2026 state legislative forecast

Maryland Senate forecast

Democrats win control of the Maryland Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 47 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 47On the ballot 47Maryland House of Delegates All chambers

Chance of control

>99%D<1%R

Democratic seats, 80% range

35 to 39

Median 36 · 24 for a majority

Favored to flip

2to D0to R

After 2024: 34 D, 13 R

Environment

D +12.2

Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Maryland Senate map

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 37 D to 10 R

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations

Every Senate district

District	Last winner	2026 nominees	2024 lean	Forecast	Dem win	Projected D votes	Projected R votes	Total	Rating
4	William "Bill" Folden 2022	Lara Westdorp vs William Folden	R +8.5	R +1.9	38%	33,463	34,759	69,260	Toss up
31	Bryan W Simonaire 2022	Brent Mulrooney vs Nicholaus Kipke	R +9.9	D +2.4	63%	30,884	29,466	61,269	Lean D
7	J B Jennings 2022	Bill Geibler vs J. B. Jennings	R +15.7	R +3.5	28%	29,713	31,887	62,538	Lean R
42	Chris West 2022	Stephanie Popescu vs Kevin Ford	R +8.0	D +4.2	75%	33,357	30,662	64,994	Lean D
37	Johnny Mautz 2022	Katie G. Clendaniel vs Johnny Mautz	R +10.0	R +6.0	18%	26,929	30,360	58,161	Lean R
29	Jack Bailey 2022	Chuck Borges vs Jack Bailey	R +18.4	R +6.4	17%	25,170	28,595	54,584	Likely R
5	Justin Ready 2022	Gary Foote vs Justin Ready	R +18.8	R +6.8	15%	30,086	34,441	65,510	Likely R
36	Stephen S Hershey Jr 2022	Nivek Johnson vs Steve Hershey	R +19.2	R +7.1	14%	28,175	32,508	61,608	Likely R
6	Johnny Ray Salling 2022	Justin Holliday vs Johnny Ray Salling	R +17.5	R +10.2	6%	16,008	19,660	36,211	Likely R

Projected Maryland Senate vote

47 seats on the ballot

Party	Votes	Share
Democrats	1,775,840	73.9%
Republicans	606,517	25.2%
Independents and others	22,161	0.9%
Total	2,404,519	100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built

Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.