2026 ballot measure forecast
North Carolina Photo ID Amendment
Photo ID for all voters including mail
Requires every voter, not only those voting in person, to present photo identification before voting. The forecast has Yes at 69.7 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.7%80% range 62 to 77
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
67.0%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 73.0% Yes
- Polls
- 67.0% Yes
- Forecast
- 69.7% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
The campaign
Backed by Republican legislative majority; opposed by Democrats and voting rights groups; no money reported.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +1,646,093 net votes from 99 countiesStatewide Yes +39.5, a 1,642,341 vote marginNo +3,752 net votes from 1 counties
Projected vote
4,159,487 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2,900,914 | 69.7% |
| No | 1,258,573 | 30.3% |
| Total | 4,159,487 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake County | 308,360 | 183,885 | 492,245 | 62.6% |
| Mecklenburg County | 252,296 | 165,972 | 418,268 | 60.3% |
| Guilford County | 133,966 | 76,068 | 210,034 | 63.8% |
| Forsyth County | 99,230 | 50,433 | 149,663 | 66.3% |
| Durham County | 69,722 | 73,474 | 143,196 | 48.7% |
| Buncombe County | 78,984 | 46,593 | 125,577 | 62.9% |
| New Hanover County | 71,546 | 31,243 | 102,789 | 69.6% |
| Cumberland County | 67,640 | 34,533 | 102,173 | 66.2% |
| Union County | 73,647 | 23,329 | 96,976 | 75.9% |
| Johnston County | 64,142 | 21,320 | 85,462 | 75.1% |
| Cabarrus County | 60,511 | 23,870 | 84,381 | 71.7% |
| Gaston County | 63,204 | 20,097 | 83,301 | 75.9% |
| Brunswick County | 58,923 | 18,785 | 77,708 | 75.8% |
| Iredell County | 59,565 | 17,126 | 76,691 | 77.7% |
| Orange County | 37,881 | 32,652 | 70,533 | 53.7% |
| Alamance County | 47,129 | 18,494 | 65,623 | 71.8% |
| Davidson County | 53,005 | 12,348 | 65,353 | 81.1% |
| Pitt County | 43,216 | 20,139 | 63,355 | 68.2% |
| Catawba County | 48,204 | 12,869 | 61,073 | 78.9% |
| Onslow County | 44,592 | 12,243 | 56,835 | 78.5% |
| Rowan County | 41,924 | 11,524 | 53,448 | 78.4% |
| Randolph County | 44,585 | 8,783 | 53,368 | 83.5% |
| Henderson County | 38,897 | 14,110 | 53,007 | 73.4% |
| Moore County | 34,996 | 10,493 | 45,489 | 76.9% |
| Harnett County | 33,090 | 10,504 | 43,594 | 75.9% |
| Craven County | 30,399 | 10,217 | 40,616 | 74.8% |
| Wayne County | 29,401 | 10,429 | 39,830 | 73.8% |
| Chatham County | 26,369 | 13,309 | 39,678 | 66.5% |
| Lincoln County | 31,510 | 7,513 | 39,023 | 80.7% |
| Nash County | 27,123 | 11,507 | 38,630 | 70.2% |
| Cleveland County | 28,576 | 7,964 | 36,540 | 78.2% |
| Rockingham County | 27,795 | 7,645 | 35,440 | 78.4% |
| Carteret County | 27,120 | 6,723 | 33,843 | 80.1% |
| Burke County | 26,216 | 6,684 | 32,900 | 79.7% |
| Robeson County | 24,465 | 7,521 | 31,986 | 76.5% |
| Caldwell County | 25,177 | 5,376 | 30,553 | 82.4% |
| Franklin County | 21,904 | 8,045 | 29,949 | 73.1% |
| Wilson County | 20,120 | 8,762 | 28,882 | 69.7% |
| Haywood County | 21,248 | 6,742 | 27,990 | 75.9% |
| Surry County | 22,204 | 4,687 | 26,891 | 82.6% |
| Wilkes County | 22,163 | 4,178 | 26,341 | 84.1% |
| Pender County | 20,603 | 5,737 | 26,340 | 78.2% |
| Stanly County | 21,104 | 4,640 | 25,744 | 82.0% |
| Rutherford County | 20,507 | 4,735 | 25,242 | 81.2% |
| Watauga County | 17,107 | 7,975 | 25,082 | 68.2% |
| Granville County | 17,120 | 6,618 | 23,738 | 72.1% |
| Lee County | 15,840 | 5,543 | 21,383 | 74.1% |
| Lenoir County | 14,394 | 5,746 | 20,140 | 71.5% |
| Sampson County | 15,331 | 4,585 | 19,916 | 77.0% |
| Beaufort County | 15,233 | 4,475 | 19,708 | 77.3% |
| Columbus County | 15,318 | 4,365 | 19,683 | 77.8% |
| Stokes County | 16,314 | 3,075 | 19,389 | 84.1% |
| Davie County | 15,516 | 3,644 | 19,160 | 81.0% |
| Dare County | 13,739 | 4,729 | 18,468 | 74.4% |
| Edgecombe County | 11,213 | 6,425 | 17,638 | 63.6% |
| Halifax County | 11,407 | 6,135 | 17,542 | 65.0% |
| McDowell County | 13,920 | 3,143 | 17,063 | 81.6% |
| Jackson County | 11,901 | 4,600 | 16,501 | 72.1% |
| Duplin County | 12,661 | 3,828 | 16,489 | 76.8% |
| Macon County | 12,971 | 3,461 | 16,432 | 78.9% |
| Transylvania County | 11,918 | 4,452 | 16,370 | 72.8% |
| Person County | 12,206 | 3,948 | 16,154 | 75.6% |
| Hoke County | 10,816 | 5,038 | 15,854 | 68.2% |
| Alexander County | 13,029 | 2,443 | 15,472 | 84.2% |
| Pasquotank County | 10,844 | 4,430 | 15,274 | 71.0% |
| Yadkin County | 12,585 | 2,243 | 14,828 | 84.9% |
| Vance County | 9,643 | 4,916 | 14,559 | 66.2% |
| Richmond County | 10,569 | 3,546 | 14,115 | 74.9% |
| Cherokee County | 10,885 | 2,129 | 13,014 | 83.6% |
| Currituck County | 10,241 | 2,355 | 12,596 | 81.3% |
| Bladen County | 9,258 | 3,126 | 12,384 | 74.8% |
| Ashe County | 9,823 | 2,386 | 12,209 | 80.5% |
| Scotland County | 7,699 | 3,068 | 10,767 | 71.5% |
| Madison County | 7,788 | 2,522 | 10,310 | 75.5% |
| Polk County | 7,474 | 2,373 | 9,847 | 75.9% |
| Montgomery County | 7,473 | 2,001 | 9,474 | 78.9% |
| Martin County | 6,517 | 2,493 | 9,010 | 72.3% |
| Yancey County | 6,859 | 1,923 | 8,782 | 78.1% |
| Caswell County | 6,632 | 2,123 | 8,755 | 75.8% |
| Anson County | 5,544 | 2,331 | 7,875 | 70.4% |
| Warren County | 4,948 | 2,710 | 7,658 | 64.6% |
| Hertford County | 4,535 | 2,736 | 7,271 | 62.4% |
| Avery County | 5,957 | 1,276 | 7,233 | 82.4% |
| Northampton County | 4,671 | 2,415 | 7,086 | 65.9% |
| Bertie County | 4,536 | 2,379 | 6,915 | 65.6% |
| Mitchell County | 5,595 | 1,130 | 6,725 | 83.2% |
| Greene County | 4,791 | 1,665 | 6,456 | 74.2% |
| Pamlico County | 4,769 | 1,383 | 6,152 | 77.5% |
| Chowan County | 4,322 | 1,421 | 5,743 | 75.3% |
| Clay County | 4,694 | 1,045 | 5,739 | 81.8% |
| Perquimans County | 4,524 | 1,181 | 5,705 | 79.3% |
| Swain County | 3,892 | 1,258 | 5,150 | 75.6% |
| Alleghany County | 4,144 | 894 | 5,038 | 82.3% |
| Camden County | 3,694 | 812 | 4,506 | 82.0% |
| Washington County | 2,985 | 1,395 | 4,380 | 68.2% |
| Gates County | 3,280 | 1,089 | 4,369 | 75.1% |
| Jones County | 3,067 | 967 | 4,034 | 76.0% |
| Graham County | 3,075 | 532 | 3,607 | 85.3% |
| Hyde County | 1,393 | 460 | 1,853 | 75.2% |
| Tyrrell County | 995 | 331 | 1,326 | 75.0% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon University Poll / YouGov | LV | 2026-08-31 | 63 | 25 | 12 | 67.0% |
| YouGov | 1,000 A | 70 |
How this is built
Photo ID Amendment is forecast as a voter id measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with North Carolina's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: s3.amazonaws.com, theballotbrief.com, ncnewsline.com, elon.edu. All measures.