2026 state legislative forecast

Massachusetts Senate forecast

Democrats win control of the Massachusetts Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 40 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 40On the ballot 40Massachusetts House All chambers

Chance of control

>99%D<1%R

Democratic seats, 80% range

34 to 36

Median 35 · 21 for a majority

Favored to flip

1to D0to R

After 2024: 35 D, 5 R

Environment

D +9.7

Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Massachusetts Senate map

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 35 D to 5 R

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations

Every Senate district

District	Last winner	2026 nominees	2024 lean	Forecast	Dem win	Projected D votes	Projected R votes	Total	Rating
WORCESTER & HAMPSHIRE	Peter J Durant 2024	Shannon M. Teabo vs Peter J. Durant	D +0.3	D +1.4	59%	36,865	35,840	73,813	Toss up
1ST BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH	Michael J Rodrigues 2024	Michael J. Rodrigues vs Gabriel Boomer Amaral	R +7.1	D +2.7	65%	31,892	30,227	63,064	Lean D

Projected Massachusetts Senate vote

40 seats on the ballot

Party	Votes	Share
Democrats	2,199,906	80.1%
Republicans	537,440	19.6%
Independents and others	7,583	0.3%
Total	2,744,929	100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built

Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.