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2026 forecast · Florida Senate

Ashley Moody is favored to win Florida's Senate seat.

Angie Nixon vs Ashley Moody. The model has Moody ahead by 5.2 points, winning 82 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Lean RModel R +5.2Polls R +4.8Updated October 22, 2026
Angie Nixon
Democrat
46.5%
4,154,376 projected votes
Ashley Moody
Republican
51.7%
4,613,943 projected votes
82%Moody
18%Nixon
Moody favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Moody wins about 82 of 100
RatingLean R82% chance for Moody
Model marginR +5.2Polls R +4.8
80 percent rangeD +2.1 to R +12.42,000 simulations
Projected votes8,930,861Moody 51.7%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Florida Senate by county

Alachua CountyBaker CountyBay CountyBradford CountyBrevard CountyBroward CountyCalhoun CountyCharlotte CountyCitrus CountyClay CountyCollier CountyColumbia CountyDeSoto CountyDixie CountyDuval CountyEscambia CountyFlagler CountyFranklin CountyGadsden CountyGilchrist CountyGlades CountyGulf CountyHamilton CountyHardee CountyHendry CountyHernando CountyHighlands CountyHillsboroughHolmes CountyIndian River CountyJackson CountyJefferson CountyLafayette CountyLake CountyLee CountyLeon CountyLevy CountyLiberty CountyMadison CountyManatee CountyMarion CountyMartin CountyMiami-Dade CountyMonroe CountyNassau CountyOkaloosa CountyOkeechobee CountyOrange CountyOsceola CountyPalm Beach CountyPasco CountyPinellas CountyPolk CountyPutnam CountySt. Johns CountySt. Lucie CountySanta Rosa CountySarasota CountySeminole CountySumter CountySuwannee CountyTaylor CountyUnion CountyVolusia CountyWakulla CountyWalton CountyWashington CountyMiami-DadeBrowardPalm BeachHillsboroughOrangeDuvalLeeBrevardPolkVolusiaPascoSarasota
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Broward County: Nixon +212,705Orange County: Nixon +118,835Palm Beach County: Nixon +63,892Leon County: Nixon +40,021Alachua County: Nixon +33,777Hillsborough: Nixon +31,960Duval County: Nixon +30,524Miami-Dade County: Nixon +13,582Pinellas County: Nixon +10,722Osceola County: Nixon +9,065Gadsden County: Nixon +7,703Seminole County: Nixon +7,235Lee County: Moody +77,837Collier County: Moody +53,252Pasco County: Moody +50,285Marion County: Moody +50,090Brevard County: Moody +47,800Polk County: Moody +45,634St. Johns County: Moody +42,113Santa Rosa County: Moody +42,097Lake County: Moody +38,737Volusia County: Moody +38,082Bay County: Moody +35,737Okaloosa County: Moody +35,627Clay County: Moody +35,210Manatee County: Moody +34,139Citrus County: Moody +33,225Sumter County: Moody +32,558Charlotte County: Moody +30,106Sarasota County: Moody +28,926Hernando County: Moody +27,589Nassau County: Moody +22,440Walton County: Moody +21,581Martin County: Moody +20,949Indian River County: Moody +18,615Escambia County: Moody +17,977Highlands County: Moody +16,188Flagler County: Moody +15,584Columbia County: Moody +12,830Putnam County: Moody +12,602Suwannee County: Moody +10,473Levy County: Moody +9,489Baker County: Moody +8,546Jackson County: Moody +7,468Washington County: Moody +6,457Okeechobee County: Moody +6,430Bradford County: Moody +6,091Holmes County: Moody +6,047Wakulla County: Moody +5,905Gilchrist County: Moody +5,893St. Lucie County: Moody +5,802Dixie County: Moody +4,689Taylor County: Moody +4,482DeSoto County: Moody +4,012Hendry County: Moody +3,737Hardee County: Moody +3,697Gulf County: Moody +3,609Union County: Moody +3,480Calhoun County: Moody +3,390Monroe County: Moody +3,035Lafayette County: Moody +2,383Glades County: Moody +2,187Franklin County: Moody +2,180Liberty County: Moody +1,903Madison County: Moody +1,736Hamilton County: Moody +1,523Jefferson County: Moody +651
Nixon +580,021 net votes from 12 countiesStatewide R +5.4, a 483,084 vote marginMoody +1,063,105 net votes from 55 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Angie NixonDemocrat · 18% to win
46.5%
Ashley MoodyRepublican · 82% to win
51.7%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

8,930,861 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Ashley Moody R4,613,94351.7%
Angie Nixon D4,154,37646.5%
Other / write-in O162,5421.8%
Total8,930,861100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +19.0: 1 simulationsD +17.8: 0 simulationsD +16.6: 1 simulationsD +15.5: 0 simulationsD +14.3: 0 simulationsD +13.1: 4 simulationsD +11.9: 6 simulationsD +10.8: 6 simulationsD +9.6: 8 simulationsD +8.4: 13 simulationsD +7.2: 19 simulationsD +6.1: 20 simulationsD +4.9: 31 simulationsD +3.7: 47 simulationsD +2.5: 53 simulationsD +1.4: 88 simulationsD +0.2: 101 simulationsR +1.0: 123 simulationsR +2.2: 143 simulationsR +3.3: 146 simulationsR +4.5: 152 simulationsR +5.7: 153 simulationsR +6.9: 182 simulationsR +8.0: 152 simulationsR +9.2: 148 simulationsR +10.4: 111 simulationsR +11.6: 85 simulationsR +12.7: 57 simulationsR +13.9: 51 simulationsR +15.1: 36 simulationsR +16.3: 30 simulationsR +17.4: 6 simulationsR +18.6: 10 simulationsR +19.8: 3 simulationsR +21.0: 4 simulationsR +22.1: 5 simulationsR +23.3: 3 simulationsR +24.5: 0 simulationsR +25.7: 0 simulationsR +26.8: 2 simulationsD +19.6R +27.4

80 percent of simulations fall between D +2.1 and R +12.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%18% Nixon82% Moody30 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Florida Senate polling average
38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 2043.0Nixon49.0Moody
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHollow dot: a lean firm's poll as published; the filled dot is where the average counts it, after its measured lean is taken offHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
On Point PollingOct 18 · 378 LV · Gold17%Moody +6.8
University of North FloridaOct 19 · 1,471 LV · NR15%Moody +4.0
MDW Communications (D)Oct 10 · 2,351 LV · NR13%Moody +5.2
Quantus InsightsSep 10 · 733 LV · Gold12%Moody +7.0
YouGovOct 5 · 3,813 LV · C9.4%Moody +5.0
Stetson UniversityOct 9 · 830 LV · NR6.8%Moody +11.0
Every other poll together: 26%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageLOWESS Election Day projectionR +4.8
On Point Polling378 LV0dR +6.842.8 to 49.6
ActiVote400 LV0dR +6.246.9 to 53.1
YouGov for N+ Univision825 RV0dR +9.042 to 51
University of North Florida1,471 LV0dR +4.045 to 49
co/efficient (R)1,014 LV0dR +8.040 to 48
MDW Communications (D)2,351 LV5dR +5.242.4 to 47.6
MDW Communications (D)2,351 LV5dR +6.5
Stetson University716 LV6dR +7.9
St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics836 LV8dR +2.045 to 47
YouGov3,813 LV10dR +5.044 to 49
Targoz Market Research847 LV11dR +10.042 to 52
Mason-Dixon for Telemundo625 LV14dR +10.040 to 50
Change Research (D)1,063 LV18dR +1.047 to 48
InsiderAdvantage (R)Lean R600 LV24dR +7.042 to 49
Stetson University830 LV24dR +11.040 to 51
St. Pete Polls913 LV28dEven45 to 45
Quantus Insights733 LV35dR +7.043 to 50
Change Research (D)1,107 LV36dEven47 to 47

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Moody +5.2
Chance of winning
Angie Nixon18%
Ashley Moody82%
Simulated vote
Angie Nixon46.5%
Ashley Moody51.7%
Other / write-in1.8%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +13.2
FundamentalsR +4.6
With pollsR +3.7
Early vote turnoutR +1.5
With early voteR +5.2

Read from 1,677,075 ballots cast so far in Florida, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

60 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Angie Nixon23
  • Ilhan OmarU.S. Representative, MN-05source
  • Maxwell FrostU.S. Representative, FL-10source
  • Anna EskamaniFlorida state representativesource
  • LaVon Bracy DavisFlorida state senatorsource
  • Bernie SandersU.S. Senator from Vermontsource
  • Ayanna PressleyU.S. Representative, MA-07source
  • Rashida TlaibU.S. Representative, MI-12source
  • Debbie Mucarsel-PowellFormer U.S. representative, 2024 Senate nomineesource
Ashley Moody37
  • Rick ScottU.S. Senator from Floridasource
  • Donald Trumpsource
  • Ted CruzU.S. Senator from Texassource
  • Wilton SimpsonFlorida Agriculture Commissionersource
  • Byron DonaldsU.S. Representative, 2026 GOP nominee for Governorsource
  • Mario Díaz-BalartU.S. Representative from Floridasource
  • Brian MastU.S. Representative from Floridasource
  • Jimmy PatronisU.S. Representative from Floridasource
On the air

Laura Ingraham: Called DSA member Angie Nixon's Democratic Senate primary win the best midterm news for the GOP since Platner. source

Charlamagne tha God: Gave Laura Loomer Donkey of the Day on The Breakfast Club over her attacks on Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon. source

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +16R +16Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +13.2Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesR +4.6With pollsaverage R +4.8R +3.7With early voteturnout so farR +5.2

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareNixonMoody
GenderMen47%43.354.9
Women53%49.948.3
Age18 to 2911%47.850.4
30 to 4419%44.154.1
45 to 6431%47.250.9
65+39%47.350.9
RaceWhite62%35.063.1
Black14%80.817.5
Latino20%54.943.5
Asian and other5%65.132.8
Race and genderWhite men28%29.468.7
White women33%39.758.4
Black men7%77.021.4
Black women7%84.413.9
Latino men10%54.543.9
Latino women10%55.343.2
All other races5%65.132.8

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

67 counties
CountyNixonMoodyOtherTotalMargin
Statewide4,143,2714,626,355161,2358,930,861R +5.4
Miami-Dade County410,702397,1209,812817,634D +1.3
Broward County457,315244,6107,091709,016D +29.8
Palm Beach County336,199272,3078,015616,521D +10.2
Hillsborough291,395259,43512,391563,221D +5.5
Orange County305,974187,1399,551502,664D +23.6
Pinellas County226,047215,32511,318452,690D +2.4
Duval County212,775182,2517,651402,677D +7.5
Lee County118,912196,7495,459321,120R +24.4
Brevard County122,039169,8396,565298,443R +16.2
Polk County113,688159,3226,428279,438R +16.4
Volusia County106,468144,5505,384256,402R +15.0
Pasco County99,352149,6376,909255,898R +19.8
Sarasota County100,895129,8214,229234,945R +12.6
Seminole County105,54998,3144,161208,024D +3.5
Manatee County76,467110,6063,817190,890R +18.1
Lake County69,991108,7283,833182,552R +21.3
Collier County62,231115,4831,977179,691R +29.9
Marion County61,273111,3633,703176,339R +28.4
St. Johns County56,69798,8102,528158,035R +26.8
St. Lucie County69,20275,0042,047146,253R +4.1
Leon County88,58648,5652,230139,381D +28.7
Escambia County58,11576,0922,739136,946R +13.2
Osceola County67,63858,5732,707128,918D +6.8
Alachua County75,14941,3721,895118,416D +28.6
Clay County32,77367,9831,951102,707R +34.4
Charlotte County34,90465,0102,143102,057R +29.6
Okaloosa County27,57963,2062,13792,922R +38.5
Sumter County29,28461,8421,38892,514R +35.2
Hernando County30,06757,6562,52790,250R +30.7
Santa Rosa County22,36764,4641,86288,693R +47.5
Indian River County31,85550,4701,33983,664R +22.4
Martin County30,53251,48199683,009R +25.4
Citrus County23,42056,6452,47682,541R +40.4
Bay County21,05156,7881,67079,509R +45.0
Flagler County24,17739,7611,23865,176R +24.0
Nassau County14,38436,82483352,041R +43.2
Highlands County13,45729,6451,06044,162R +36.8
Walton County8,80330,38467839,865R +54.2
Monroe County16,67919,71462937,022R +8.5
Putnam County8,70321,30558130,589R +41.4
Columbia County7,45320,28347928,215R +45.6
Levy County5,14914,63844520,232R +47.0
Gadsden County13,6605,95727919,896D +38.7
Jackson County5,79913,26729119,357R +38.9
Suwannee County3,92214,39533618,653R +56.2
Wakulla County5,24211,14730016,689R +35.5
Okeechobee County3,2939,72326513,281R +48.7
Baker County1,85310,39919912,451R +68.7
Bradford County2,7468,83722411,807R +51.8
DeSoto County3,2357,24721410,696R +37.7
Washington County1,9978,45422510,676R +60.6
Hendry County3,2787,01518910,482R +35.9
Gilchrist County1,3767,2691948,839R +66.6
Taylor County2,0586,5401498,747R +51.5
Madison County3,0674,8031127,982R +22.1
Holmes County8576,9041587,919R +76.3
Jefferson County3,4364,0871157,638R +8.9
Gulf County1,8175,4261257,368R +49.2
Dixie County1,1055,7941777,076R +66.3
Hardee County1,5875,2841407,011R +52.7
Franklin County1,8123,9921135,917R +37.0
Calhoun County1,0114,4011615,573R +60.8
Union County9634,443935,499R +63.4
Hamilton County1,7363,259875,082R +30.3
Glades County1,1493,336784,563R +47.9
Lafayette County4402,823633,326R +71.4
Liberty County5362,439763,051R +62.2

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.