SearchThe Weighting Room
12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 forecast · South Carolina Senate

Annie Andrews and Darline Graham are in a toss up for South Carolina's Senate seat.

Annie Andrews vs Darline Graham. The model has Andrews ahead by 1.3 points, winning 56 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Toss upModel D +1.3Polls D +2.3Updated October 22, 2026
Annie Andrews
Democrat
48.7%
987,739 projected votes
Darline Graham
Republican
47.4%
961,050 projected votes
56%Andrews
44%Graham
Andrews slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Andrews wins about 56 of 100
RatingToss up56% chance for Andrews
Model marginD +1.3Polls D +2.3
80 percent rangeD +9.5 to R +6.72,000 simulations
Projected votes2,027,665Andrews 48.7%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

South Carolina Senate by county

Abbeville CountyAiken CountyAllendale CountyAnderson CountyBamberg CountyBarnwell CountyBeaufort CountyBerkeley CountyCalhoun CountyCharleston CountyCherokee CountyChester CountyChesterfield CountyClarendon CountyColleton CountyDarlington CountyDillon CountyDorchester CountyEdgefield CountyFairfield CountyFlorence CountyGeorgetown CountyGreenville CountyGreenwood CountyHampton CountyHorry CountyJasper CountyKershaw CountyLancaster CountyLaurens CountyLee CountyLexington CountyMcCormick CountyMarion CountyMarlboro CountyNewberry CountyOconee CountyOrangeburg CountyPickens CountyRichland CountySaluda CountySpartanburg CountySumter CountyUnion CountyWilliamsburg CountyYork CountyGreenvilleCharlestonHorryRichlandSpartanburgLexingtonYorkBerkeleyBeaufortAndersonAikenDorchester
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Richland County: Andrews +76,725Charleston County: Andrews +53,767Orangeburg County: Andrews +14,048Sumter County: Andrews +9,185Williamsburg County: Andrews +5,002Marion County: Andrews +3,561York County: Andrews +3,558Florence County: Andrews +3,478Fairfield County: Andrews +3,403Lee County: Andrews +2,808Hampton County: Andrews +2,347Marlboro County: Andrews +2,278Dorchester County: Andrews +2,148Jasper County: Andrews +1,900Bamberg County: Andrews +1,811Darlington County: Andrews +1,602Clarendon County: Andrews +1,596Allendale County: Andrews +1,479Beaufort County: Andrews +1,369Dillon County: Andrews +1,047Colleton County: Andrews +847Calhoun County: Andrews +631McCormick County: Andrews +254Barnwell County: Andrews +228Horry County: Graham +32,371Anderson County: Graham +23,272Lexington County: Graham +16,749Pickens County: Graham +14,631Spartanburg County: Graham +13,853Oconee County: Graham +11,352Aiken County: Graham +10,844Cherokee County: Graham +7,083Greenville County: Graham +6,085Lancaster County: Graham +5,864Laurens County: Graham +5,690Kershaw County: Graham +3,965Greenwood County: Graham +3,387Edgefield County: Graham +2,307Abbeville County: Graham +2,276Newberry County: Graham +2,256Saluda County: Graham +1,718Chesterfield County: Graham +1,714Union County: Graham +1,159Georgetown County: Graham +645Berkeley County: Graham +431Chester County: Graham +190
Andrews +195,072 net votes from 24 countiesStatewide D +1.3, a 27,230 vote marginGraham +167,842 net votes from 22 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Annie AndrewsDemocrat · 56% to win
48.7%
Darline GrahamRepublican · 44% to win
47.4%
Kasie WhitenerL
3.9%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

2,027,665 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Annie Andrews D987,73948.7%
Darline Graham R961,05047.4%
Kasie Whitener L78,8763.9%
Total2,027,665100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +44.0: 1 simulationsD +42.4: 1 simulationsD +40.8: 0 simulationsD +39.2: 0 simulationsD +37.7: 0 simulationsD +36.1: 0 simulationsD +34.5: 0 simulationsD +32.9: 1 simulationsD +31.4: 0 simulationsD +29.8: 0 simulationsD +28.2: 0 simulationsD +26.6: 1 simulationsD +25.1: 0 simulationsD +23.5: 3 simulationsD +21.9: 2 simulationsD +20.3: 3 simulationsD +18.8: 8 simulationsD +17.2: 9 simulationsD +15.6: 11 simulationsD +14.0: 24 simulationsD +12.5: 41 simulationsD +10.9: 63 simulationsD +9.3: 83 simulationsD +7.7: 100 simulationsD +6.2: 142 simulationsD +4.6: 168 simulationsD +3.0: 196 simulationsD +1.4: 198 simulationsR +0.1: 198 simulationsR +1.7: 185 simulationsR +3.3: 170 simulationsR +4.9: 132 simulationsR +6.4: 102 simulationsR +8.0: 76 simulationsR +9.6: 39 simulationsR +11.2: 19 simulationsR +12.7: 12 simulationsR +14.3: 5 simulationsR +15.9: 5 simulationsR +17.5: 2 simulationsD +44.7R +18.3

80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.5 and R +6.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%56% Andrews44% Graham29 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The South Carolina Senate polling average
R+2R+1EvenD+1D+2D+3D+4D+5Aug 24Aug 31Sep 7Sep 14Sep 21Sep 28Oct 5Oct 12Oct 19Andrews +3.1
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
InsiderAdvantage (R)Sep 9 · 1,200 LV · A+ · R lean, 4.5 off17%Andrews +2.5
Trafalgar Group (R)Sep 25 · 1,087 LV · A- · R lean, 3.8 off17%Andrews +2.7
On Point PollingOct 19 · 294 LV · Gold17%Andrews +3.5
InsiderAdvantage (R)Sep 29 · 1,200 LV · A+ · R lean, 4.5 off16%Andrews +3.5
Impact Research (D)Aug 24 · 700 LV · NR13%Even
Trafalgar Group (R)Oct 18 · 1,095 LV · A- · R lean, 3.8 off11%Andrews +0.8
Every other poll together: 10%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageD +2.3
Trafalgar Group (R)1,095 LV0dR +1.7
On Point Polling294 LV0dD +3.5
Rasmussen Reports837 LV7dR +4.5
InsiderAdvantage (R)1,200 LV16dD +1.0
Trafalgar Group (R)1,087 LV20dR +0.0
Rasmussen Reports1,006 LV31dR +5.5
InsiderAdvantage (R)1,200 LV36dR +0.1
Impact Research (D)700 LV52dR +1.7
Impact Research (D)900 LV54dD +1.3
Model margin
Andrews +1.3
Chance of winning
Annie Andrews56%
Darline Graham44%
Simulated vote
Annie Andrews48.7%
Darline Graham47.4%
Kasie Whitener3.9%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +18.1
FundamentalsR +1.9
With pollsD +1.3
Early vote turnoutNo change
With early voteD +1.3

South Carolina has no early vote reported yet, so its turnout correction comes from similar states that do and from its primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

42 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Annie Andrews23
  • Pete ButtigiegFormer Transportation Secretarysource
  • Jaime HarrisonFormer DNC chair, 2020 SC Senate nomineesource
  • JA MooreSC state representativesource
  • Michael RiversSC state representativesource
  • EMILY's ListPro-choice Democratic women PACsource
  • George WillConservative columnistsource
  • 314 ActionScience advocacy PACsource
  • American Federation of Government EmployeesFederal employees unionsource
Lindsey Graham4
  • Donald Trumpsource
  • Ben CarsonFormer secretary of Housing and Urban Developmentsource
  • Tim ScottU.S. senator from South Carolinasource
  • Henry McMasterGovernor of South Carolinasource
Darline Graham15
  • Donald TrumpPresidentsource
  • Henry McMasterGovernor of South Carolinasource
  • Tim ScottU.S. Senator, SCsource
  • John ThuneSenate Majority Leadersource
  • John BarrassoSenate Majority Whipsource
  • Tom CottonU.S. Senator, ARsource
  • Shelley Moore CapitoU.S. Senator, WVsource
  • Russell FryU.S. Rep., SC-07source
On the air

Karl Rove: Called South Carolina a hope for Democrats but not real. source

Remy Numa: Fox News Power Rankings moved South Carolina Senate from Solid R to Likely R. source

Laura Ingraham: Attacked Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews ahead of the Republican Senate runoff, saying under the white coat is a left wing agenda. source

Larry Sabato: Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the South Carolina Senate race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. source

Brian Tyler Cohen: Interviewed Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews. source

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +22R +22Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +18.1Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesR +1.9With pollsaverage D +2.3D +1.3With early voteturnout so farD +1.3

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareAndrewsGraham
GenderMen48%43.452.7
Women52%50.945.2
Age18 to 2912%48.847.2
30 to 4420%45.950.2
45 to 6433%46.649.5
65+35%48.447.8
RaceWhite69%34.661.4
Black24%80.516.0
Latino3%54.341.7
Asian and other4%63.731.5
Race and genderWhite men32%29.466.6
White women37%39.256.8
Black men12%76.719.8
Black women12%84.212.3
Latino men2%54.541.4
Latino women2%54.142.0
All other races4%63.731.5

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

46 counties
CountyAndrewsGrahamOtherTotalMargin
Statewide988,019960,78978,8572,027,665D +1.3
Greenville County95,900101,98511,961209,846R +3.4
Charleston County113,36559,5986,273179,236D +29.4
Horry County60,98293,3535,432159,767R +20.8
Richland County114,47137,7463,743155,960D +48.9
Spartanburg County48,67362,5266,973118,172R +12.2
Lexington County47,62064,3695,155117,144R +14.6
York County56,70353,1454,696114,544D +2.8
Berkeley County41,64642,0773,94687,669R +0.7
Beaufort County42,50441,1352,05785,696D +1.1
Anderson County24,73748,0093,74876,494R +30.7
Aiken County26,84537,6892,48067,014R +16.5
Dorchester County29,90227,7542,78060,436D +3.1
Florence County25,52822,0501,37148,949D +6.7
Pickens County15,58530,2162,71748,518R +30.3
Lancaster County17,25223,1161,24941,617R +14.5
Sumter County22,46313,27891636,657D +24.6
Oconee County10,40121,7531,44433,598R +34.1
Georgetown County14,67215,31780130,790R +2.4
Orangeburg County22,0728,02458330,679D +45.6
Kershaw County10,69114,65691926,266R +15.2
Greenwood County10,50113,88883225,221R +13.6
Laurens County8,32414,0141,32623,664R +24.2
Darlington County12,31810,71661523,649D +6.5
Cherokee County5,62812,7111,02619,365R +36.7
Newberry County5,9388,19449814,630R +15.7
Chesterfield County6,2527,96641014,628R +11.8
Colleton County7,4136,56652214,501D +5.7
Jasper County7,5905,69032713,607D +13.7
Clarendon County7,1995,60327513,077D +11.9
Chester County5,5015,69141811,610R +1.7
Williamsburg County8,1563,15421911,529D +42.9
Edgefield County4,0126,31937510,706R +21.7
Marion County6,8113,25019510,256D +34.4
Union County4,0805,2395219,840R +11.9
Abbeville County3,5445,8203809,744R +23.5
Dillon County5,0443,9972239,264D +11.0
Fairfield County6,1632,7602299,152D +36.7
Marlboro County5,0662,7882018,055D +28.0
Barnwell County3,7783,5501497,477D +2.8
Saluda County2,7004,4182287,346R +23.3
Hampton County4,3902,0431246,557D +35.6
Calhoun County3,4072,7761596,342D +9.7
Lee County4,4591,6511256,235D +44.7
McCormick County2,6092,355965,060D +4.5
Bamberg County3,2111,400944,705D +38.3
Allendale County1,913434462,393D +61.5

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.