SearchThe Weighting Room
12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 state legislative forecast

Oregon House forecast

Democrats win control of the Oregon House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 60 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 60On the ballot 60Oregon SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
38 to 42
Median 40 · 31 for a majority
Favored to flip
3to D0to R
After 2024: 32 D, 24 R, 4 other
Environment
D +11.5
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Oregon House map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2: Democrats <1%District 3: Democrats <1%District 4: Democrats <1%District 5: Democrats >99%District 6: Democrats 28%District 7: Democrats >99%District 8: Democrats >99%District 9: Democrats <1%District 10: Democrats >99%District 11: Democrats <1%District 12: Democrats 29%District 13: Democrats >99%District 14: Democrats >99%District 15: Democrats 35%District 16: Democrats >99%District 17: Democrats <1%District 18: Democrats <1%District 19: Democrats >99%District 20: Democrats >99%District 21: Democrats 96%District 22: Democrats 98%District 23: Democrats 5%District 24: Democrats <1%District 25: Democrats >99%District 26: Democrats >99%District 27: Democrats >99%District 28: Democrats >99%District 29: Democrats >99%District 30: Democrats >99%District 31: Democrats 14%District 32: Democrats 87%District 33: Democrats >99%District 34: Democrats >99%District 35: Democrats >99%District 36: Democrats >99%District 37: Democrats >99%District 38: Democrats >99%District 39: Democrats >99%District 40: Democrats >99%District 41: Democrats >99%District 42: Democrats >99%District 43: Democrats >99%District 44: Democrats >99%District 45: Democrats >99%District 46: Democrats >99%District 47: Democrats >99%District 48: Democrats 93%District 49: Democrats >99%District 50: Democrats >99%District 51: Democrats 5%District 52: Democrats 85%District 53: Democrats >99%District 54: Democrats >99%District 55: Democrats <1%District 56: Democrats <1%District 57: Democrats <1%District 58: Democrats <1%District 59: Democrats <1%District 60: Democrats <1%123456789101112131415161718202324313238525354555657585960
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 40 D to 20 R
District 5: Democrats win >99%District 7: Democrats win >99%District 8: Democrats win >99%District 10: Democrats win >99%District 13: Democrats win >99%District 14: Democrats win >99%District 16: Democrats win >99%District 19: Democrats win >99%District 20: Democrats win >99%District 25: Democrats win >99%District 26: Democrats win >99%District 27: Democrats win >99%District 28: Democrats win >99%District 29: Democrats win >99%District 30: Democrats win >99%District 33: Democrats win >99%District 34: Democrats win >99%District 35: Democrats win >99%District 36: Democrats win >99%District 37: Democrats win >99%District 38: Democrats win >99%District 39: Democrats win >99%District 40: Democrats win >99%District 41: Democrats win >99%District 42: Democrats win >99%District 43: Democrats win >99%District 44: Democrats win >99%District 45: Democrats win >99%District 46: Democrats win >99%District 47: Democrats win >99%District 49: Democrats win >99%District 50: Democrats win >99%District 54: Democrats win >99%District 53: Democrats win >99%District 22: Democrats win 98%District 21: Democrats win 96%District 48: Democrats win 93%District 32: Democrats win 87%District 52: Democrats win 85%District 15: Democrats win 35%District 12: Democrats win 29%District 6: Democrats win 28%District 31: Democrats win 14%District 51: Democrats win 5%District 23: Democrats win 5%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 11: Democrats win <1%District 17: Democrats win <1%District 18: Democrats win <1%District 24: Democrats win <1%District 55: Democrats win <1%District 56: Democrats win <1%District 57: Democrats win <1%District 58: Democrats win <1%District 59: Democrats win <1%District 60: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
31 for a majority323947

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
15Shelly Boshart Davis 2024Joanna Robinson vs Shelly Boshart DavisR +0.9R +2.535%17,88018,78137,219Lean R
12Darin Harbick 2024Amber Smith vs Darin HarbickR +7.4R +3.629%18,84820,26039,704Lean R
6Kim Wallan 2024John Holm vs Kim WallanR +10.6R +3.628%17,49518,81336,861Lean R
52Jeff Helfrich 2024Hank Sanders vs Scott HegeR +7.9D +6.785%23,36520,43544,467Likely D
31Darcey Edwards 2024Tom Forest vs Darcey EdwardsR +14.4R +6.914%18,76521,52940,907Likely R
32Cyrus B Javadi 2024Cyrus Javadi vs Max ShermanD +5.4D +7.787%28,32024,25653,376Likely D
48Hoa H Nguyen 2024Lamar Wise vs Andrew MorrisonR +17.2D +9.993%19,64716,11136,302Likely D
51Christine Drazan 2024Darla Mead vs Matt BunchR +19.4R +10.65%35,70144,12281,039Likely R
23Anna M Scharf 2024Kriss Wright vs Anna ScharfR +13.9R +11.05%16,98221,19338,757Likely R
21Kevin L Mannix 2024Michael Welsh vs Kevin MannixD +5.4D +11.796%15,67612,39728,501Likely D

Projected Oregon House vote

60 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats1,433,85260.1%
Republicans922,14938.7%
Independents and others28,4671.2%
Total2,384,466100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.