New York Senate forecast
Democrats win control of the New York Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 63 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 3 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
New York Senate map
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 51 D to 12 REvery Senate district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Steve Chan 2024 | Larry He vs Steve Chan | R +16.4 | D +0.1 | 51% | 23,789 | 23,717 | 48,229 | Toss up |
| 62 | Robert G Ortt 2024 | Thomas E. Arida vs Robert G. Ortt | R +15.2 | R +2.0 | 38% | 51,434 | 53,576 | 106,610 | Lean R |
| 51 | Peter Oberacker 2024 | Michele Frazier vs Christopher W. Tague | R +2.6 | D +2.2 | 63% | 58,332 | 55,820 | 115,890 | Lean D |
| 2 | Not on file 2022 | Harjot Singh vs Mario R. Mattera | R +7.2 | D +4.3 | 75% | 63,284 | 58,055 | 123,187 | Lean D |
| 38 | Bill Weber 2024 | Joseph W. Rand vs Bill Weber | R +8.9 | D +5.1 | 78% | 58,918 | 53,158 | 113,783 | Lean D |
| 5 | Steven D Rhoads 2024 | Andrew Piddoubny vs Steven D. Rhoads | R +14.5 | R +5.5 | 21% | 68,192 | 76,146 | 146,536 | Lean R |
| 7 | Jack M Martins 2024 | Rory Lancman vs Jake Blumencranz | R +2.5 | D +6.9 | 85% | 71,283 | 62,118 | 135,432 | Likely D |
| 9 | Patricia M Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick 2024 | Lisa Malkie Vider vs Patricia M. Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick | R +2.6 | D +7.6 | 87% | 69,863 | 59,970 | 131,810 | Likely D |
| 58 | Thomas Fellers O'Mara 2024 | James J. Bobreski vs Thomas Fellers O'Mara | R +21.6 | R +8.6 | 10% | 58,153 | 69,152 | 129,244 | Likely R |
| 3 | Not on file 2022 | Antonio Vargas-Ayala vs Dean Murray | R +18.1 | R +8.9 | 9% | 42,731 | 51,080 | 95,239 | Likely R |
| 1 | Not on file 2022 | E. Christopher Murray vs Anthony H. Palumbo | D +1.4 | D +10.4 | 94% | 62,167 | 50,413 | 114,294 | Likely D |
| 44 | James N Tedisco 2024 | Sarah F. Rogerson vs James N. Tedisco | D +10.6 | D +10.6 | 95% | 71,671 | 57,886 | 131,530 | Likely D |
Projected New York Senate vote
63 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 4,187,206 | 65.5% |
| Republicans | 2,130,713 | 33.3% |
| Independents and others | 73,319 | 1.1% |
| Total | 6,391,240 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.