2026 forecast · Alabama Treasurer
Young Boozer is all but certain to win Alabama's treasurer race.
Rosilyn Houston vs Young Boozer, with Young Boozer running again. The model has Boozer ahead by 32.4 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +32.4Updated October 22, 2026
Rosilyn Houston
Democrat
33.3%
571,908 projected votes
Young Boozer
Republican
65.7%
1,126,981 projected votes
100%Boozer
0%Houston
Boozer all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Boozer wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Houston +81,484 net votes from 11 countiesStatewide R +32.3, a 555,076 vote marginBoozer +636,560 net votes from 56 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,716,050 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Young Boozer R | 1,126,981 | 65.7% |
| Rosilyn Houston D | 571,908 | 33.3% |
| Other candidates | 17,160 | 1.0% |
| Total | 1,716,050 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
67 counties| County | Houston | Boozer | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 571,908 | 1,126,984 | 17,157 | 1,716,049 | R +32.3 |
| Jefferson County | 136,374 | 96,775 | 2,355 | 235,504 | D +16.8 |
| Madison County | 63,415 | 80,292 | 1,451 | 145,158 | R +11.6 |
| Mobile County | 52,815 | 79,149 | 1,334 | 133,298 | R +19.8 |
| Baldwin County | 15,142 | 72,076 | 881 | 88,099 | R +64.6 |
| Shelby County | 23,237 | 58,882 | 829 | 82,948 | R +43.0 |
| Montgomery County | 47,571 | 25,343 | 736 | 73,650 | D +30.2 |
| Tuscaloosa County | 26,242 | 40,377 | 673 | 67,292 | R +21.0 |
| Lee County | 17,734 | 35,561 | 538 | 53,833 | R +33.1 |
| Morgan County | 7,726 | 31,112 | 393 | 39,231 | R +59.6 |
| Limestone County | 9,012 | 28,572 | 380 | 37,964 | R +51.5 |
| Calhoun County | 9,275 | 26,928 | 365 | 36,568 | R +48.3 |
| Houston County | 7,524 | 26,356 | 342 | 34,222 | R +55.0 |
| Etowah County | 6,593 | 25,999 | 330 | 32,922 | R +59.0 |
| St. Clair County | 4,741 | 27,499 | 326 | 32,566 | R +69.9 |
| Lauderdale County | 6,756 | 24,686 | 318 | 31,760 | R +56.5 |
| Cullman County | 2,476 | 28,642 | 315 | 31,433 | R +83.2 |
| Elmore County | 6,003 | 24,945 | 313 | 31,261 | R +60.6 |
| Marshall County | 3,241 | 25,731 | 292 | 29,264 | R +76.8 |
| Talladega County | 8,016 | 17,774 | 260 | 26,050 | R +37.5 |
| Walker County | 2,596 | 18,931 | 217 | 21,744 | R +75.1 |
| DeKalb County | 2,081 | 18,904 | 212 | 21,197 | R +79.4 |
| Autauga County | 4,528 | 16,368 | 212 | 21,108 | R +56.1 |
| Colbert County | 4,863 | 15,132 | 202 | 20,197 | R +50.9 |
| Blount County | 1,594 | 18,275 | 201 | 20,070 | R +83.1 |
| Coffee County | 2,565 | 14,417 | 171 | 17,153 | R +69.1 |
| Jackson County | 2,070 | 14,611 | 169 | 16,850 | R +74.4 |
| Russell County | 7,468 | 8,083 | 157 | 15,708 | R +3.9 |
| Tallapoosa County | 3,262 | 12,153 | 155 | 15,570 | R +57.1 |
| Dale County | 2,914 | 11,771 | 149 | 14,834 | R +59.7 |
| Chilton County | 1,690 | 12,902 | 148 | 14,740 | R +76.1 |
| Covington County | 1,396 | 11,773 | 133 | 13,302 | R +78.0 |
| Dallas County | 8,662 | 4,440 | 133 | 13,235 | D +31.9 |
| Lawrence County | 2,160 | 10,019 | 123 | 12,302 | R +63.9 |
| Escambia County | 2,646 | 8,954 | 118 | 11,718 | R +53.8 |
| Chambers County | 3,639 | 7,303 | 110 | 11,052 | R +33.1 |
| Pike County | 3,309 | 7,083 | 104 | 10,496 | R +36.0 |
| Marion County | 770 | 9,288 | 102 | 10,160 | R +83.8 |
| Clarke County | 3,766 | 5,879 | 97 | 9,742 | R +21.7 |
| Geneva County | 822 | 8,694 | 96 | 9,612 | R +81.9 |
| Cherokee County | 826 | 8,485 | 95 | 9,406 | R +81.4 |
| Franklin County | 978 | 8,017 | 90 | 9,085 | R +77.5 |
| Winston County | 522 | 7,695 | 83 | 8,300 | R +86.4 |
| Randolph County | 1,051 | 6,969 | 80 | 8,100 | R +73.1 |
| Marengo County | 3,767 | 4,068 | 79 | 7,914 | R +3.8 |
| Barbour County | 2,967 | 4,844 | 79 | 7,890 | R +23.8 |
| Monroe County | 2,735 | 5,028 | 78 | 7,841 | R +29.2 |
| Henry County | 1,482 | 5,945 | 75 | 7,502 | R +59.5 |
| Pickens County | 2,542 | 4,647 | 72 | 7,261 | R +29.0 |
| Bibb County | 1,185 | 5,905 | 72 | 7,162 | R +65.9 |
| Macon County | 5,555 | 1,228 | 69 | 6,852 | D +63.2 |
| Butler County | 2,287 | 4,487 | 69 | 6,843 | R +32.1 |
| Washington County | 1,185 | 5,337 | 66 | 6,588 | R +63.0 |
| Fayette County | 730 | 5,575 | 63 | 6,368 | R +76.1 |
| Hale County | 3,103 | 2,702 | 59 | 5,864 | D +6.8 |
| Cleburne County | 313 | 5,228 | 55 | 5,596 | R +87.8 |
| Choctaw County | 1,884 | 3,569 | 55 | 5,508 | R +30.6 |
| Crenshaw County | 925 | 4,184 | 51 | 5,160 | R +63.1 |
| Lamar County | 482 | 4,601 | 51 | 5,134 | R +80.2 |
| Clay County | 640 | 4,368 | 50 | 5,058 | R +73.7 |
| Conecuh County | 1,859 | 2,966 | 49 | 4,874 | R +22.7 |
| Lowndes County | 3,200 | 1,311 | 45 | 4,556 | D +41.5 |
| Sumter County | 3,307 | 1,191 | 44 | 4,542 | D +46.6 |
| Wilcox County | 2,752 | 1,505 | 43 | 4,300 | D +29.0 |
| Coosa County | 1,109 | 3,077 | 42 | 4,228 | R +46.5 |
| Perry County | 2,621 | 946 | 37 | 3,604 | D +46.5 |
| Greene County | 2,724 | 593 | 33 | 3,350 | D +63.6 |
| Bullock County | 2,483 | 834 | 33 | 3,350 | D +49.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +23.5 and R +41.2. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +20.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +55.1 |
| Blend of every leg | R +30.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +32.7 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +32.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +23.5 and R +41.2.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Houston | Boozer | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||