Mike Kelly is very likely to win Pennsylvania's 16th District.
Justin Wagner vs Mike Kelly. The model has Kelly ahead by 10.5 points, winning 94 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The district map
Every district in the state, shaded by its rating
Pennsylvania districts
17 districtsVote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected district vote
358,298 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Kelly R | 198,013 | 55.3% |
| Justin Wagner D | 160,285 | 44.7% |
| Total | 358,298 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | No polls |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 0 ballots cast so far in Pennsylvania, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time