Sarah Huckabee Sanders is all but certain to win Arkansas's governorship.
Fredrick Love vs Sarah Huckabee Sanders. The model has Sanders ahead by 17.2 points, winning 99 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
984,414 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders R | 561,689 | 57.1% |
| Fredrick Love D | 392,503 | 39.9% |
| Colt Shelby L | 30,222 | 3.1% |
| Total | 984,414 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +9.1 and R +25.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +19.7 | |
| Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College | 709 LV | 2d | R +19.032 to 51 |
| J.L. Partners (R) | 803 LV | 58d | R +2.4 |
| Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College | 1,217 LV | 64d | R +5.040 to 45 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 115,503 ballots cast so far in Arkansas, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
4 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Love | Sanders |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 35.3 | 61.6 |
| Women | 53% | 43.0 | 53.9 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 41.5 | 55.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 20% | 39.8 | 57.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 31% | 38.1 | 58.8 |
| 65+ | 36% | 39.4 | 57.5 |
| RaceWhite | 77% | 29.9 | 67.0 |
| Black | 14% | 79.8 | 17.8 |
| Latino | 4% | 51.5 | 45.5 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 60.8 | 35.4 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 24.8 | 72.1 |
| White women | 41% | 34.3 | 62.5 |
| Black men | 7% | 75.9 | 21.6 |
| Black women | 7% | 83.4 | 14.3 |
| Latino men | 2% | 50.3 | 46.5 |
| Latino women | 2% | 52.5 | 44.6 |
| All other races | 6% | 60.8 | 35.4 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
75 counties| County | Love | Sanders | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 392,493 | 561,768 | 30,153 | 984,414 | R +17.2 |
| Pulaski County | 91,006 | 41,561 | 2,982 | 135,549 | D +36.6 |
| Benton County | 37,710 | 58,381 | 3,279 | 99,370 | R +20.8 |
| Washington County | 40,477 | 35,543 | 2,595 | 78,615 | D +6.3 |
| Saline County | 16,474 | 28,692 | 1,397 | 46,563 | R +26.4 |
| Faulkner County | 17,492 | 25,529 | 1,515 | 44,536 | R +18.1 |
| Sebastian County | 12,702 | 23,412 | 1,233 | 37,347 | R +28.7 |
| Garland County | 12,607 | 21,464 | 1,127 | 35,198 | R +25.3 |
| Craighead County | 11,389 | 18,645 | 1,252 | 31,286 | R +23.3 |
| White County | 6,750 | 17,733 | 836 | 25,319 | R +43.4 |
| Lonoke County | 6,941 | 16,947 | 816 | 24,704 | R +40.5 |
| Pope County | 5,452 | 13,576 | 690 | 19,718 | R +41.1 |
| Jefferson County | 12,784 | 6,380 | 331 | 19,495 | D +33.0 |
| Crawford County | 5,016 | 13,747 | 680 | 19,443 | R +44.9 |
| Baxter County | 4,117 | 12,040 | 639 | 16,796 | R +47.2 |
| Boone County | 3,008 | 10,208 | 550 | 13,766 | R +52.3 |
| Greene County | 3,297 | 9,217 | 562 | 13,076 | R +45.2 |
| Miller County | 3,703 | 8,864 | 282 | 12,849 | R +40.3 |
| Union County | 4,861 | 7,498 | 278 | 12,637 | R +20.9 |
| Crittenden County | 7,225 | 4,777 | 321 | 12,323 | D +19.7 |
| Independence County | 2,893 | 8,236 | 439 | 11,568 | R +46.2 |
| Hot Spring County | 3,179 | 7,052 | 328 | 10,559 | R +36.7 |
| Cleburne County | 2,211 | 7,959 | 337 | 10,507 | R +54.8 |
| Carroll County | 3,469 | 5,666 | 312 | 9,447 | R +23.1 |
| Mississippi County | 3,916 | 5,082 | 356 | 9,354 | R +12.8 |
| Johnson County | 2,195 | 5,051 | 271 | 7,517 | R +38.1 |
| Ouachita County | 3,327 | 3,940 | 141 | 7,408 | R +8.5 |
| Conway County | 2,509 | 4,484 | 186 | 7,179 | R +27.6 |
| Polk County | 1,412 | 5,381 | 283 | 7,076 | R +56.0 |
| Logan County | 1,583 | 4,997 | 238 | 6,818 | R +50.0 |
| Columbia County | 2,690 | 3,943 | 136 | 6,769 | R +18.6 |
| Grant County | 1,433 | 5,128 | 196 | 6,757 | R +54.6 |
| Clark County | 3,094 | 3,502 | 141 | 6,737 | R +6.3 |
| Van Buren County | 1,603 | 4,577 | 224 | 6,404 | R +46.5 |
| Marion County | 1,532 | 4,581 | 255 | 6,368 | R +47.9 |
| Sharp County | 1,430 | 4,524 | 274 | 6,228 | R +49.6 |
| Madison County | 1,512 | 4,451 | 185 | 6,148 | R +47.6 |
| Poinsett County | 1,533 | 4,248 | 229 | 6,010 | R +45.1 |
| Ashley County | 1,767 | 3,925 | 116 | 5,808 | R +37.2 |
| Franklin County | 1,483 | 4,089 | 179 | 5,751 | R +45.2 |
| Randolph County | 1,336 | 4,021 | 270 | 5,627 | R +47.5 |
| Drew County | 2,111 | 3,347 | 123 | 5,581 | R +22.2 |
| St. Francis County | 3,274 | 2,171 | 134 | 5,579 | D +19.6 |
| Yell County | 1,376 | 4,007 | 195 | 5,578 | R +47.0 |
| Cross County | 1,613 | 3,590 | 161 | 5,364 | R +36.8 |
| Hempstead County | 1,893 | 3,227 | 110 | 5,230 | R +25.5 |
| Stone County | 1,225 | 3,728 | 201 | 5,154 | R +48.5 |
| Izard County | 1,140 | 3,609 | 193 | 4,942 | R +49.8 |
| Lawrence County | 1,236 | 3,466 | 196 | 4,898 | R +45.4 |
| Arkansas County | 1,735 | 2,950 | 96 | 4,781 | R +25.6 |
| Phillips County | 2,983 | 1,474 | 105 | 4,562 | D +33.1 |
| Jackson County | 1,361 | 2,869 | 127 | 4,357 | R +34.3 |
| Clay County | 1,097 | 3,022 | 154 | 4,273 | R +45.0 |
| Fulton County | 1,028 | 3,027 | 155 | 4,210 | R +47.1 |
| Little River County | 1,132 | 2,867 | 115 | 4,114 | R +42.2 |
| Sevier County | 981 | 2,861 | 114 | 3,956 | R +47.1 |
| Perry County | 1,099 | 2,638 | 135 | 3,872 | R +39.6 |
| Howard County | 1,265 | 2,474 | 84 | 3,823 | R +31.7 |
| Pike County | 772 | 2,932 | 91 | 3,795 | R +56.7 |
| Chicot County | 1,999 | 1,237 | 49 | 3,285 | D +23.1 |
| Searcy County | 622 | 2,515 | 138 | 3,275 | R +57.4 |
| Montgomery County | 758 | 2,318 | 106 | 3,182 | R +49.0 |
| Desha County | 1,812 | 1,298 | 61 | 3,171 | D +16.2 |
| Lincoln County | 988 | 2,109 | 60 | 3,157 | R +35.2 |
| Newton County | 745 | 2,226 | 170 | 3,141 | R +46.9 |
| Scott County | 543 | 2,339 | 127 | 3,009 | R +59.3 |
| Cleveland County | 608 | 2,241 | 64 | 2,913 | R +55.8 |
| Bradley County | 1,018 | 1,732 | 59 | 2,809 | R +25.4 |
| Prairie County | 620 | 2,109 | 65 | 2,794 | R +52.9 |
| Nevada County | 966 | 1,530 | 43 | 2,539 | R +22.0 |
| Lee County | 1,371 | 891 | 42 | 2,304 | D +21.0 |
| Monroe County | 1,086 | 1,052 | 44 | 2,182 | D +1.5 |
| Dallas County | 840 | 1,231 | 36 | 2,107 | R +18.6 |
| Woodruff County | 847 | 1,160 | 66 | 2,073 | R +15.2 |
| Lafayette County | 825 | 1,176 | 38 | 2,039 | R +17.1 |
| Calhoun County | 406 | 1,294 | 35 | 1,735 | R +50.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.