2026 ballot measure forecast
Florida Amendment 1
Bigger rainy day fund with required deposits
Raises the Budget Stabilization Fund cap to 25% of general revenue and requires annual transfers of $750 million until the cap is met, with limited suspension and withdrawal rules. The forecast has Yes at 65.2 percent against the 60 percent it needs, a 70% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
70%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
65.2%80% range 52 to 76
Needs
60%60 percent of the votes on the question
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 60
2035506580- History and structure
- 65.2% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 65.2% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Florida constitutional amendments need 60% of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Republican Party of Florida endorses; Jolly D supports with guardrails; Gov. DeSantis calls it foolish and Donalds R opposes; Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Democratic parties urge no; no money reported.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +2,547,062 net votes from 67 countiesStatewide Yes +30.3, a 2,547,062 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
8,395,008 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5,471,035 | 65.2% |
| No | 2,923,973 | 34.8% |
| Total | 8,395,008 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade County | 502,929 | 265,647 | 768,576 | 65.4% |
| Broward County | 455,298 | 211,177 | 666,475 | 68.3% |
| Palm Beach County | 386,445 | 193,084 | 579,529 | 66.7% |
| Hillsborough | 350,983 | 178,445 | 529,428 | 66.3% |
| Orange County | 321,203 | 151,302 | 472,505 | 68.0% |
| Pinellas County | 281,168 | 144,361 | 425,529 | 66.1% |
| Duval County | 251,550 | 126,966 | 378,516 | 66.5% |
| Lee County | 191,984 | 109,868 | 301,852 | 63.6% |
| Brevard County | 180,761 | 99,775 | 280,536 | 64.4% |
| Polk County | 169,303 | 93,369 | 262,672 | 64.5% |
| Volusia County | 155,063 | 85,955 | 241,018 | 64.3% |
| Pasco County | 153,826 | 86,718 | 240,544 | 63.9% |
| Sarasota County | 142,946 | 77,902 | 220,848 | 64.7% |
| Seminole County | 129,536 | 66,007 | 195,543 | 66.2% |
| Manatee County | 115,103 | 64,334 | 179,437 | 64.1% |
| Lake County | 109,854 | 61,745 | 171,599 | 64.0% |
| Collier County | 106,512 | 62,398 | 168,910 | 63.1% |
| Marion County | 104,800 | 60,958 | 165,758 | 63.2% |
| St. Johns County | 93,960 | 54,593 | 148,553 | 63.3% |
| St. Lucie County | 90,300 | 47,177 | 137,477 | 65.7% |
| Leon County | 90,152 | 40,867 | 131,019 | 68.8% |
| Escambia County | 83,125 | 45,605 | 128,730 | 64.6% |
| Osceola County | 80,537 | 40,646 | 121,183 | 66.5% |
| Alachua County | 76,508 | 34,803 | 111,311 | 68.7% |
| Clay County | 60,135 | 36,409 | 96,544 | 62.3% |
| Charlotte County | 60,391 | 35,543 | 95,934 | 63.0% |
| Okaloosa County | 54,039 | 33,308 | 87,347 | 61.9% |
| Sumter County | 54,363 | 32,600 | 86,963 | 62.5% |
| Hernando County | 53,083 | 31,752 | 84,835 | 62.6% |
| Santa Rosa County | 50,602 | 32,770 | 83,372 | 60.7% |
| Indian River County | 50,113 | 28,532 | 78,645 | 63.7% |
| Martin County | 49,383 | 28,646 | 78,029 | 63.3% |
| Citrus County | 47,666 | 29,922 | 77,588 | 61.4% |
| Bay County | 45,741 | 28,997 | 74,738 | 61.2% |
| Flagler County | 38,977 | 22,289 | 61,266 | 63.6% |
| Nassau County | 29,976 | 18,942 | 48,918 | 61.3% |
| Highlands County | 25,785 | 15,727 | 41,512 | 62.1% |
| Walton County | 22,351 | 15,122 | 37,473 | 59.6% |
| Monroe County | 22,519 | 12,281 | 34,800 | 64.7% |
| Putnam County | 17,588 | 11,165 | 28,753 | 61.2% |
| Columbia County | 16,132 | 10,390 | 26,522 | 60.8% |
| Levy County | 11,568 | 7,450 | 19,018 | 60.8% |
| Gadsden County | 13,040 | 5,662 | 18,702 | 69.7% |
| Jackson County | 11,174 | 7,022 | 18,196 | 61.4% |
| Suwannee County | 10,368 | 7,166 | 17,534 | 59.1% |
| Wakulla County | 9,668 | 6,019 | 15,687 | 61.6% |
| Okeechobee County | 7,528 | 4,956 | 12,484 | 60.3% |
| Baker County | 6,633 | 5,071 | 11,704 | 56.7% |
| Bradford County | 6,633 | 4,466 | 11,099 | 59.8% |
| DeSoto County | 6,217 | 3,838 | 10,055 | 61.8% |
| Washington County | 5,851 | 4,184 | 10,035 | 58.3% |
| Hendry County | 6,149 | 3,704 | 9,853 | 62.4% |
| Gilchrist County | 4,797 | 3,511 | 8,308 | 57.7% |
| Taylor County | 4,881 | 3,342 | 8,223 | 59.4% |
| Madison County | 4,768 | 2,735 | 7,503 | 63.5% |
| Holmes County | 4,072 | 3,371 | 7,443 | 54.7% |
| Jefferson County | 4,644 | 2,536 | 7,180 | 64.7% |
| Gulf County | 4,172 | 2,754 | 6,926 | 60.2% |
| Dixie County | 3,809 | 2,842 | 6,651 | 57.3% |
| Hardee County | 3,947 | 2,643 | 6,590 | 59.9% |
| Franklin County | 3,432 | 2,130 | 5,562 | 61.7% |
| Calhoun County | 3,031 | 2,208 | 5,239 | 57.9% |
| Union County | 2,984 | 2,185 | 5,169 | 57.7% |
| Hamilton County | 2,977 | 1,800 | 4,777 | 62.3% |
| Glades County | 2,590 | 1,699 | 4,289 | 60.4% |
| Lafayette County | 1,748 | 1,378 | 3,126 | 55.9% |
| Liberty County | 1,664 | 1,204 | 2,868 | 58.0% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 60.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Amendment 1 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Florida's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wlrn.org, theballotbrief.com, constitutionalinitiatives.dos.fl.gov. All measures.