2026 forecast · Michigan Governor
Jocelyn Benson is all but certain to win Michigan's governorship.
Jocelyn Benson vs John James, an open seat. The model has Benson ahead by 12.3 points, winning 98 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Safe DModel D +12.3Polls D +8.0Updated October 22, 2026
Jocelyn Benson
Democrat
55.1%
2,739,990 projected votes
John James
Republican
42.9%
2,131,033 projected votes
98%Benson
2%James
Benson all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Benson wins about 98 of 100
RatingSafe D98% chance for Benson
Model marginD +12.3Polls D +8.0
80 percent rangeD +19.0 to D +5.62,000 simulations
Projected votes4,968,910Benson 55.1%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Benson +862,427 net votes from 18 countiesStatewide D +12.0, a 598,413 vote marginJames +264,014 net votes from 65 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Jocelyn BensonDemocrat · 98% to win
3040506070
55.1%
John JamesRepublican · 2% to win
3040506070
42.9%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
4,968,910 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jocelyn Benson D | 2,739,990 | 55.1% |
| John James R | 2,131,033 | 42.9% |
| Other / write-in O | 97,391 | 2.0% |
| Total | 4,968,910 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +19.0 and D +5.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
On Point PollingOct 18 · 518 LV · Gold15%Benson +11.8
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanySep 28 · 1,028 LV · A++14%Benson +9.0
Marist UniversityOct 18 · 1,025 LV · C12%Benson +6.0
Emerson CollegeSep 14 · 1,000 LV · Gold11%Benson +7.0
The Washington Post/SSPGSep 14 · 803 LV · A+9.5%Benson +12.0
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22 · 605 LV · Gold8.9%Benson +5.0
Every other poll together: 30%
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +8.0 | |
| On Point Polling | 518 LV | 0d | D +11.850.8 to 39 |
| Marist University | 1,025 LV | 0d | D +6.051 to 45 |
| YouGov | 3,949 LV | 11d | D +3.048 to 45 |
| Mitchell Research for CBS Detroit | 682 LV | 14d | D +7.046 to 39 |
| Z to A Research (D) | 483 LV | 14d | D +10.050 to 40 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 1,028 LV | 17d | D +9.054 to 45 |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy | 800 LV | 18d | D +5.050 to 45 |
| Marist University | 1,235 RV | 18d | D +12.053 to 41 |
| co/efficient (R) | 843 LV | 22d | D +3.047 to 44 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 605 LV | 23d | D +5.048 to 43 |
| Beacon Research (D)/Cygnal (R) | 600 LV | 24d | D +7.045 to 38 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 25d | D +17.051 to 34 |
| Torchlight Strategies (R) | 643 LV | 26d | D +1.042 to 41 |
| Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 31d | D +7.049 to 42 |
| The Washington Post/SSPG | 803 LV | 31d | D +12.053 to 41 |
| SSRS | 843 LV | 39d | D +9.050 to 41 |
| Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 42d | D +4.047 to 43 |
| EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 48d | D +4.046.5 to 42.5 |
| Michigan State University/YouGov | 779 LV | 56d | D +9.052 to 43 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan | 877 LV | 65d | D +5.049 to 44 |
| Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan | 1,006 RV | 66d | D +5.052 to 47 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | 1,215 LV | 66d | D +16.053 to 37 |
| EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 76d | D +9.047 to 38 |
| Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 282d | R +1.3 |
| Mitchell Research | 616 LV | 328d | R +6.1 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Model margin
Benson +12.3
Chance of winning
Jocelyn Benson98%
John James2%
Simulated vote
Jocelyn Benson55.1%
John James42.9%
Other / write-in2.0%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +1.4
FundamentalsD +18.4
With pollsD +11.9
Early vote turnoutD +0.4
With early voteD +12.3
Read from 861,072 ballots cast so far in Michigan, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
72 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Jocelyn Benson53
- Gretchen WhitmerGovernor of Michigansource
- Pete ButtigiegFormer Transportation Secretarysource
- Jennifer GranholmFormer Governor of Michigan and Energy Secretarysource
- James BlanchardFormer Governor of Michigansource
- Wes MooreGovernor of Marylandsource
- Hillary ScholtenU.S. Rep., MI-03source
- Brenda LawrenceFormer U.S. representative, MI-14source
- Mark SchauerFormer U.S. representative, MI-07source
John James19
- Donald Trumpsource
- Aric NesbittMichigan Senate Minority Leadersource
- Mike CoxFormer Michigan Attorney Generalsource
- Jack BergmanU.S. Rep., MI-01source
- Lisa McClainU.S. Rep., MI-09, House GOP Conference Chairsource
- Matt HallSpeaker of the Michigan Housesource
- Tom LeonardFormer Speaker of the Michigan Housesource
- Jon BumsteadMichigan state senator, SD-32source
On the air
Jason Colthorp: Moderated the WDIV debate between Jocelyn Benson and John James. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Benson | James |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 51.5 | 46.5 |
| Women | 54% | 59.0 | 39.0 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 60.1 | 37.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 55.4 | 42.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 53.1 | 44.9 |
| 65+ | 33% | 56.1 | 41.9 |
| RaceWhite | 79% | 48.0 | 50.0 |
| Black | 12% | 89.9 | 8.4 |
| Latino | 4% | 68.5 | 29.6 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 77.8 | 20.0 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 42.4 | 55.7 |
| White women | 43% | 52.6 | 45.4 |
| Black men | 6% | 88.9 | 9.4 |
| Black women | 7% | 90.7 | 7.6 |
| Latino men | 2% | 65.5 | 32.6 |
| Latino women | 2% | 71.4 | 26.7 |
| All other races | 6% | 77.8 | 20.0 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
83 counties| County | Benson | James | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,734,578 | 2,136,165 | 98,167 | 4,968,910 | D +12.0 |
| Wayne County | 555,457 | 195,113 | 12,204 | 762,774 | D +47.5 |
| Oakland County | 420,244 | 258,695 | 10,339 | 689,278 | D +23.6 |
| Macomb County | 226,309 | 198,029 | 8,219 | 432,557 | D +6.6 |
| Kent County | 180,684 | 142,629 | 6,599 | 329,912 | D +11.9 |
| Washtenaw County | 153,799 | 46,274 | 3,047 | 203,120 | D +53.4 |
| Genesee County | 111,932 | 75,930 | 3,834 | 191,696 | D +18.9 |
| Ottawa County | 64,390 | 90,949 | 2,847 | 158,186 | R +16.6 |
| Ingham County | 95,278 | 38,269 | 2,586 | 136,133 | D +42.1 |
| Kalamazoo County | 81,523 | 47,058 | 2,758 | 131,339 | D +26.6 |
| Livingston County | 49,243 | 61,944 | 2,154 | 113,341 | R +11.2 |
| Saginaw County | 46,659 | 41,864 | 1,714 | 90,237 | D +5.5 |
| Muskegon County | 44,731 | 34,602 | 3,220 | 82,553 | D +12.3 |
| St. Clair County | 32,408 | 47,170 | 2,125 | 81,703 | R +17.9 |
| Monroe County | 33,440 | 41,861 | 1,615 | 76,916 | R +10.9 |
| Berrien County | 35,798 | 35,681 | 1,607 | 73,086 | D +0.3 |
| Jackson County | 32,925 | 38,359 | 1,678 | 72,962 | R +7.4 |
| Allegan County | 24,679 | 36,038 | 1,366 | 62,083 | R +18.2 |
| Calhoun County | 28,292 | 29,231 | 1,354 | 58,877 | R +1.4 |
| Eaton County | 31,810 | 24,645 | 1,211 | 57,666 | D +12.4 |
| Grand Traverse County | 29,407 | 25,170 | 1,227 | 55,804 | D +7.7 |
| Bay County | 25,321 | 26,373 | 1,271 | 52,965 | R +1.8 |
| Lenawee County | 19,918 | 26,407 | 1,090 | 47,415 | R +13.5 |
| Lapeer County | 16,578 | 29,435 | 1,179 | 47,192 | R +27.3 |
| Midland County | 19,871 | 23,602 | 978 | 44,451 | R +8.2 |
| Clinton County | 22,712 | 20,455 | 791 | 43,958 | D +5.2 |
| Van Buren County | 17,021 | 17,450 | 884 | 35,355 | R +1.2 |
| Marquette County | 20,547 | 13,852 | 702 | 35,101 | D +19.3 |
| Shiawassee County | 15,419 | 18,572 | 872 | 34,863 | R +8.9 |
| Barry County | 12,796 | 19,531 | 795 | 33,122 | R +20.2 |
| Ionia County | 11,844 | 17,324 | 748 | 29,916 | R +18.3 |
| Montcalm County | 10,566 | 18,360 | 834 | 29,760 | R +26.1 |
| Isabella County | 14,367 | 13,029 | 673 | 28,069 | D +4.9 |
| Tuscola County | 8,703 | 16,776 | 654 | 26,133 | R +30.8 |
| St. Joseph County | 9,150 | 15,100 | 698 | 24,948 | R +23.8 |
| Newaygo County | 8,100 | 16,147 | 647 | 24,894 | R +32.2 |
| Cass County | 8,632 | 14,325 | 564 | 23,521 | R +24.1 |
| Hillsdale County | 6,178 | 14,338 | 547 | 21,063 | R +38.5 |
| Emmet County | 9,836 | 10,061 | 447 | 20,344 | R +1.0 |
| Sanilac County | 6,111 | 13,575 | 484 | 20,170 | R +37.0 |
| Mecosta County | 7,634 | 11,406 | 509 | 19,549 | R +19.2 |
| Delta County | 7,508 | 10,979 | 378 | 18,865 | R +18.3 |
| Branch County | 6,412 | 11,394 | 438 | 18,244 | R +27.3 |
| Houghton County | 8,251 | 8,854 | 402 | 17,507 | R +3.2 |
| Gratiot County | 6,836 | 10,132 | 453 | 17,421 | R +18.8 |
| Wexford County | 6,011 | 10,101 | 464 | 16,576 | R +24.6 |
| Chippewa County | 7,084 | 8,917 | 394 | 16,395 | R +11.1 |
| Huron County | 5,313 | 10,502 | 356 | 16,171 | R +31.9 |
| Mason County | 6,886 | 8,542 | 380 | 15,808 | R +10.5 |
| Charlevoix County | 7,104 | 8,041 | 341 | 15,486 | R +5.8 |
| Leelanau County | 8,486 | 6,584 | 230 | 15,300 | D +12.6 |
| Alpena County | 6,012 | 8,573 | 358 | 14,943 | R +16.9 |
| Clare County | 5,045 | 9,134 | 408 | 14,587 | R +27.8 |
| Antrim County | 6,203 | 8,054 | 306 | 14,563 | R +12.4 |
| Cheboygan County | 5,683 | 8,286 | 358 | 14,327 | R +18.0 |
| Roscommon County | 5,357 | 8,129 | 331 | 13,817 | R +19.9 |
| Otsego County | 5,079 | 8,209 | 327 | 13,615 | R +22.8 |
| Iosco County | 5,319 | 7,917 | 326 | 13,562 | R +19.1 |
| Manistee County | 6,342 | 6,872 | 324 | 13,538 | R +3.9 |
| Dickinson County | 4,724 | 8,167 | 263 | 13,154 | R +25.9 |
| Gladwin County | 4,423 | 8,331 | 327 | 13,081 | R +29.6 |
| Oceana County | 5,221 | 7,496 | 313 | 13,030 | R +17.4 |
| Osceola County | 3,235 | 7,680 | 337 | 11,252 | R +39.4 |
| Benzie County | 5,732 | 5,169 | 234 | 11,135 | D +5.3 |
| Menominee County | 4,127 | 6,650 | 231 | 11,008 | R +22.8 |
| Ogemaw County | 3,697 | 6,764 | 290 | 10,751 | R +28.4 |
| Kalkaska County | 3,278 | 6,070 | 309 | 9,657 | R +28.7 |
| Missaukee County | 2,098 | 5,644 | 166 | 7,908 | R +44.7 |
| Arenac County | 2,720 | 4,816 | 209 | 7,745 | R +27.0 |
| Presque Isle County | 3,103 | 4,358 | 183 | 7,644 | R +16.2 |
| Gogebic County | 3,363 | 3,663 | 151 | 7,177 | R +4.1 |
| Crawford County | 2,685 | 4,257 | 200 | 7,142 | R +21.9 |
| Alcona County | 2,100 | 4,089 | 133 | 6,322 | R +31.4 |
| Mackinac County | 2,684 | 3,517 | 120 | 6,321 | R +12.9 |
| Iron County | 2,567 | 3,393 | 134 | 6,094 | R +13.3 |
| Lake County | 2,325 | 3,387 | 171 | 5,883 | R +17.8 |
| Montmorency County | 1,741 | 3,550 | 141 | 5,432 | R +32.9 |
| Alger County | 2,117 | 2,429 | 107 | 4,653 | R +6.6 |
| Oscoda County | 1,431 | 2,807 | 126 | 4,364 | R +31.3 |
| Schoolcraft County | 1,600 | 2,504 | 101 | 4,205 | R +21.2 |
| Baraga County | 1,442 | 2,269 | 80 | 3,791 | R +21.6 |
| Ontonagon County | 1,401 | 1,889 | 91 | 3,381 | R +14.2 |
| Luce County | 853 | 1,733 | 77 | 2,663 | R +33.0 |
| Keweenaw County | 668 | 684 | 28 | 1,380 | R +0.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.