2026 forecast · Georgia Public Service Commission, District 3
Peter Hubbard is very likely to win Georgia's public service commission, district 3 race.
Peter Hubbard vs Fitz Johnson, with Peter Hubbard running again. The model has Hubbard ahead by 8.0 points, with a 92 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +8.0Polls D +1.9Updated October 22, 2026
Peter Hubbard
Democrat
53.5%
2,497,795 projected votes
Fitz Johnson
Republican
45.5%
2,125,741 projected votes
92%Hubbard
8%Johnson
Hubbard very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Hubbard wins about 92 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Hubbard +1,165,662 net votes from 37 countiesStatewide D +8.0, a 372,054 vote marginJohnson +793,608 net votes from 122 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,670,238 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Peter Hubbard D | 2,497,795 | 53.5% |
| Fitz Johnson R | 2,125,741 | 45.5% |
| Other candidates | 46,702 | 1.0% |
| Total | 4,670,238 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
159 counties| County | Hubbard | Johnson | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,497,794 | 2,125,740 | 46,708 | 4,670,242 | D +8.0 |
| Fulton County | 388,541 | 98,860 | 4,923 | 492,324 | D +58.8 |
| Gwinnett County | 237,287 | 121,264 | 3,623 | 362,174 | D +32.0 |
| Cobb County | 224,508 | 126,981 | 3,551 | 355,040 | D +27.5 |
| DeKalb County | 300,514 | 39,542 | 3,434 | 343,490 | D +76.0 |
| Cherokee County | 43,539 | 91,775 | 1,366 | 136,680 | R +35.3 |
| Chatham County | 82,957 | 44,591 | 1,288 | 128,836 | D +29.8 |
| Forsyth County | 40,066 | 75,465 | 1,167 | 116,698 | R +30.3 |
| Henry County | 79,049 | 32,713 | 1,129 | 112,891 | D +41.0 |
| Clayton County | 98,911 | 9,429 | 1,095 | 109,435 | D +81.8 |
| Hall County | 23,658 | 61,676 | 862 | 86,196 | R +44.1 |
| Richmond County | 60,462 | 19,623 | 809 | 80,894 | D +50.5 |
| Paulding County | 32,275 | 46,061 | 791 | 79,127 | R +17.4 |
| Muscogee County | 52,644 | 23,269 | 767 | 76,680 | D +38.3 |
| Columbia County | 29,009 | 44,783 | 745 | 74,537 | R +21.2 |
| Coweta County | 25,891 | 46,481 | 731 | 73,103 | R +28.2 |
| Houston County | 33,793 | 36,744 | 713 | 71,250 | R +4.1 |
| Fayette County | 33,660 | 30,654 | 650 | 64,964 | D +4.6 |
| Bibb County | 43,806 | 20,327 | 647 | 64,780 | D +36.2 |
| Douglas County | 45,062 | 17,353 | 631 | 63,046 | D +44.0 |
| Carroll County | 15,970 | 35,452 | 520 | 51,942 | R +37.5 |
| Clarke County | 38,166 | 13,057 | 518 | 51,741 | D +48.5 |
| Newton County | 32,393 | 18,372 | 513 | 51,278 | D +27.3 |
| Walton County | 13,576 | 34,994 | 491 | 49,061 | R +43.7 |
| Bartow County | 12,629 | 35,053 | 482 | 48,164 | R +46.6 |
| Lowndes County | 20,036 | 23,508 | 440 | 43,984 | R +7.9 |
| Rockdale County | 32,588 | 8,570 | 416 | 41,574 | D +57.8 |
| Floyd County | 12,096 | 26,821 | 393 | 39,310 | R +37.5 |
| Glynn County | 15,501 | 22,985 | 389 | 38,875 | R +19.3 |
| Jackson County | 8,115 | 29,767 | 382 | 38,264 | R +56.6 |
| Barrow County | 10,844 | 24,876 | 362 | 36,082 | R +38.9 |
| Whitfield County | 9,544 | 24,056 | 340 | 33,940 | R +42.8 |
| Dougherty County | 25,386 | 7,315 | 330 | 33,031 | D +54.7 |
| Bulloch County | 11,853 | 18,515 | 306 | 30,674 | R +21.7 |
| Effingham County | 8,017 | 21,761 | 302 | 30,080 | R +45.7 |
| Catoosa County | 7,175 | 22,187 | 296 | 29,658 | R +50.6 |
| Spalding County | 13,029 | 15,862 | 292 | 29,183 | R +9.7 |
| Troup County | 11,420 | 16,295 | 280 | 27,995 | R +17.4 |
| Walker County | 5,971 | 21,347 | 276 | 27,594 | R +55.7 |
| Oconee County | 7,379 | 15,686 | 233 | 23,298 | R +35.7 |
| Gordon County | 4,200 | 18,720 | 232 | 23,152 | R +62.7 |
| Camden County | 7,686 | 14,646 | 226 | 22,558 | R +30.9 |
| Liberty County | 14,407 | 6,864 | 215 | 21,486 | D +35.1 |
| Laurens County | 7,701 | 13,309 | 212 | 21,222 | R +26.4 |
| Bryan County | 6,707 | 13,527 | 204 | 20,438 | R +33.4 |
| Habersham County | 3,128 | 16,769 | 201 | 20,098 | R +67.9 |
| Thomas County | 8,221 | 11,460 | 199 | 19,880 | R +16.3 |
| Harris County | 5,520 | 13,530 | 192 | 19,242 | R +41.6 |
| Baldwin County | 9,751 | 8,153 | 181 | 18,085 | D +8.8 |
| Pickens County | 2,893 | 14,532 | 176 | 17,601 | R +66.1 |
| Polk County | 3,497 | 12,836 | 165 | 16,498 | R +56.6 |
| Gilmer County | 2,839 | 13,052 | 161 | 16,052 | R +63.6 |
| Dawson County | 2,383 | 13,333 | 159 | 15,875 | R +69.0 |
| Lumpkin County | 3,117 | 12,370 | 156 | 15,643 | R +59.1 |
| Union County | 2,654 | 12,765 | 155 | 15,574 | R +64.9 |
| Tift County | 5,258 | 10,133 | 155 | 15,546 | R +31.4 |
| Lee County | 4,661 | 10,676 | 155 | 15,492 | R +38.8 |
| Monroe County | 4,248 | 11,027 | 154 | 15,429 | R +43.9 |
| Colquitt County | 4,065 | 11,054 | 153 | 15,272 | R +45.8 |
| Murray County | 2,189 | 12,340 | 147 | 14,676 | R +69.2 |
| Coffee County | 4,354 | 10,078 | 146 | 14,578 | R +39.3 |
| White County | 2,326 | 12,053 | 146 | 14,525 | R +67.0 |
| Madison County | 3,175 | 11,088 | 145 | 14,408 | R +54.9 |
| Fannin County | 2,400 | 11,536 | 141 | 14,077 | R +64.9 |
| Jones County | 4,857 | 8,911 | 140 | 13,908 | R +29.1 |
| Haralson County | 1,620 | 12,026 | 138 | 13,784 | R +75.5 |
| Ware County | 4,003 | 8,917 | 130 | 13,050 | R +37.7 |
| Hart County | 2,483 | 9,783 | 124 | 12,390 | R +58.9 |
| Peach County | 6,133 | 5,814 | 121 | 12,068 | D +2.6 |
| Wayne County | 2,447 | 9,435 | 120 | 12,002 | R +58.2 |
| Upson County | 3,936 | 7,922 | 120 | 11,978 | R +33.3 |
| Sumter County | 6,502 | 4,898 | 115 | 11,515 | D +13.9 |
| Butts County | 3,455 | 7,919 | 114 | 11,488 | R +38.9 |
| Putnam County | 3,410 | 7,962 | 115 | 11,487 | R +39.6 |
| Greene County | 4,057 | 7,286 | 115 | 11,458 | R +28.2 |
| Stephens County | 2,105 | 9,135 | 113 | 11,353 | R +61.9 |
| Morgan County | 3,122 | 8,048 | 112 | 11,282 | R +43.7 |
| Decatur County | 4,615 | 5,954 | 107 | 10,676 | R +12.5 |
| Franklin County | 1,235 | 9,099 | 104 | 10,438 | R +75.3 |
| Pike County | 1,354 | 8,861 | 103 | 10,318 | R +72.8 |
| Meriwether County | 4,135 | 5,982 | 103 | 10,220 | R +18.1 |
| Burke County | 5,173 | 4,765 | 100 | 10,038 | D +4.1 |
| Toombs County | 2,681 | 7,191 | 100 | 9,972 | R +45.2 |
| Grady County | 3,306 | 6,383 | 98 | 9,787 | R +31.4 |
| McDuffie County | 3,793 | 5,574 | 95 | 9,462 | R +18.8 |
| Chattooga County | 1,849 | 7,466 | 93 | 9,408 | R +59.7 |
| Rabun County | 1,980 | 7,090 | 91 | 9,161 | R +55.8 |
| Lamar County | 2,569 | 6,379 | 91 | 9,039 | R +42.1 |
| Washington County | 4,889 | 3,893 | 88 | 8,870 | D +11.2 |
| Emanuel County | 2,820 | 5,955 | 89 | 8,864 | R +35.4 |
| Banks County | 743 | 7,901 | 87 | 8,731 | R +82.0 |
| Elbert County | 2,546 | 5,897 | 85 | 8,528 | R +39.3 |
| Pierce County | 875 | 7,549 | 85 | 8,509 | R +78.4 |
| Worth County | 2,310 | 6,090 | 85 | 8,485 | R +44.5 |
| Mitchell County | 3,967 | 4,248 | 83 | 8,298 | R +3.4 |
| Tattnall County | 2,133 | 6,025 | 82 | 8,240 | R +47.2 |
| Dodge County | 2,102 | 5,732 | 78 | 7,912 | R +45.9 |
| Towns County | 1,485 | 6,234 | 77 | 7,796 | R +60.9 |
| Oglethorpe County | 2,347 | 5,222 | 76 | 7,645 | R +37.6 |
| Jasper County | 1,730 | 5,833 | 77 | 7,640 | R +53.7 |
| Crisp County | 2,993 | 4,526 | 76 | 7,595 | R +20.2 |
| Appling County | 1,467 | 6,027 | 76 | 7,570 | R +60.2 |
| Brantley County | 631 | 6,651 | 74 | 7,356 | R +81.8 |
| Berrien County | 1,111 | 6,054 | 73 | 7,238 | R +68.3 |
| Dade County | 1,330 | 5,611 | 71 | 7,012 | R +61.0 |
| Jefferson County | 3,885 | 2,968 | 70 | 6,923 | D +13.3 |
| Brooks County | 2,720 | 3,854 | 66 | 6,640 | R +17.1 |
| Cook County | 1,982 | 4,577 | 67 | 6,626 | R +39.2 |
| McIntosh County | 2,465 | 3,777 | 64 | 6,306 | R +20.8 |
| Screven County | 2,545 | 3,583 | 62 | 6,190 | R +16.8 |
| Ben Hill County | 2,279 | 3,813 | 62 | 6,154 | R +24.9 |
| Long County | 2,367 | 3,516 | 60 | 5,943 | R +19.3 |
| Crawford County | 1,594 | 3,925 | 56 | 5,575 | R +41.8 |
| Bleckley County | 1,256 | 4,221 | 55 | 5,532 | R +53.6 |
| Jeff Davis County | 865 | 4,411 | 54 | 5,330 | R +66.5 |
| Heard County | 823 | 4,376 | 53 | 5,252 | R +67.7 |
| Macon County | 3,082 | 1,493 | 46 | 4,621 | D +34.4 |
| Wilkes County | 2,028 | 2,525 | 46 | 4,599 | R +10.8 |
| Early County | 2,220 | 2,217 | 45 | 4,482 | D +0.1 |
| Wilkinson County | 2,041 | 2,304 | 45 | 4,390 | R +6.0 |
| Charlton County | 1,001 | 3,321 | 44 | 4,366 | R +53.1 |
| Bacon County | 569 | 3,718 | 43 | 4,330 | R +72.7 |
| Lincoln County | 1,295 | 2,979 | 43 | 4,317 | R +39.0 |
| Candler County | 1,194 | 2,918 | 42 | 4,154 | R +41.5 |
| Telfair County | 1,506 | 2,594 | 42 | 4,142 | R +26.3 |
| Dooly County | 2,098 | 1,953 | 40 | 4,091 | D +3.5 |
| Hancock County | 3,067 | 955 | 40 | 4,062 | D +52.0 |
| Terrell County | 2,375 | 1,627 | 40 | 4,042 | D +18.5 |
| Pulaski County | 1,281 | 2,695 | 40 | 4,016 | R +35.2 |
| Twiggs County | 1,953 | 1,940 | 39 | 3,932 | D +0.3 |
| Irwin County | 1,001 | 2,888 | 39 | 3,928 | R +48.0 |
| Evans County | 1,203 | 2,679 | 38 | 3,920 | R +37.6 |
| Johnson County | 1,120 | 2,647 | 39 | 3,806 | R +40.1 |
| Montgomery County | 945 | 2,695 | 36 | 3,676 | R +47.6 |
| Seminole County | 1,165 | 2,452 | 37 | 3,654 | R +35.3 |
| Taylor County | 1,364 | 2,216 | 36 | 3,616 | R +23.6 |
| Turner County | 1,358 | 2,154 | 36 | 3,548 | R +22.4 |
| Lanier County | 1,042 | 2,319 | 33 | 3,394 | R +37.6 |
| Jenkins County | 1,259 | 1,986 | 33 | 3,278 | R +22.2 |
| Marion County | 1,279 | 1,931 | 32 | 3,242 | R +20.1 |
| Wilcox County | 879 | 2,324 | 33 | 3,236 | R +44.7 |
| Talbot County | 1,953 | 1,117 | 31 | 3,101 | D +27.0 |
| Treutlen County | 911 | 1,848 | 28 | 2,787 | R +33.6 |
| Randolph County | 1,662 | 1,095 | 27 | 2,784 | D +20.4 |
| Atkinson County | 694 | 1,952 | 26 | 2,672 | R +47.1 |
| Clinch County | 656 | 1,837 | 25 | 2,518 | R +46.9 |
| Miller County | 646 | 1,778 | 24 | 2,448 | R +46.3 |
| Warren County | 1,383 | 983 | 24 | 2,390 | D +16.7 |
| Wheeler County | 740 | 1,615 | 24 | 2,379 | R +36.8 |
| Schley County | 423 | 1,660 | 21 | 2,104 | R +58.8 |
| Calhoun County | 1,311 | 742 | 21 | 2,074 | D +27.5 |
| Stewart County | 1,333 | 610 | 19 | 1,962 | D +36.9 |
| Glascock County | 126 | 1,306 | 14 | 1,446 | R +81.6 |
| Chattahoochee County | 726 | 697 | 15 | 1,438 | D +2.0 |
| Baker County | 625 | 711 | 13 | 1,349 | R +6.3 |
| Clay County | 785 | 510 | 13 | 1,308 | D +21.1 |
| Echols County | 134 | 1,095 | 12 | 1,241 | R +77.5 |
| Webster County | 556 | 646 | 12 | 1,214 | R +7.5 |
| Quitman County | 495 | 542 | 11 | 1,048 | R +4.5 |
| Taliaferro County | 530 | 276 | 9 | 815 | D +31.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +15.2 and D +0.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +4.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +5.1 |
| Blend of every leg | D +5.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +8.3 |
| With polls, 5% weight | D +8.0 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +15.2 and D +0.7.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Hubbard | Johnson | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 815 LV | 2026-08-01 | 39 | 38 | D +1.0 |