2026 forecast · Texas Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals, Place 3
Thomas Smith is slightly favored to win Texas's judge, court of criminal appeals, place 3 race.
Okey Anyiam vs Thomas Smith, an open seat. The model has Smith ahead by 1.7 points, with a 63 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel R +1.7Polls R +13.6Updated October 22, 2026
Okey Anyiam
Democrat
46.9%
4,688,908 projected votes
Thomas Smith
Republican
48.6%
4,862,622 projected votes
63%Smith
37%Anyiam
Smith slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Smith wins about 63 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Anyiam +1,369,613 net votes from 26 countiesStatewide R +1.7, a 173,711 vote marginSmith +1,543,324 net votes from 228 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Smith R | 4,862,622 | 48.6% |
| Okey Anyiam D | 4,688,908 | 46.9% |
| Mark Ash | 447,394 | 4.5% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Anyiam | Smith | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,688,910 | 4,862,621 | 447,385 | 9,998,916 | R +1.7 |
| Harris County | 804,138 | 518,275 | 61,941 | 1,384,354 | D +20.6 |
| Dallas County | 522,957 | 220,372 | 34,817 | 778,146 | D +38.9 |
| Tarrant County | 364,807 | 323,333 | 32,232 | 720,372 | D +5.8 |
| Bexar County | 414,452 | 239,897 | 30,650 | 684,999 | D +25.5 |
| Travis County | 415,622 | 110,681 | 24,652 | 550,955 | D +55.4 |
| Collin County | 209,997 | 208,594 | 19,607 | 438,198 | D +0.3 |
| Denton County | 173,211 | 190,503 | 17,036 | 380,750 | R +4.5 |
| Fort Bend County | 166,956 | 126,326 | 13,736 | 307,018 | D +13.2 |
| Williamson County | 139,249 | 115,118 | 11,914 | 266,281 | D +9.1 |
| Montgomery County | 68,608 | 173,013 | 11,317 | 252,938 | R +41.3 |
| El Paso County | 153,332 | 68,499 | 10,391 | 232,222 | D +36.5 |
| Hidalgo County | 115,379 | 71,589 | 8,758 | 195,726 | D +22.4 |
| Brazoria County | 53,915 | 75,728 | 6,073 | 135,716 | R +16.1 |
| Galveston County | 50,991 | 77,863 | 6,036 | 134,890 | R +19.9 |
| Bell County | 50,384 | 59,175 | 5,131 | 114,690 | R +7.7 |
| Nueces County | 53,934 | 53,603 | 5,038 | 112,575 | D +0.3 |
| Hays County | 62,131 | 42,635 | 4,907 | 109,673 | D +17.8 |
| Lubbock County | 34,493 | 69,342 | 4,863 | 108,698 | R +32.1 |
| Cameron County | 59,054 | 42,233 | 4,744 | 106,031 | D +15.9 |
| Smith County | 24,327 | 61,700 | 4,030 | 90,057 | R +41.5 |
| McLennan County | 31,835 | 52,925 | 3,970 | 88,730 | R +23.8 |
| Comal County | 23,649 | 58,892 | 3,866 | 86,407 | R +40.8 |
| Ellis County | 25,700 | 51,805 | 3,629 | 81,134 | R +32.2 |
| Brazos County | 33,461 | 43,726 | 3,615 | 80,802 | R +12.7 |
| Jefferson County | 36,684 | 36,848 | 3,444 | 76,976 | R +0.2 |
| Parker County | 11,945 | 58,636 | 3,306 | 73,887 | R +63.2 |
| Guadalupe County | 25,251 | 41,865 | 3,144 | 70,260 | R +23.6 |
| Johnson County | 16,057 | 49,011 | 3,048 | 68,116 | R +48.4 |
| Webb County | 37,247 | 20,230 | 2,693 | 60,170 | D +28.3 |
| Randall County | 11,326 | 43,464 | 2,566 | 57,356 | R +56.0 |
| Kaufman County | 18,108 | 34,898 | 2,484 | 55,490 | R +30.3 |
| Grayson County | 11,971 | 39,979 | 2,434 | 54,384 | R +51.5 |
| Rockwall County | 14,614 | 34,221 | 2,287 | 51,122 | R +38.4 |
| Midland County | 10,003 | 38,603 | 2,277 | 50,883 | R +56.2 |
| Taylor County | 12,311 | 34,505 | 2,194 | 49,010 | R +45.3 |
| Gregg County | 11,628 | 27,240 | 1,821 | 40,689 | R +38.4 |
| Wichita County | 12,158 | 26,286 | 1,801 | 40,245 | R +35.1 |
| Tom Green County | 10,729 | 27,412 | 1,786 | 39,927 | R +41.8 |
| Hunt County | 7,913 | 28,799 | 1,719 | 38,431 | R +54.4 |
| Ector County | 8,824 | 25,588 | 1,612 | 36,024 | R +46.5 |
| Bastrop County | 15,165 | 18,487 | 1,576 | 35,228 | R +9.4 |
| Henderson County | 5,738 | 26,170 | 1,494 | 33,402 | R +61.2 |
| Bowie County | 8,678 | 22,167 | 1,445 | 32,290 | R +41.8 |
| Hood County | 5,426 | 24,289 | 1,392 | 31,107 | R +60.6 |
| Victoria County | 8,828 | 20,645 | 1,380 | 30,853 | R +38.3 |
| Orange County | 4,893 | 24,439 | 1,374 | 30,706 | R +63.6 |
| Wise County | 4,210 | 25,075 | 1,371 | 30,656 | R +68.1 |
| Angelina County | 7,264 | 21,170 | 1,332 | 29,766 | R +46.7 |
| Potter County | 8,750 | 19,457 | 1,321 | 29,528 | R +36.3 |
| Liberty County | 4,695 | 20,461 | 1,179 | 26,335 | R +59.9 |
| Harrison County | 6,170 | 18,319 | 1,147 | 25,636 | R +47.4 |
| Kerr County | 5,595 | 18,381 | 1,123 | 25,099 | R +51.0 |
| Kendall County | 5,136 | 18,565 | 1,110 | 24,811 | R +54.1 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,891 | 20,298 | 1,086 | 24,275 | R +71.7 |
| Walker County | 7,432 | 15,672 | 1,082 | 24,186 | R +34.1 |
| Burnet County | 5,277 | 17,564 | 1,069 | 23,910 | R +51.4 |
| Hardin County | 2,715 | 19,714 | 1,051 | 23,480 | R +72.4 |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,047 | 14,690 | 1,018 | 22,755 | R +33.6 |
| Coryell County | 6,956 | 14,722 | 1,016 | 22,694 | R +34.2 |
| Wilson County | 5,286 | 16,263 | 1,009 | 22,558 | R +48.7 |
| San Patricio County | 7,597 | 13,714 | 998 | 22,309 | R +27.4 |
| Waller County | 7,634 | 12,977 | 965 | 21,576 | R +24.8 |
| Wood County | 2,910 | 17,230 | 943 | 21,083 | R +67.9 |
| Medina County | 5,830 | 14,054 | 931 | 20,815 | R +39.5 |
| Polk County | 4,162 | 15,318 | 912 | 20,392 | R +54.7 |
| Chambers County | 3,157 | 15,378 | 869 | 19,404 | R +63.0 |
| Rusk County | 3,671 | 14,348 | 844 | 18,863 | R +56.6 |
| Lamar County | 3,562 | 14,192 | 832 | 18,586 | R +57.2 |
| Anderson County | 3,454 | 13,940 | 814 | 18,208 | R +57.6 |
| Cherokee County | 3,143 | 13,749 | 792 | 17,684 | R +60.0 |
| Cooke County | 2,630 | 14,070 | 782 | 17,482 | R +65.4 |
| Navarro County | 4,073 | 12,372 | 771 | 17,216 | R +48.2 |
| Upshur County | 2,381 | 13,683 | 752 | 16,816 | R +67.2 |
| Erath County | 2,596 | 12,769 | 719 | 16,084 | R +63.3 |
| Washington County | 3,353 | 11,846 | 712 | 15,911 | R +53.4 |
| Atascosa County | 4,776 | 10,339 | 709 | 15,824 | R +35.2 |
| Brown County | 1,815 | 12,315 | 662 | 14,792 | R +71.0 |
| Caldwell County | 6,680 | 7,193 | 649 | 14,522 | R +3.5 |
| Gillespie County | 2,735 | 11,096 | 648 | 14,479 | R +57.8 |
| Wharton County | 3,532 | 10,262 | 646 | 14,440 | R +46.6 |
| Starr County | 8,377 | 5,334 | 643 | 14,354 | D +21.2 |
| Hopkins County | 2,678 | 10,961 | 639 | 14,278 | R +58.0 |
| Fannin County | 2,123 | 11,263 | 626 | 14,012 | R +65.2 |
| Hill County | 2,411 | 10,958 | 627 | 13,996 | R +61.1 |
| Jasper County | 2,096 | 10,641 | 597 | 13,334 | R +64.1 |
| Maverick County | 7,283 | 5,313 | 590 | 13,186 | D +14.9 |
| Austin County | 2,265 | 10,093 | 579 | 12,937 | R +60.5 |
| Val Verde County | 5,535 | 6,689 | 572 | 12,796 | R +9.0 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,674 | 5,865 | 541 | 12,080 | R +1.6 |
| Llano County | 2,300 | 9,220 | 540 | 12,060 | R +57.4 |
| Cass County | 1,971 | 9,396 | 533 | 11,900 | R +62.4 |
| Matagorda County | 2,949 | 8,303 | 526 | 11,778 | R +45.5 |
| Grimes County | 2,118 | 9,045 | 523 | 11,686 | R +59.3 |
| Fayette County | 2,119 | 9,014 | 521 | 11,654 | R +59.2 |
| Bandera County | 2,067 | 8,997 | 518 | 11,582 | R +59.8 |
| Aransas County | 2,381 | 8,472 | 508 | 11,361 | R +53.6 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,670 | 9,129 | 506 | 11,305 | R +66.0 |
| San Jacinto County | 1,970 | 8,642 | 498 | 11,110 | R +60.1 |
| Milam County | 2,140 | 7,167 | 435 | 9,742 | R +51.6 |
| Lampasas County | 1,854 | 7,331 | 431 | 9,616 | R +57.0 |
| Panola County | 1,536 | 7,647 | 430 | 9,613 | R +63.6 |
| Kleberg County | 4,552 | 4,581 | 427 | 9,560 | R +0.3 |
| Montague County | 924 | 7,873 | 412 | 9,209 | R +75.5 |
| Lavaca County | 1,038 | 7,674 | 408 | 9,120 | R +72.8 |
| Titus County | 1,950 | 6,595 | 401 | 8,946 | R +51.9 |
| Uvalde County | 3,344 | 5,105 | 395 | 8,844 | R +19.9 |
| Howard County | 1,743 | 6,562 | 389 | 8,694 | R +55.4 |
| Bee County | 2,826 | 5,420 | 387 | 8,633 | R +30.1 |
| Colorado County | 1,769 | 6,455 | 385 | 8,609 | R +54.4 |
| Hale County | 1,729 | 6,354 | 378 | 8,461 | R +54.7 |
| Shelby County | 1,449 | 6,623 | 378 | 8,450 | R +61.2 |
| Houston County | 1,780 | 6,227 | 375 | 8,382 | R +53.1 |
| Tyler County | 1,061 | 6,943 | 375 | 8,379 | R +70.2 |
| Bosque County | 1,362 | 6,582 | 372 | 8,316 | R +62.8 |
| Limestone County | 1,770 | 5,903 | 360 | 8,033 | R +51.5 |
| Burleson County | 1,307 | 6,181 | 350 | 7,838 | R +62.2 |
| Freestone County | 1,219 | 6,216 | 348 | 7,783 | R +64.2 |
| Leon County | 745 | 6,553 | 342 | 7,640 | R +76.0 |
| Lee County | 1,365 | 5,557 | 324 | 7,246 | R +57.9 |
| Eastland County | 803 | 6,095 | 324 | 7,222 | R +73.3 |
| Young County | 806 | 6,075 | 323 | 7,204 | R +73.1 |
| Hutchinson County | 720 | 6,155 | 323 | 7,198 | R +75.5 |
| Blanco County | 1,655 | 5,130 | 317 | 7,102 | R +48.9 |
| DeWitt County | 1,180 | 5,581 | 317 | 7,078 | R +62.2 |
| Robertson County | 1,711 | 4,904 | 310 | 6,925 | R +46.1 |
| Calhoun County | 1,709 | 4,848 | 307 | 6,864 | R +45.7 |
| Hockley County | 1,130 | 5,405 | 307 | 6,842 | R +62.5 |
| Gray County | 619 | 5,855 | 303 | 6,777 | R +77.3 |
| Gonzales County | 1,418 | 4,906 | 297 | 6,621 | R +52.7 |
| Jones County | 876 | 5,285 | 289 | 6,450 | R +68.4 |
| Trinity County | 1,033 | 4,954 | 281 | 6,268 | R +62.6 |
| Callahan County | 604 | 5,195 | 272 | 6,071 | R +75.6 |
| Falls County | 1,560 | 3,904 | 256 | 5,720 | R +41.0 |
| Rains County | 728 | 4,701 | 255 | 5,684 | R +69.9 |
| Comanche County | 707 | 4,627 | 249 | 5,583 | R +70.2 |
| Jackson County | 791 | 4,480 | 247 | 5,518 | R +66.8 |
| Willacy County | 3,038 | 2,068 | 239 | 5,345 | D +18.1 |
| Gaines County | 404 | 4,528 | 230 | 5,162 | R +79.9 |
| Scurry County | 633 | 4,236 | 228 | 5,097 | R +70.7 |
| Clay County | 512 | 4,313 | 226 | 5,051 | R +75.2 |
| Newton County | 871 | 3,934 | 225 | 5,030 | R +60.9 |
| Andrews County | 639 | 4,136 | 224 | 4,999 | R +70.0 |
| Red River County | 959 | 3,760 | 221 | 4,940 | R +56.7 |
| Sabine County | 499 | 4,118 | 217 | 4,834 | R +74.9 |
| Karnes County | 1,070 | 3,469 | 213 | 4,752 | R +50.5 |
| Frio County | 2,304 | 2,215 | 211 | 4,730 | D +1.9 |
| Madison County | 823 | 3,694 | 212 | 4,729 | R +60.7 |
| Morris County | 1,167 | 3,288 | 209 | 4,664 | R +45.5 |
| Nolan County | 902 | 3,532 | 207 | 4,641 | R +56.7 |
| Moore County | 742 | 3,661 | 206 | 4,609 | R +63.3 |
| Camp County | 1,032 | 3,331 | 205 | 4,568 | R +50.3 |
| Franklin County | 668 | 3,656 | 202 | 4,526 | R +66.0 |
| Live Oak County | 663 | 3,621 | 201 | 4,485 | R +66.0 |
| Somervell County | 704 | 3,573 | 199 | 4,476 | R +64.1 |
| Archer County | 403 | 3,710 | 193 | 4,306 | R +76.8 |
| Brewster County | 2,091 | 1,966 | 189 | 4,246 | D +3.0 |
| Pecos County | 1,274 | 2,704 | 186 | 4,164 | R +34.4 |
| Wilbarger County | 781 | 3,071 | 180 | 4,032 | R +56.8 |
| Zapata County | 2,134 | 1,708 | 180 | 4,022 | D +10.6 |
| Marion County | 968 | 2,869 | 180 | 4,017 | R +47.3 |
| Deaf Smith County | 935 | 2,842 | 177 | 3,954 | R +48.2 |
| Duval County | 2,260 | 1,502 | 176 | 3,938 | D +19.3 |
| Hamilton County | 547 | 3,125 | 172 | 3,844 | R +67.1 |
| Lamb County | 633 | 2,902 | 166 | 3,701 | R +61.3 |
| Runnels County | 387 | 3,109 | 164 | 3,660 | R +74.4 |
| Coleman County | 354 | 3,093 | 161 | 3,608 | R +75.9 |
| Goliad County | 723 | 2,646 | 157 | 3,526 | R +54.5 |
| Jack County | 280 | 3,080 | 158 | 3,518 | R +79.6 |
| Stephens County | 273 | 2,928 | 150 | 3,351 | R +79.2 |
| San Augustine County | 711 | 2,438 | 147 | 3,296 | R +52.4 |
| Dawson County | 626 | 2,450 | 144 | 3,220 | R +56.6 |
| Ward County | 580 | 2,441 | 141 | 3,162 | R +58.8 |
| Terry County | 541 | 2,460 | 141 | 3,142 | R +61.1 |
| Dimmit County | 1,962 | 1,022 | 140 | 3,124 | D +30.1 |
| Zavala County | 2,072 | 858 | 138 | 3,068 | D +39.6 |
| McCulloch County | 400 | 2,472 | 134 | 3,006 | R +68.9 |
| Reeves County | 1,261 | 1,609 | 135 | 3,005 | R +11.6 |
| Carson County | 244 | 2,322 | 120 | 2,686 | R +77.3 |
| Refugio County | 801 | 1,745 | 119 | 2,665 | R +35.4 |
| Ochiltree County | 223 | 2,242 | 115 | 2,580 | R +78.3 |
| Mitchell County | 319 | 1,996 | 109 | 2,424 | R +69.2 |
| San Saba County | 233 | 2,066 | 108 | 2,407 | R +76.2 |
| Brooks County | 1,499 | 748 | 105 | 2,352 | D +31.9 |
| Mills County | 223 | 1,985 | 104 | 2,312 | R +76.2 |
| Parmer County | 314 | 1,863 | 102 | 2,279 | R +68.0 |
| Delta County | 350 | 1,803 | 101 | 2,254 | R +64.4 |
| Mason County | 391 | 1,705 | 98 | 2,194 | R +59.9 |
| Childress County | 233 | 1,771 | 94 | 2,098 | R +73.3 |
| Kimble County | 229 | 1,770 | 94 | 2,093 | R +73.6 |
| Lynn County | 304 | 1,691 | 93 | 2,088 | R +66.4 |
| Swisher County | 398 | 1,584 | 92 | 2,074 | R +57.2 |
| Haskell County | 291 | 1,643 | 90 | 2,024 | R +66.8 |
| Yoakum County | 271 | 1,659 | 91 | 2,021 | R +68.7 |
| La Salle County | 949 | 966 | 90 | 2,005 | R +0.9 |
| Wheeler County | 147 | 1,712 | 87 | 1,946 | R +80.4 |
| Presidio County | 1,381 | 430 | 85 | 1,896 | D +50.1 |
| Castro County | 365 | 1,403 | 83 | 1,851 | R +56.1 |
| Hartley County | 156 | 1,590 | 82 | 1,828 | R +78.4 |
| Floyd County | 296 | 1,369 | 79 | 1,744 | R +61.5 |
| Hansford County | 126 | 1,540 | 78 | 1,744 | R +81.1 |
| Winkler County | 270 | 1,388 | 78 | 1,736 | R +64.4 |
| Martin County | 213 | 1,439 | 78 | 1,730 | R +70.9 |
| Bailey County | 314 | 1,286 | 74 | 1,674 | R +58.1 |
| Crosby County | 398 | 1,123 | 71 | 1,592 | R +45.5 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,003 | 497 | 70 | 1,570 | D +32.3 |
| Real County | 224 | 1,271 | 70 | 1,565 | R +67.0 |
| Fisher County | 277 | 1,210 | 69 | 1,556 | R +60.0 |
| Coke County | 150 | 1,335 | 69 | 1,554 | R +76.2 |
| Baylor County | 153 | 1,269 | 66 | 1,488 | R +75.0 |
| Garza County | 217 | 1,199 | 66 | 1,482 | R +66.3 |
| Shackelford County | 121 | 1,258 | 65 | 1,444 | R +78.8 |
| Hemphill County | 171 | 1,202 | 63 | 1,436 | R +71.8 |
| Donley County | 140 | 1,217 | 63 | 1,420 | R +75.8 |
| Dallam County | 147 | 1,170 | 62 | 1,379 | R +74.2 |
| Kinney County | 333 | 904 | 59 | 1,296 | R +44.1 |
| Crockett County | 305 | 889 | 56 | 1,250 | R +46.7 |
| Crane County | 176 | 1,006 | 55 | 1,237 | R +67.0 |
| Sutton County | 215 | 960 | 55 | 1,230 | R +60.6 |
| Hardeman County | 166 | 994 | 54 | 1,214 | R +68.2 |
| Knox County | 186 | 939 | 53 | 1,178 | R +63.9 |
| Upton County | 136 | 953 | 51 | 1,140 | R +71.7 |
| Concho County | 159 | 913 | 50 | 1,122 | R +67.2 |
| Lipscomb County | 97 | 934 | 49 | 1,080 | R +77.5 |
| Jeff Davis County | 431 | 575 | 46 | 1,052 | R +13.7 |
| Collingsworth County | 115 | 867 | 46 | 1,028 | R +73.1 |
| Hall County | 130 | 849 | 46 | 1,025 | R +70.1 |
| Schleicher County | 185 | 780 | 45 | 1,010 | R +58.9 |
| Armstrong County | 71 | 847 | 42 | 960 | R +80.8 |
| Hudspeth County | 299 | 603 | 42 | 944 | R +32.1 |
| Menard County | 142 | 691 | 39 | 872 | R +63.0 |
| Dickens County | 116 | 686 | 37 | 839 | R +68.0 |
| Oldham County | 68 | 715 | 37 | 820 | R +78.9 |
| Reagan County | 125 | 658 | 37 | 820 | R +65.0 |
| Sherman County | 60 | 717 | 37 | 814 | R +80.7 |
| Throckmorton County | 64 | 659 | 33 | 756 | R +78.7 |
| Culberson County | 347 | 357 | 32 | 736 | R +1.3 |
| Cochran County | 122 | 580 | 33 | 735 | R +62.3 |
| Irion County | 84 | 591 | 31 | 706 | R +71.6 |
| Edwards County | 85 | 544 | 29 | 658 | R +69.7 |
| Briscoe County | 50 | 552 | 28 | 630 | R +79.6 |
| Stonewall County | 93 | 478 | 27 | 598 | R +64.5 |
| Motley County | 34 | 512 | 26 | 572 | R +83.5 |
| Cottle County | 80 | 461 | 25 | 566 | R +67.4 |
| Glasscock County | 32 | 493 | 24 | 549 | R +84.0 |
| Sterling County | 32 | 452 | 22 | 506 | R +83.0 |
| Foard County | 90 | 392 | 22 | 504 | R +59.7 |
| Roberts County | 12 | 398 | 19 | 429 | R +90.1 |
| Terrell County | 96 | 273 | 17 | 386 | R +45.8 |
| Kent County | 41 | 318 | 17 | 376 | R +73.7 |
| Borden County | 17 | 290 | 15 | 322 | R +84.7 |
| McMullen County | 24 | 235 | 13 | 272 | R +78.0 |
| King County | 5 | 100 | 5 | 110 | R +86.4 |
| Kenedy County | 23 | 41 | 2 | 66 | R +27.2 |
| Loving County | 3 | 21 | 2 | 26 | R +72.7 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +5.0 and R +8.5. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +1.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +1.0 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +1.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +5.0 and R +8.5.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Anyiam | Smith | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 43.2 | 56.8 | R +13.6 |