SearchThe Weighting Room
12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 forecast · Connecticut Comptroller

Sean Scanlon is all but certain to win Connecticut's comptroller race.

Sean Scanlon vs Jennifer S. Tooker, with Sean Scanlon running again. The model has Scanlon ahead by 21.6 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.

Safe DModel D +21.6Updated October 22, 2026
Sean Scanlon
Democrat
60.0%
861,923 projected votes
Jennifer S. Tooker
Republican
38.4%
551,395 projected votes
100%Scanlon
0%Tooker
Scanlon all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Scanlon wins about 100 of 100

Connecticut Comptroller by county

Middlesex CountyNew Haven CountyWindham CountyNew London CountyFairfield CountyTolland CountyLitchfield CountyHartford CountyHartfordFairfieldNew HavenNew LondonMiddlesexTollandLitchfieldWindham
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Hartford County: Scanlon +119,676Fairfield County: Scanlon +90,363New Haven County: Scanlon +56,002New London County: Scanlon +25,003Middlesex County: Scanlon +16,387Tolland County: Scanlon +8,071Litchfield County: Tooker +2,933Windham County: Tooker +2,040
Scanlon +315,502 net votes from 6 countiesStatewide D +21.6, a 310,529 vote marginTooker +4,973 net votes from 2 counties

Projected statewide vote

1,435,542 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Sean Scanlon D861,92360.0%
Jennifer S. Tooker R551,39538.4%
Other candidates22,2221.5%
Total1,435,542100%

Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.

Projected vote by county

8 counties
CountyScanlonTookerOtherTotalMargin
Statewide861,923551,39422,2251,435,542D +21.6
Hartford County255,286135,6106,147397,043D +30.1
Fairfield County202,721112,3584,954320,033D +28.2
New Haven County181,187125,1854,818311,190D +18.0
New London County75,38350,3801,978127,741D +19.6
Middlesex County50,27933,8921,32485,495D +19.2
Tolland County41,72733,6561,18676,569D +10.5
Litchfield County32,87735,8101,08069,767R +4.2
Windham County22,46324,50373847,704R +4.3

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Range of outcomes

80 percent of simulations
D +30.1D +13.1D +21.6

80 percent of simulations fall between D +30.1 and D +13.1. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, governorD +15.7
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +22.0
Blend of every legD +18.6
With incumbency and primary unityD +22.0
With polls, none in the raceD +21.6

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +30.1 and D +13.1.

Polls of the race

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedScanlonTookerMargin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.