2026 forecast · Rhode Island Attorney General
Kimberly Ahern is all but certain to win Rhode Island's attorney general race.
Kimberly Ahern vs Alan Gordon, an open seat. The model has Ahern ahead by 29.5 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +29.5Polls D +20.3Updated October 22, 2026
Kimberly Ahern
Democrat
64.3%
273,677 projected votes
Alan Gordon
Republican
34.7%
147,992 projected votes
100%Ahern
0%Gordon
Ahern all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Ahern wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Ahern +125,684 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide D +29.5, a 125,684 vote marginGordon +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected statewide vote
425,929 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kimberly Ahern D | 273,677 | 64.3% |
| Alan Gordon R | 147,992 | 34.7% |
| Other candidates | 4,259 | 1.0% |
| Total | 425,929 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
5 counties| County | Ahern | Gordon | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 273,677 | 147,993 | 4,259 | 425,929 | D +29.5 |
| Providence County | 145,938 | 75,012 | 2,232 | 223,182 | D +31.8 |
| Kent County | 44,392 | 31,516 | 766 | 76,674 | D +16.8 |
| Washington County | 40,597 | 23,543 | 648 | 64,788 | D +26.3 |
| Newport County | 26,150 | 11,269 | 378 | 37,797 | D +39.4 |
| Bristol County | 16,600 | 6,653 | 235 | 23,488 | D +42.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +36.9 and D +22.1. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +24.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +42.3 |
| Blend of every leg | D +32.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +32.3 |
| With polls, 21% weight | D +29.5 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +36.9 and D +22.1.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Ahern | Gordon | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salve Regina Pell Center/Embold Research | 815 LV | 2026-10-08 | 52 | 34 | D +18.0 |