2026 state legislative forecast
Indiana House forecast
Republicans win control of the Indiana House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 100 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 4 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
31 to 39Median 35 ยท 51 for a majority
Favored to flip
4to D0to R
After 2024: 30 D, 70 R
Environment
D +9.9Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Indiana House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 35 D to 65 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hunter Smith 2024 | Racheal Bleicher vs Hunter Smith | R +7.8 | R +0.1 | 51% | 12,093 | 12,129 | 24,591 | Toss up |
| 62 | Dave Hall 2024 | Amy Huffman Oliver vs Dave Hall | R +10.7 | R +0.5 | 46% | 5,029 | 5,076 | 10,259 | Toss up |
| 5 | Dale Devon 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +9.7 | D +0.5 | 55% | 17,705 | 17,525 | 35,767 | Toss up |
| 37 | Todd Huston 2024 | Lauren Cole vs Todd Huston | R +11.9 | R +2.0 | 41% | 9,872 | 10,273 | 20,452 | Toss up |
| 43 | Tonya Pfaff 2024 | Tonya Pfaff vs Amy Lore | R +7.5 | D +2.5 | 68% | 6,818 | 6,486 | 13,506 | Lean D |
| 88 | Chris Jeter 2024 | Stephanie Jo Yocum vs Chris Jeter | R +10.2 | R +3.0 | 34% | 11,212 | 11,905 | 23,469 | Lean R |
| 72 | Edward D "Ed" Clere 2024 | Michele Henry vs Darrell Neeley | R +12.5 | R +3.6 | 31% | 9,414 | 10,119 | 19,830 | Lean R |
| 36 | Kyle Pierce 2024 | Kim Townsend vs Kyle Pierce | R +13.4 | R +5.9 | 18% | 7,011 | 7,891 | 15,129 | Lean R |
| 39 | Daniel "Danny" Lopez 2024 | Lindsay Gramlich vs Danny Lopez | R +0.4 | D +6.0 | 83% | 12,025 | 10,656 | 23,026 | Likely D |
| 7 | Jake Teshka 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +16.6 | R +6.7 | 15% | 15,709 | 17,979 | 34,201 | Likely R |
| 84 | Bob Morris 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +17.2 | R +7.4 | 13% | 8,430 | 9,779 | 18,486 | Likely R |
| 78 | Tim O'Brien 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +17.5 | R +7.7 | 13% | 8,490 | 9,905 | 18,676 | Likely R |
| 25 | Becky Cash 2024 | Tiffany Stoner vs Becky Cash | R +3.0 | D +7.9 | 88% | 11,787 | 10,053 | 22,173 | Likely D |
| 40 | Gregory E Steuerwald 2024 | William Colteryahn vs Greg Steuerwald | R +19.3 | R +8.2 | 12% | 29,639 | 34,941 | 65,564 | Likely R |
| 10 | Charles "Chuck" Moseley 2024 | Chuck Moseley vs Ted Uzelac | R +5.4 | D +9.4 | 92% | 9,213 | 7,634 | 17,103 | Likely D |
| 19 | Julie Olthoff 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +20.1 | R +10.3 | 6% | 9,226 | 11,349 | 20,888 | Likely R |
| 91 | Robert W Behning 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +20.8 | R +10.8 | 5% | 5,851 | 7,268 | 13,318 | Likely R |
| 71 | Wendy Dant Chesser 2024 | Wendy Dant Chesser vs James McClure Jr. | R +0.3 | D +11.3 | 96% | 9,408 | 7,493 | 17,159 | Likely D |
| 4 | Ed Soliday 2024 | Ryan Kominakis vs Ed Soliday | R +19.2 | R +11.5 | 4% | 11,308 | 14,238 | 25,935 | Likely R |
| 93 | Julie A Mcguire 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +18.1 | R +11.5 | 5% | 5,522 | 6,962 | 12,674 | Likely R |
| 9 | Patricia A "Pat" Boy 2024 | Randy Novak vs Chris Cleveland | D +1.7 | D +11.8 | 96% | 9,733 | 7,680 | 17,678 | Likely D |
Projected Indiana House vote
100 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 780,381 | 43.9% |
| Republicans | 966,591 | 54.4% |
| Independents and others | 30,354 | 1.7% |
| Total | 1,777,327 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.