2026 ballot measure forecast
Maryland Question 1
Require budget to fund state worker contracts
Requires the governor's budget to fully fund state employee collective bargaining agreements, including terms set by a neutral arbitrator (HB 604, Arbitration Reform for State Employees Act of 2026). The forecast has Yes at 75.5 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
75.5%80% range 64 to 84
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 75.5% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 75.5% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority.
The campaign
Backed by state employee unions; no organized campaign or money reported in sources reviewed.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +1,200,528 net votes from 24 countiesStatewide Yes +51.0, a 1,200,528 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
2,354,428 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1,777,478 | 75.5% |
| No | 576,950 | 24.5% |
| Total | 2,354,428 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomery County | 331,554 | 74,698 | 406,252 | 81.6% |
| Prince George's County | 281,441 | 39,015 | 320,456 | 87.8% |
| Baltimore County | 235,986 | 81,876 | 317,862 | 74.2% |
| Anne Arundel County | 170,758 | 67,823 | 238,581 | 71.6% |
| Baltimore city | 166,944 | 24,585 | 191,529 | 87.2% |
| Howard County | 113,096 | 30,647 | 143,743 | 78.7% |
| Frederick County | 82,293 | 34,856 | 117,149 | 70.2% |
| Harford County | 71,710 | 40,174 | 111,884 | 64.1% |
| Carroll County | 46,139 | 29,837 | 75,976 | 60.7% |
| Charles County | 53,551 | 14,855 | 68,406 | 78.3% |
| Washington County | 34,515 | 21,736 | 56,251 | 61.4% |
| St. Mary's County | 27,442 | 16,041 | 43,483 | 63.1% |
| Calvert County | 26,455 | 14,299 | 40,754 | 64.9% |
| Cecil County | 22,783 | 15,917 | 38,700 | 58.9% |
| Wicomico County | 24,025 | 12,133 | 36,158 | 66.4% |
| Allegany County | 14,111 | 11,262 | 25,373 | 55.6% |
| Worcester County | 15,488 | 9,620 | 25,108 | 61.7% |
| Queen Anne's County | 14,293 | 9,577 | 23,870 | 59.9% |
| Talbot County | 12,219 | 5,771 | 17,990 | 67.9% |
| Dorchester County | 8,315 | 4,701 | 13,016 | 63.9% |
| Garrett County | 6,200 | 6,172 | 12,372 | 50.1% |
| Caroline County | 6,913 | 5,344 | 12,257 | 56.4% |
| Kent County | 5,942 | 2,904 | 8,846 | 67.2% |
| Somerset County | 5,305 | 3,107 | 8,412 | 63.1% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Question 1 is forecast as a labor measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Maryland's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.maryland.gov, theballotbrief.com. All measures.