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2026 ballot measure forecast

Idaho HJR 4

Only Legislature may legalize marijuana and drugs

Gives the Legislature sole power to legalize marijuana, narcotics and other psychoactive substances, blocking legalization by citizen initiative. The forecast has Yes at 61.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 86% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureMarijuanaUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
86%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
61.2%
80% range 48 to 73
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
61.2% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
61.2% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Referred by Republican legislature; Democrats oppose saying it removes voter power.

Also on the Idaho ballot

Advisory Question
Advisory vote on official state gun
49%
HJR 6
English as official state language
95%
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
Restore abortion access before viability
23%

HJR 4 by county

Ada CountyAdams CountyBannock CountyBear Lake CountyBenewah CountyBingham CountyBlaine CountyBoise CountyBonner CountyBonneville CountyBoundary CountyButte CountyCamas CountyCanyon CountyCaribou CountyCassia CountyClark CountyClearwater CountyCuster CountyElmore CountyFranklin CountyFremont CountyGem CountyGooding CountyIdaho CountyJefferson CountyJerome CountyKootenai CountyLatah CountyLemhi CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyMadison CountyMinidoka CountyNez Perce CountyOneida CountyOwyhee CountyPayette CountyPower CountyShoshone CountyTeton CountyTwin Falls CountyValley CountyWashington CountyAdaCanyonKootenaiBonnevilleBannockTwin FallsBonnerLatahNez PerceBinghamJeffersonMadison
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Kootenai County: Yes +22,738Canyon County: Yes +20,608Ada County: Yes +12,319Bonneville County: Yes +11,465Twin Falls County: Yes +8,415Bonner County: Yes +6,281Bingham County: Yes +5,775Jefferson County: Yes +5,508Madison County: Yes +4,643Bannock County: Yes +4,401Payette County: Yes +3,568Nez Perce County: Yes +3,532Gem County: Yes +3,516Idaho County: Yes +3,493Cassia County: Yes +3,255Franklin County: Yes +2,813Elmore County: Yes +2,451Minidoka County: Yes +2,424Boundary County: Yes +2,334Fremont County: Yes +2,311Jerome County: Yes +2,001Gooding County: Yes +1,792Washington County: Yes +1,693Owyhee County: Yes +1,689Benewah County: Yes +1,515Shoshone County: Yes +1,453Clearwater County: Yes +1,410Bear Lake County: Yes +1,355Lemhi County: Yes +1,304Boise County: Yes +1,254Caribou County: Yes +1,214Oneida County: Yes +967Latah County: Yes +772Adams County: Yes +714Custer County: Yes +695Power County: Yes +632Lewis County: Yes +611Valley County: Yes +599Butte County: Yes +529Lincoln County: Yes +528Camas County: Yes +167Clark County: Yes +107Blaine County: No +1,905Teton County: No +187
Yes +154,851 net votes from 42 countiesStatewide Yes +22.4, a 152,759 vote marginNo +2,092 net votes from 2 counties

Projected vote

682,189 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes417,47461.2%
No264,71538.8%
Total682,189100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Ada County107,92395,604203,52753.0%
Canyon County47,02126,41373,43464.0%
Kootenai County47,39424,65672,05065.8%
Bonneville County26,59115,12641,71763.7%
Bannock County17,18712,78629,97357.3%
Twin Falls County18,42210,00728,42964.8%
Bonner County14,4888,20722,69563.8%
Latah County8,5317,75916,29052.4%
Nez Perce County9,5015,96915,47061.4%
Bingham County10,5774,80215,37968.8%
Jefferson County8,3242,81611,14074.7%
Madison County7,8653,22211,08770.9%
Blaine County4,2736,17810,45140.9%
Payette County6,2732,7058,97869.9%
Elmore County5,4002,9498,34964.7%
Gem County5,9152,3998,31471.1%
Idaho County5,6982,2057,90372.1%
Cassia County5,2231,9687,19172.6%
Jerome County4,0352,0346,06966.5%
Minidoka County4,2321,8086,04070.1%
Valley County3,0942,4955,58955.4%
Boundary County3,9451,6115,55671.0%
Franklin County4,0121,1995,21177.0%
Fremont County3,6961,3855,08172.7%
Teton County2,4252,6125,03748.1%
Shoshone County3,1501,6974,84765.0%
Gooding County3,2541,4624,71669.0%
Washington County3,0331,3404,37369.4%
Benewah County2,7151,2003,91569.3%
Owyhee County2,7831,0943,87771.8%
Lemhi County2,5761,2723,84866.9%
Boise County2,5101,2563,76666.6%
Clearwater County2,4791,0693,54869.9%
Bear Lake County1,9606052,56576.4%
Caribou County1,8826682,55073.8%
Power County1,4808482,32863.6%
Adams County1,4227082,13066.8%
Custer County1,4117162,12766.3%
Oneida County1,4004331,83376.4%
Lincoln County1,0194911,51067.5%
Lewis County1,0434321,47570.7%
Butte County8082791,08774.3%
Camas County33016349366.9%
Clark County1746724172.2%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
HJR 4 is forecast as a marijuana measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Idaho's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: legislature.idaho.gov, kmvt.com. All measures.