Tina Kotek is very likely to win Oregon's governorship.
Tina Kotek vs Christine Drazan. The model has Kotek ahead by 11.0 points, winning 96 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
2,061,449 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Tina Kotek D | 1,113,341 | 54.0% |
| Christine Drazan R | 885,646 | 43.0% |
| Brett Smith G | 62,462 | 3.0% |
| Total | 2,061,449 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +18.8 and D +3.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +0.5 | |
| GBAO (D) | 800 LV | 11d | D +4.046 to 42 |
| DHM Research for The Oregonian | 549 LV | 14d | D +2.046 to 44 |
| DHM Research/Oregon Public Broadcasting | 915 LV | 18d | R +2.044 to 46 |
| DHM Research | 600 LV | 36d | R +2.043 to 45 |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 600 RV | 113d | R +4.044 to 48 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 155,137 ballots cast so far in Oregon, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
36 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Suzanne BonamiciU.S. Representative OR-1source
- Maxine DexterU.S. Representative OR-3source
- Val HoyleU.S. Representative OR-4source
- Janelle BynumU.S. Representative OR-5source
- Andrea SalinasU.S. Representative OR-6source
- Dan RayfieldOregon Attorney Generalsource
- Keith WilsonMayor of Portlandsource
- Oregon AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
- Oregon State FOP Labor CoalitionPolice unionsource
- Oregon Farm BureauFarm groupsource
- Oregon Right to LifeAnti abortion groupsource
- Associated General Contractors Oregon-ColumbiaContractors groupsource
- Libertarian Party of OregonMinor party, cross nominationsource
- The OregonianNewspaper editorial boardsource
- Maggie's ListPAC supporting conservative women candidatessource
Remy Numa: Fox News Power Rankings moved Oregon governor from Likely D to Lean D, citing Gov. Kotek's lethargic debate. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Kotek | Drazan |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 47.4 | 49.6 |
| Women | 54% | 56.5 | 40.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 53.9 | 43.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 24% | 52.4 | 44.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 30% | 50.3 | 46.7 |
| 65+ | 33% | 53.4 | 43.6 |
| RaceWhite | 81% | 47.6 | 49.4 |
| Black | 2% | 87.6 | 9.8 |
| Latino | 8% | 64.5 | 32.6 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 76.0 | 20.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 40.9 | 56.1 |
| White women | 45% | 53.0 | 43.9 |
| Latino men | 4% | 62.0 | 35.0 |
| Latino women | 4% | 67.0 | 30.0 |
| All other races | 9% | 76.0 | 20.6 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
36 counties| County | Kotek | Drazan | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,115,126 | 883,858 | 62,465 | 2,061,449 | D +11.2 |
| Multnomah County | 314,264 | 68,975 | 9,827 | 393,066 | D +62.3 |
| Washington County | 173,726 | 90,563 | 8,174 | 272,463 | D +30.5 |
| Clackamas County | 110,593 | 104,943 | 6,437 | 221,973 | D +2.5 |
| Lane County | 118,841 | 69,047 | 5,413 | 193,301 | D +25.6 |
| Marion County | 64,158 | 74,878 | 4,448 | 143,484 | R +7.6 |
| Deschutes County | 57,861 | 51,892 | 3,863 | 113,616 | D +5.1 |
| Jackson County | 50,884 | 56,199 | 2,858 | 109,941 | R +5.0 |
| Linn County | 19,713 | 42,350 | 2,185 | 64,248 | R +35.5 |
| Douglas County | 13,993 | 40,656 | 1,865 | 56,514 | R +47.5 |
| Yamhill County | 21,815 | 28,784 | 1,781 | 52,380 | R +13.5 |
| Benton County | 32,637 | 14,202 | 1,201 | 48,040 | D +38.4 |
| Josephine County | 14,041 | 29,451 | 1,346 | 44,838 | R +34.6 |
| Polk County | 19,249 | 22,786 | 1,345 | 43,380 | R +8.3 |
| Coos County | 11,309 | 20,322 | 1,147 | 32,778 | R +27.6 |
| Klamath County | 7,172 | 24,552 | 880 | 32,604 | R +53.6 |
| Umatilla County | 7,520 | 20,075 | 794 | 28,389 | R +44.6 |
| Columbia County | 9,883 | 16,556 | 1,718 | 28,157 | R +23.9 |
| Lincoln County | 15,644 | 10,782 | 958 | 27,384 | D +17.7 |
| Clatsop County | 10,816 | 9,072 | 1,269 | 21,157 | D +8.1 |
| Tillamook County | 6,576 | 7,581 | 777 | 14,934 | R +6.9 |
| Crook County | 2,954 | 11,093 | 479 | 14,526 | R +56.2 |
| Union County | 3,131 | 9,650 | 423 | 13,204 | R +49.6 |
| Curry County | 4,869 | 7,762 | 418 | 13,049 | R +22.3 |
| Wasco County | 5,124 | 6,437 | 457 | 12,018 | R +11.0 |
| Hood River County | 7,279 | 4,062 | 648 | 11,989 | D +26.7 |
| Jefferson County | 2,812 | 7,476 | 440 | 10,728 | R +43.7 |
| Malheur County | 2,146 | 7,982 | 259 | 10,387 | R +56.4 |
| Baker County | 1,705 | 6,947 | 295 | 8,947 | R +58.8 |
| Wallowa County | 1,322 | 3,143 | 110 | 4,575 | R +40.2 |
| Morrow County | 853 | 3,303 | 164 | 4,320 | R +56.9 |
| Grant County | 651 | 3,369 | 133 | 4,153 | R +65.5 |
| Lake County | 491 | 3,474 | 106 | 4,071 | R +73.3 |
| Harney County | 568 | 3,260 | 118 | 3,946 | R +68.3 |
| Sherman County | 154 | 850 | 34 | 1,038 | R +66.2 |
| Gilliam County | 208 | 762 | 61 | 1,031 | R +53.6 |
| Wheeler County | 164 | 622 | 34 | 820 | R +55.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.