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2026 forecast · Ohio 8th

Warren Davidson is slightly favored to win Ohio's 8th District.

Vanessa Enoch vs Warren Davidson. The model has Davidson ahead by 2.6 points, winning 65 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Lean RModel R +2.6Updated October 22, 2026
Vanessa Enoch
Democrat
48.7%
155,073 projected votes
Warren Davidson
Republican
51.3%
163,375 projected votes
65%Davidson
35%Enoch
Davidson slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Davidson wins about 65 of 100
RatingLean R65% chance for Davidson
Model marginR +2.6No polls in the race
80 percent rangeD +6.1 to R +11.42,000 simulations
Projected votes318,448Davidson 51.3%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Ohio districts

15 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Vanessa EnochDemocrat · 35% to win
48.7%
Warren DavidsonRepublican · 65% to win
51.3%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected district vote

318,448 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Warren Davidson R163,37551.3%
Vanessa Enoch D155,07348.7%
Total318,448100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%35% Enoch65% Davidson16 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Ohio governor polling average
38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%MayJunJulAugSepOct49.1Acton44.9Ramaswamy
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
New York Times/SienaOct 1 · 616 LV · Gold16%Acton +4.0
New York Times/SienaSep 30 · 600 LV · Gold16%Acton +4.0
On Point PollingOct 17 · 635 LV · Gold15%Acton +4.8
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanyOct 19 · 1,592 LV · A++14%Acton +2.0
Big Data PollSep 27 · 682 LV · Gold14%Ramaswamy +1.1
Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River StrategiesOct 13 · 959 LV · NR8.6%Acton +5.0
Every other poll together: 16%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Davidson +2.6
Chance of winning
Vanessa Enoch35%
Warren Davidson65%
Simulated vote
Vanessa Enoch48.7%
Warren Davidson51.3%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +16.0
FundamentalsR +2.5
With pollsR +2.6
Early vote turnoutNo change
With early voteR +2.6

Read from 0 ballots cast so far in Ohio, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +19R +19Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +16.0Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesR +2.5With pollsno pollsR +2.6With early voteturnout so farR +2.6
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.