2026 forecast · Nebraska Senate

Dan Osborn is favored to win Nebraska's Senate seat.

Dan Osborn vs Pete Ricketts. The model has Osborn ahead by 3.2 points, winning 71 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Lean IModel I +3.2Polls R +0.4Updated October 22, 2026

Dan Osborn

Independent

50.1%

387,187 projected votes

Pete Ricketts

Republican

46.8%

362,184 projected votes

71%Osborn

29%Ricketts

Osborn favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Osborn wins about 71 of 100

RatingLean I71% chance for Osborn

Model marginI +3.2Polls R +0.4

80 percent rangeI +10.8 to R +4.12,000 simulations

Projected votes773,345Osborn 50.1%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Nebraska Senate by county

I +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Osborn +122,887 net votes from 4 countiesStatewide I +2.8, a 21,437 vote marginRicketts +101,450 net votes from 89 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Projected statewide vote

773,345 votes

Candidate	Votes	Share
Dan Osborn IND	387,187	50.1%
Pete Ricketts R	362,184	46.8%
Other / write-in O	23,974	3.1%
Total	773,345	100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims

80 percent of simulations fall between I +10.8 and R +4.1. Negative margins are Democratic or independent wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Nebraska Senate polling average

Size dots by weight

The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day

What moves the average today

Impact Research (D)Aug 13 · 600 LV · NR20%Even

GBAOSep 8 · 800 LV · F20%Osborn +1.0

National Public Affairs (R)Oct 5 · 800 LV · NR18%Ricketts +3.0

YouGovOct 3 · 1,809 LV · C16%Osborn +1.0

SurveyUSASep 13 · 503 LV · C+14%Osborn +4.0

co/efficient (R)Sep 30 · 1,113 LV · C+11%Ricketts +5.0

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average

Pollster	Sample	Age	Margin
On Point average	LOWESS Election Day projection		R +0.4
National Public Affairs (R)	800 LV	10d	R +0.3
YouGov	1,809 LV	12d	D +0.1
co/efficient (R)	1,113 LV	15d	R +1.3
SurveyUSA	503 LV	32d	D +3.4
GBAO (D)	800 LV	37d	R +1.4
Impact Research (D)	600 LV	63d	R +2.0
Tavern Research (D)	1,165 LV	157d	D +4.0
Impact Research (D)	600 LV	252d	R +3.0
Lake Research Partners	900 LV	302d	R +2.6
Lake Research Partners	900 LV	443d	R +0.6
Change Research	524 LV	562d	R +1.2

Model margin

Osborn +3.2

Chance of winning

Dan Osborn71%

Pete Ricketts29%

Simulated vote

Dan Osborn50.1%

Pete Ricketts46.8%

Other / write-in3.1%

How the model gets there

Partisan leanR +20.8

FundamentalsD +2.2

With pollsD +1.1

Early vote turnoutD +2.1

With early voteD +3.2

Read from 107,222 ballots cast so far in Nebraska, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

31 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Dan Osborn21

Jane KleebNebraska Democratic Party chairsource
Mike MarvinFormer Legal Marijuana NOW candidatesource
Robert ReichFormer U.S. Labor Secretarysource
Cindy BurbankWithdrawn Democratic nomineesource
Nebraska State Education AssociationLargest state teachers unionsource
End Citizens UnitedCampaign finance reform PACsource
Nebraska Democratic PartyState partysource
Nebraska AFL-CIOState labor federationsource

Pete Ricketts10

Ted CruzU.S. Senator, TXsource
John KennedyU.S. Senator, LAsource
Donald Trumpsource
Nebraska Farm BureauFarm groupsource
Republican Jewish CoalitionJewish Republican organizationsource
Nebraska Fraternal Order of PolicePolice unionsource
National Border Patrol CouncilBorder Patrol agents unionsource
National Federation of Independent BusinessSmall business groupsource

On the air

Karl Rove: Predicted Pete Ricketts will win and called Dan Osborn a phony. source

Brian Tyler Cohen: Interviewed independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn. source

Jessica Tarlov: Hosted a live Prof G conversation with independent Dan Osborn about his race against Pete Ricketts. source

Mary Harris: Interviewed Dan Osborn on What Next about why he is running as an independent. source

Zach Weissmueller: Interviewed Dan Osborn on The Reason Interview about whether he can win over libertarians. source

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs

Group	Share	Osborn	Ricketts
GenderMen	47%	44.6	52.3
Women	53%	52.9	44.0
Age18 to 29	14%	55.4	41.2
30 to 44	22%	49.7	47.1
45 to 64	32%	46.8	50.1
65+	32%	47.8	49.2
RaceWhite	86%	44.8	52.1
Black	4%	89.1	7.4
Latino	6%	63.4	33.5
Asian and other	4%	75.4	20.8
Race and genderWhite men	40%	39.5	57.5
White women	46%	49.5	47.4
Black men	2%	87.5	9.0
Black women	2%	90.5	6.0
Latino men	3%	61.9	34.9
Latino women	3%	64.9	32.1
All other races	4%	75.4	20.8

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

93 counties

County	Osborn	Ricketts	Other	Total	Margin
Statewide	385,381	363,944	24,020	773,345	I +2.8
Douglas County	145,885	69,291	8,500	223,676	I +34.2
Lancaster County	80,058	45,904	5,112	131,074	I +26.1
Sarpy County	43,289	31,373	2,389	77,051	I +15.5
Buffalo County	6,969	11,307	624	18,900	R +23.0
Hall County	7,927	10,073	461	18,461	R +11.6
Lincoln County	4,699	8,718	330	13,747	R +29.4
Dodge County	6,003	7,037	321	13,361	R +7.9
Madison County	4,446	8,487	277	13,210	R +30.6
Platte County	3,777	8,847	218	12,842	R +39.6
Cass County	5,529	6,802	303	12,634	R +10.2
Scotts Bluff County	4,815	7,090	267	12,172	R +18.6
Adams County	4,599	6,973	321	11,893	R +20.0
Saunders County	4,065	6,351	256	10,672	R +21.4
Washington County	3,898	5,761	247	9,906	R +18.8
Gage County	3,739	5,111	218	9,068	R +15.1
Seward County	2,525	4,857	174	7,556	R +30.8
Dawson County	2,446	4,313	159	6,918	R +27.0
Otoe County	2,682	3,764	139	6,585	R +16.5
York County	1,572	4,020	149	5,741	R +42.8
Dakota County	2,379	2,432	83	4,894	R +1.0
Custer County	1,135	3,458	247	4,840	R +47.9
Saline County	2,148	2,273	104	4,525	R +2.7
Red Willow County	874	3,549	100	4,523	R +59.1
Hamilton County	1,061	3,330	117	4,508	R +50.3
Holt County	1,085	3,222	115	4,422	R +48.2
Phelps County	997	3,023	107	4,127	R +48.7
Cedar County	1,086	2,930	73	4,089	R +44.8
Box Butte County	1,361	2,495	91	3,947	R +28.6
Knox County	1,096	2,721	90	3,907	R +41.3
Butler County	1,102	2,669	69	3,840	R +40.6
Cheyenne County	1,111	2,621	88	3,820	R +39.5
Merrick County	954	2,621	80	3,655	R +45.6
Cuming County	909	2,679	58	3,646	R +48.6
Wayne County	1,286	2,156	88	3,530	R +24.6
Keith County	1,013	2,361	83	3,457	R +38.6
Dawes County	1,322	2,013	79	3,414	R +20.3
Richardson County	1,295	1,950	59	3,304	R +19.8
Pierce County	749	2,469	59	3,277	R +52.1
Burt County	1,222	1,775	58	3,055	R +17.9
Jefferson County	1,119	1,821	51	2,991	R +23.3
Kearney County	752	2,074	78	2,904	R +45.5
Clay County	776	2,022	75	2,873	R +43.0
Howard County	858	1,936	60	2,854	R +37.5
Colfax County	1,079	1,712	48	2,839	R +21.7
Antelope County	615	2,141	50	2,806	R +54.4
Nemaha County	1,088	1,622	69	2,779	R +19.0
Boone County	643	1,972	61	2,676	R +49.4
Stanton County	763	1,821	66	2,650	R +39.5
Cherry County	521	2,011	84	2,616	R +56.5
Fillmore County	860	1,672	50	2,582	R +31.2
Dixon County	821	1,547	51	2,419	R +29.9
Thayer County	650	1,682	40	2,372	R +43.4
Polk County	658	1,642	40	2,340	R +41.9
Morrill County	571	1,466	53	2,090	R +42.6
Furnas County	498	1,515	49	2,062	R +48.8
Sheridan County	499	1,472	52	2,023	R +47.4
Valley County	558	1,340	37	1,935	R +40.0
Johnson County	795	1,017	37	1,849	R +12.0
Nuckolls County	471	1,321	35	1,827	R +46.2
Thurston County	953	730	31	1,714	I +13.2
Chase County	339	1,280	27	1,646	R +56.7
Harlan County	367	1,114	34	1,515	R +48.7
Kimball County	390	1,042	37	1,469	R +43.5
Webster County	384	1,047	26	1,457	R +45.0
Nance County	483	934	26	1,443	R +30.7
Sherman County	457	877	41	1,375	R +29.8
Brown County	285	1,034	30	1,349	R +55.2
Franklin County	336	966	27	1,329	R +46.8
Perkins County	296	900	20	1,216	R +49.1
Frontier County	271	896	24	1,191	R +51.3
Hitchcock County	281	870	26	1,177	R +49.3
Pawnee County	393	755	19	1,167	R +30.5
Greeley County	295	756	18	1,069	R +41.9
Garden County	210	711	19	940	R +52.2
Boyd County	146	765	17	928	R +65.8
Gosper County	240	661	27	928	R +44.5
Garfield County	181	647	18	846	R +54.3
Deuel County	212	605	19	836	R +45.6
Dundy County	168	626	15	809	R +55.4
Rock County	125	541	13	679	R +61.0
Sioux County	117	432	10	559	R +55.4
Hayes County	54	367	7	428	R +72.2
Keya Paha County	69	335	9	413	R +62.6
Wheeler County	88	274	9	371	R +49.5
Logan County	69	289	8	366	R +60.0
Hooker County	85	266	11	362	R +47.8
Banner County	71	281	6	358	R +57.6
Thomas County	72	245	9	326	R +51.6
Loup County	74	234	10	318	R +49.6
Grant County	37	262	9	308	R +72.6
Arthur County	46	200	4	250	R +60.5
McPherson County	36	201	6	243	R +67.0
Blaine County	48	169	9	226	R +51.7

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology

Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.