513,01865.7%
St. Bernard Parish7,7064,02311,72965.7%
Webster Parish7,5803,95711,53765.7%
Vernon Parish7,5473,94011,48765.7%
Avoyelles Parish7,3833,85411,23765.7%
Natchitoches Parish7,2463,78311,02965.7%
Beauregard Parish7,1463,73010,87665.7%
Iberville Parish7,0573,68410,74165.7%
Jefferson Davis Parish6,3833,3329,71565.7%
Evangeline Parish6,3743,3289,70265.7%
De Soto Parish6,3113,2949,60565.7%
West Baton Rouge Parish6,2563,2669,52265.7%
St. James Parish5,3032,7698,07265.7%
Pointe Coupee Parish5,1882,7087,89665.7%
Morehouse Parish4,8732,5447,41765.7%
Union Parish4,7602,4857,24565.7%
Assumption Parish4,6812,4447,12565.7%
Plaquemines Parish4,6232,4137,03665.7%
East Feliciana Parish4,5692,3856,95465.7%
Sabine Parish4,5252,3626,88765.7%
Richland Parish4,2632,2256,48865.7%
Franklin Parish4,1532,1686,32165.7%
Grant Parish4,1412,1626,30365.7%
Allen Parish4,0722,1266,19865.7%
Concordia Parish3,7021,9335,63565.7%
Jackson Parish3,3301,7385,06865.7%
LaSalle Parish3,0751,6054,68065.7%
Bienville Parish2,9281,5294,45765.7%
West Feliciana Parish2,9181,5234,44165.7%
Claiborne Parish2,7801,4514,23165.7%
Winn Parish2,6691,3934,06265.7%
St. Helena Parish2,6191,3673,98665.7%
West Carroll Parish2,1101,1013,21165.7%
Catahoula Parish2,0391,0643,10365.7%
Caldwell Parish2,0251,0573,08265.7%
Madison Parish1,9761,0313,00765.7%
Red River Parish1,7148952,60965.7%
Cameron Parish1,5498092,35865.7%
East Carroll Parish1,2476511,89865.7%
Tensas Parish1,0305381,56865.7%

Projected 2026 votes: each parish's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 2 is forecast as a property tax measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Louisiana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wafb.com, theballotbrief.com, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.