Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is very likely to win Alaska's governorship.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs Bernadette Wilson, an open seat. The model has Kreiss-Tomkins ahead by 6.7 points, winning 91 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
290,855 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins D | 141,402 | 48.6% |
| Bernadette Wilson R | 76,018 | 26.1% |
| Dave Bronson R | 38,790 | 13.3% |
| Treg Taylor R | 34,650 | 11.9% |
| Total | 290,855 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +12.8 and D +0.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | D +8.5 | |
| Data for Progress (D) | 694 LV | 0d | R +3.046 to 49 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,512 LV | 12d | R +4.048 to 52 |
| New York Times/Siena | 504 LV | 14d | R +6.040 to 46 |
| Cygnal (R) | 502 LV | 18d | D +3.044 to 41 |
| co/efficient (R) | 799 LV | 28d | Even43 to 43 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 800 LV | 34d | R +1.040 to 41 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 13,443 ballots cast so far in Alaska, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
24 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Forrest DunbarAlaska state senatorsource
- Mike NavarreFormer Kenai Peninsula Borough mayorsource
- Tony KnowlesFormer Governor of Alaskasource
- Matt ClamanAlaska state senator, withdrawn candidatesource
- Tom BegichFormer Alaska Senate Minority Leader, withdrawn D candidatesource
- Lesil McGuireFormer Alaska state senator, former GOP gubernatorial candidatesource
- Jennie ArmstrongFormer Alaska state representative, 13th districtsource
- Robyn FrierAlaska state representative, 40th districtsource
- Byron DonaldsU.S. Rep., FL-19source
- Craig CampbellFormer Lieutenant Governor of Alaskasource
- Morton BlackwellRNC committeeman, Leadership Institute foundersource
- Nick Begich IIIU.S. Rep., Alaska at largesource
- Shelley HughesFormer Alaska Senate Majority Leader, former candidatesource
- Alaska Republican Party District 6Party districtsource
- Turning Point ActionConservative youth political groupsource
- Alaska Republican Party District 6Party districtsource
Remy Numa: Fox News Power Rankings moved Alaska governor from Lean R to Toss-Up. source
Kyle Kondik: Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the open Alaska governor race from Likely Republican to Toss-up. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Kreiss-Tomkins | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 49.2 | 20.2 |
| Women | 51% | 55.5 | 17.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 56.4 | 16.2 |
| 30 to 44 | 25% | 53.3 | 18.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 35% | 49.7 | 20.2 |
| 65+ | 27% | 53.0 | 18.9 |
| RaceWhite | 69% | 45.8 | 22.1 |
| Black | 3% | 81.1 | 3.0 |
| Latino | 6% | 60.3 | 14.7 |
| Asian and other | 22% | 66.8 | 11.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 33% | 40.2 | 24.8 |
| White women | 36% | 50.9 | 19.7 |
| Black men | 2% | 78.8 | 3.5 |
| Black women | 2% | 83.2 | 2.6 |
| Latino men | 3% | 57.4 | 16.4 |
| Latino women | 3% | 63.6 | 12.9 |
| All other races | 22% | 66.8 | 11.8 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by borough
30 boroughs| Borough | Kreiss-Tomkins | Wilson | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 142,157 | 75,892 | 72,806 | 290,855 | D +22.8 |
| Anchorage Municipality | 66,200 | 26,206 | 25,111 | 117,517 | D +21.4 |
| Matanuska-Susitna Borough | 11,636 | 17,122 | 16,423 | 45,181 | R +38.1 |
| Fairbanks North Star Borough | 17,655 | 9,708 | 9,383 | 36,746 | D +5.7 |
| Kenai Peninsula Borough | 9,516 | 9,138 | 8,810 | 27,464 | R +20.4 |
| Juneau City and Borough | 9,779 | 2,061 | 1,980 | 13,820 | D +48.0 |
| Ketchikan Gateway Borough | 2,463 | 1,607 | 1,536 | 5,606 | R +2.2 |
| Kodiak Island Borough | 2,339 | 1,319 | 1,255 | 4,913 | D +4.8 |
| Bethel Census Area | 3,132 | 762 | 720 | 4,614 | D +42.7 |
| Sitka City and Borough | 2,278 | 632 | 605 | 3,515 | D +37.2 |
| Southeast Fairbanks Census Area | 540 | 1,308 | 1,255 | 3,103 | R +55.2 |
| Chugach Census Area | 1,686 | 585 | 560 | 2,831 | D +27.3 |
| Nome Census Area | 1,834 | 512 | 482 | 2,828 | D +37.3 |
| Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area | 1,558 | 596 | 568 | 2,722 | D +23.2 |
| Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area | 1,487 | 602 | 573 | 2,662 | D +20.5 |
| North Slope Borough | 1,083 | 402 | 383 | 1,868 | D +24.4 |
| Kusilvak Census Area | 1,169 | 330 | 314 | 1,813 | D +36.5 |
| Northwest Arctic Borough | 976 | 352 | 334 | 1,662 | D +25.8 |
| Dillingham Census Area | 999 | 275 | 259 | 1,533 | D +37.7 |
| Hoonah-Angoon Census Area | 1,135 | 168 | 162 | 1,465 | D +60.0 |
| Petersburg Borough | 665 | 370 | 353 | 1,388 | D +5.4 |
| Haines Borough | 861 | 211 | 201 | 1,273 | D +42.3 |
| Copper River Census Area | 373 | 416 | 393 | 1,182 | R +26.7 |
| Aleutians West Census Area | 576 | 224 | 214 | 1,014 | D +22.5 |
| Wrangell City and Borough | 373 | 325 | 309 | 1,007 | R +16.1 |
| Denali Borough | 480 | 252 | 239 | 971 | D +8.1 |
| Skagway Municipality | 548 | 68 | 65 | 681 | D +66.0 |
| Aleutians East Borough | 224 | 124 | 116 | 464 | D +5.3 |
| Lake and Peninsula Borough | 232 | 77 | 74 | 383 | D +30.2 |
| Bristol Bay Borough | 159 | 99 | 91 | 349 | D +1.1 |
| Yakutat City and Borough | 201 | 41 | 38 | 280 | D +50.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.