2026 forecast · Florida Attorney General
James Uthmeier is favored to win Florida's attorney general race.
José Javier Rodríguez vs James Uthmeier, with James Uthmeier running again. The model has Uthmeier ahead by 5.3 points, with a 84 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +5.3Polls R +4.4Updated October 22, 2026
José Javier Rodríguez
Democrat
46.6%
4,160,137 projected votes
James Uthmeier
Republican
51.9%
4,636,879 projected votes
84%Uthmeier
16%Rodríguez
Uthmeier favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Uthmeier wins about 84 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Rodríguez +694,726 net votes from 12 countiesStatewide R +5.3, a 476,741 vote marginUthmeier +1,171,467 net votes from 55 counties
Projected statewide vote
8,936,569 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| James Uthmeier R | 4,636,879 | 51.9% |
| José Javier Rodríguez D | 4,160,137 | 46.6% |
| Other candidates | 139,552 | 1.6% |
| Total | 8,936,569 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
67 counties| County | Rodríguez | Uthmeier | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,160,138 | 4,636,879 | 139,553 | 8,936,570 | R +5.3 |
| Miami-Dade County | 442,826 | 378,378 | 13,028 | 834,232 | D +7.7 |
| Broward County | 470,051 | 226,780 | 11,055 | 707,886 | D +34.4 |
| Palm Beach County | 343,891 | 266,587 | 9,684 | 620,162 | D +12.5 |
| Hillsborough County | 295,877 | 256,884 | 8,769 | 561,530 | D +6.9 |
| Orange County | 307,306 | 182,866 | 7,776 | 497,948 | D +25.0 |
| Pinellas County | 231,535 | 215,690 | 7,095 | 454,320 | D +3.5 |
| Duval County | 208,313 | 181,533 | 6,184 | 396,030 | D +6.8 |
| Lee County | 115,271 | 203,722 | 5,061 | 324,054 | R +27.3 |
| Brevard County | 119,864 | 174,022 | 4,662 | 298,548 | R +18.1 |
| Polk County | 111,553 | 161,750 | 4,335 | 277,638 | R +18.1 |
| Volusia County | 104,781 | 147,585 | 4,004 | 256,370 | R +16.7 |
| Pasco County | 97,696 | 154,162 | 3,996 | 255,854 | R +22.1 |
| Sarasota County | 101,865 | 131,965 | 3,710 | 237,540 | R +12.7 |
| Seminole County | 104,805 | 99,796 | 3,245 | 207,846 | D +2.4 |
| Manatee County | 75,809 | 113,056 | 2,996 | 191,861 | R +19.4 |
| Lake County | 67,118 | 112,572 | 2,850 | 182,540 | R +24.9 |
| Collier County | 58,655 | 120,291 | 2,838 | 181,784 | R +33.9 |
| Marion County | 59,399 | 113,860 | 2,749 | 176,008 | R +30.9 |
| St. Johns County | 54,544 | 101,457 | 2,475 | 158,476 | R +29.6 |
| St. Lucie County | 67,696 | 76,034 | 2,281 | 146,011 | R +5.7 |
| Leon County | 89,277 | 46,570 | 2,155 | 138,002 | D +30.9 |
| Escambia County | 55,489 | 77,976 | 2,117 | 135,582 | R +16.6 |
| Osceola County | 69,128 | 57,777 | 2,013 | 128,918 | D +8.8 |
| Alachua County | 75,896 | 39,687 | 1,833 | 117,416 | D +30.8 |
| Charlotte County | 33,800 | 67,384 | 1,606 | 102,790 | R +32.7 |
| Clay County | 30,036 | 70,284 | 1,590 | 101,910 | R +39.5 |
| Sumter County | 27,006 | 64,795 | 1,455 | 93,256 | R +40.5 |
| Okaloosa County | 25,674 | 65,425 | 1,445 | 92,544 | R +43.0 |
| Hernando County | 29,691 | 59,056 | 1,407 | 90,154 | R +32.6 |
| Santa Rosa County | 20,579 | 66,299 | 1,378 | 88,256 | R +51.8 |
| Indian River County | 30,690 | 52,183 | 1,314 | 84,187 | R +25.5 |
| Martin County | 29,637 | 52,522 | 1,303 | 83,462 | R +27.4 |
| Citrus County | 22,793 | 58,409 | 1,288 | 82,490 | R +43.2 |
| Bay County | 19,875 | 57,744 | 1,232 | 78,851 | R +48.0 |
| Flagler County | 23,672 | 40,596 | 1,020 | 65,288 | R +25.9 |
| Nassau County | 13,468 | 37,634 | 812 | 51,914 | R +46.5 |
| Highlands County | 12,931 | 30,583 | 690 | 44,204 | R +39.9 |
| Walton County | 8,233 | 30,896 | 621 | 39,750 | R +57.0 |
| Monroe County | 17,001 | 19,690 | 583 | 37,274 | R +7.2 |
| Putnam County | 8,347 | 21,358 | 471 | 30,176 | R +43.1 |
| Columbia County | 7,081 | 20,217 | 433 | 27,731 | R +47.4 |
| Levy County | 4,968 | 14,727 | 313 | 20,008 | R +48.8 |
| Gadsden County | 13,783 | 5,414 | 304 | 19,501 | D +42.9 |
| Jackson County | 5,619 | 13,038 | 296 | 18,953 | R +39.1 |
| Suwannee County | 3,642 | 14,436 | 286 | 18,364 | R +58.8 |
| Wakulla County | 5,019 | 11,251 | 258 | 16,528 | R +37.7 |
| Okeechobee County | 3,141 | 9,806 | 206 | 13,153 | R +50.7 |
| Baker County | 1,711 | 10,329 | 190 | 12,230 | R +70.5 |
| Bradford County | 2,589 | 8,827 | 181 | 11,597 | R +53.8 |
| DeSoto County | 3,135 | 7,273 | 166 | 10,574 | R +39.1 |
| Hendry County | 3,281 | 7,048 | 163 | 10,492 | R +35.9 |
| Washington County | 1,901 | 8,385 | 164 | 10,450 | R +62.1 |
| Gilchrist County | 1,325 | 7,239 | 135 | 8,699 | R +68.0 |
| Taylor County | 1,943 | 6,499 | 134 | 8,576 | R +53.1 |
| Madison County | 3,016 | 4,701 | 123 | 7,840 | R +21.5 |
| Holmes County | 809 | 6,808 | 121 | 7,738 | R +77.5 |
| Jefferson County | 3,410 | 4,014 | 118 | 7,542 | R +8.0 |
| Gulf County | 1,693 | 5,480 | 113 | 7,286 | R +52.0 |
| Dixie County | 1,055 | 5,767 | 108 | 6,930 | R +68.0 |
| Hardee County | 1,529 | 5,256 | 107 | 6,892 | R +54.1 |
| Franklin County | 1,798 | 4,006 | 92 | 5,896 | R +37.5 |
| Calhoun County | 1,006 | 4,364 | 86 | 5,456 | R +61.5 |
| Union County | 904 | 4,372 | 84 | 5,360 | R +64.7 |
| Hamilton County | 1,685 | 3,201 | 78 | 4,964 | R +30.5 |
| Glades County | 1,067 | 3,378 | 70 | 4,515 | R +51.2 |
| Lafayette County | 412 | 2,785 | 51 | 3,248 | R +73.1 |
| Liberty County | 538 | 2,400 | 47 | 2,985 | R +62.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +1.6 and R +12.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +5.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +4.3 |
| Blend of every leg | R +3.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +7.1 |
| With polls, 62% weight | R +5.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +1.6 and R +12.3.
Polls of the race
4 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Rodríguez | Uthmeier | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | LV | 2026-10-07 | 43 | 45 | R +2.0 |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (conservative) | 854 LV | 2026-10-04 | 40 | 50 | R +10.0 |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 913 LV | 2026-09-17 | 42 | 43 | R +1.0 |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USA (listed as D on Wikipedia) | 1,107 LV | 2026-09-09 | 46 | 46 | R +0.0 |