2026 forecast · Kansas Attorney General
Chris Mann and Kris Kobach are in a toss up for Kansas's attorney general.
Chris Mann vs Kris Kobach, with Kris Kobach running again. The model has Kobach ahead by 0.1 points, with a 50 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel R +0.1Polls R +1.9Updated October 22, 2026
Chris Mann
Democrat
49.5%
567,772 projected votes
Kris Kobach
Republican
49.5%
568,569 projected votes
50%Kobach
50%Mann
Kobach slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Kobach wins about 50 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Mann +153,493 net votes from 7 countiesStatewide R +0.1, a 800 vote marginKobach +154,293 net votes from 98 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,147,820 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kris Kobach R | 568,569 | 49.5% |
| Chris Mann D | 567,772 | 49.5% |
| Other candidates | 11,478 | 1.0% |
| Total | 1,147,820 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
105 counties| County | Mann | Kobach | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 567,771 | 568,571 | 11,478 | 1,147,820 | R +0.1 |
| Johnson County | 185,060 | 103,307 | 2,913 | 291,280 | D +28.1 |
| Sedgwick County | 91,521 | 90,005 | 1,833 | 183,359 | D +0.8 |
| Shawnee County | 42,031 | 29,202 | 720 | 71,953 | D +17.8 |
| Douglas County | 41,178 | 11,112 | 528 | 52,818 | D +56.9 |
| Wyandotte County | 32,667 | 10,708 | 438 | 43,813 | D +50.1 |
| Leavenworth County | 14,558 | 16,573 | 315 | 31,446 | R +6.4 |
| Butler County | 9,554 | 17,498 | 274 | 27,326 | R +29.1 |
| Reno County | 8,882 | 14,267 | 233 | 23,382 | R +23.0 |
| Riley County | 13,960 | 9,120 | 233 | 23,313 | D +20.8 |
| Saline County | 8,215 | 11,821 | 202 | 20,238 | R +17.8 |
| Miami County | 5,641 | 9,576 | 153 | 15,370 | R +25.6 |
| Crawford County | 6,384 | 7,613 | 141 | 14,138 | R +8.7 |
| Harvey County | 6,351 | 7,614 | 141 | 14,106 | R +8.9 |
| McPherson County | 4,123 | 8,191 | 125 | 12,439 | R +32.7 |
| Cowley County | 4,345 | 7,664 | 121 | 12,130 | R +27.4 |
| Ellis County | 4,466 | 7,370 | 120 | 11,956 | R +24.3 |
| Pottawatomie County | 3,593 | 7,768 | 115 | 11,476 | R +36.4 |
| Lyon County | 5,926 | 5,396 | 115 | 11,437 | D +4.6 |
| Montgomery County | 3,075 | 7,930 | 111 | 11,116 | R +43.7 |
| Franklin County | 4,145 | 6,478 | 107 | 10,730 | R +21.8 |
| Barton County | 2,528 | 6,623 | 93 | 9,244 | R +44.3 |
| Finney County | 3,589 | 5,402 | 91 | 9,082 | R +20.0 |
| Sumner County | 2,823 | 6,068 | 89 | 8,980 | R +36.1 |
| Jefferson County | 3,360 | 4,903 | 83 | 8,346 | R +18.5 |
| Geary County | 4,017 | 4,213 | 84 | 8,314 | R +2.4 |
| Dickinson County | 2,064 | 5,673 | 77 | 7,814 | R +46.2 |
| Cherokee County | 2,136 | 5,230 | 75 | 7,441 | R +41.6 |
| Ford County | 2,787 | 4,566 | 75 | 7,428 | R +24.0 |
| Labette County | 2,550 | 4,311 | 69 | 6,930 | R +25.4 |
| Osage County | 2,349 | 4,408 | 69 | 6,826 | R +30.2 |
| Atchison County | 2,307 | 3,879 | 62 | 6,248 | R +25.1 |
| Neosho County | 1,856 | 3,959 | 59 | 5,874 | R +35.8 |
| Bourbon County | 1,481 | 4,085 | 56 | 5,622 | R +46.3 |
| Jackson County | 2,041 | 3,456 | 55 | 5,552 | R +25.5 |
| Marion County | 1,505 | 3,651 | 52 | 5,208 | R +41.2 |
| Nemaha County | 1,072 | 3,770 | 50 | 4,892 | R +55.1 |
| Allen County | 1,525 | 3,185 | 48 | 4,758 | R +34.9 |
| Marshall County | 1,328 | 2,897 | 43 | 4,268 | R +36.8 |
| Linn County | 985 | 3,219 | 42 | 4,246 | R +52.6 |
| Seward County | 1,518 | 2,415 | 40 | 3,973 | R +22.6 |
| Coffey County | 995 | 2,731 | 37 | 3,763 | R +46.1 |
| Brown County | 1,207 | 2,446 | 37 | 3,690 | R +33.6 |
| Clay County | 973 | 2,584 | 37 | 3,594 | R +44.8 |
| Cloud County | 925 | 2,600 | 35 | 3,560 | R +47.0 |
| Pratt County | 1,031 | 2,484 | 35 | 3,550 | R +40.9 |
| Rice County | 942 | 2,503 | 35 | 3,480 | R +44.9 |
| Wabaunsee County | 1,051 | 2,340 | 34 | 3,425 | R +37.6 |
| Wilson County | 796 | 2,558 | 34 | 3,388 | R +52.0 |
| Kingman County | 921 | 2,421 | 34 | 3,376 | R +44.4 |
| Anderson County | 802 | 2,400 | 33 | 3,235 | R +49.4 |
| Thomas County | 710 | 2,493 | 32 | 3,235 | R +55.1 |
| Doniphan County | 651 | 2,381 | 30 | 3,062 | R +56.5 |
| Russell County | 714 | 2,186 | 30 | 2,930 | R +50.2 |
| Mitchell County | 598 | 2,050 | 26 | 2,674 | R +54.3 |
| Ottawa County | 573 | 2,018 | 26 | 2,617 | R +55.2 |
| Greenwood County | 659 | 1,858 | 25 | 2,542 | R +47.2 |
| Ellsworth County | 759 | 1,708 | 25 | 2,492 | R +38.0 |
| Morris County | 854 | 1,555 | 24 | 2,433 | R +28.8 |
| Washington County | 448 | 1,953 | 23 | 2,424 | R +62.1 |
| Pawnee County | 737 | 1,653 | 24 | 2,414 | R +38.0 |
| Phillips County | 358 | 1,990 | 24 | 2,372 | R +68.8 |
| Sherman County | 440 | 1,836 | 23 | 2,299 | R +60.7 |
| Rooks County | 396 | 1,833 | 23 | 2,252 | R +63.8 |
| Harper County | 486 | 1,697 | 23 | 2,206 | R +54.9 |
| Republic County | 441 | 1,666 | 21 | 2,128 | R +57.6 |
| Norton County | 407 | 1,629 | 20 | 2,056 | R +59.4 |
| Gray County | 364 | 1,557 | 19 | 1,940 | R +61.4 |
| Scott County | 307 | 1,596 | 19 | 1,922 | R +67.1 |
| Grant County | 452 | 1,445 | 19 | 1,916 | R +51.8 |
| Barber County | 375 | 1,511 | 19 | 1,905 | R +59.6 |
| Smith County | 345 | 1,402 | 17 | 1,764 | R +59.9 |
| Stafford County | 401 | 1,270 | 17 | 1,688 | R +51.5 |
| Stevens County | 244 | 1,355 | 16 | 1,615 | R +68.8 |
| Osborne County | 333 | 1,209 | 16 | 1,558 | R +56.2 |
| Meade County | 263 | 1,204 | 15 | 1,482 | R +63.5 |
| Rush County | 321 | 1,073 | 14 | 1,408 | R +53.4 |
| Trego County | 303 | 1,065 | 14 | 1,382 | R +55.1 |
| Jewell County | 223 | 1,116 | 14 | 1,353 | R +66.0 |
| Chautauqua County | 231 | 1,104 | 13 | 1,348 | R +64.7 |
| Lincoln County | 288 | 1,020 | 13 | 1,321 | R +55.4 |
| Woodson County | 346 | 956 | 14 | 1,316 | R +46.3 |
| Decatur County | 250 | 993 | 13 | 1,256 | R +59.1 |
| Chase County | 407 | 833 | 12 | 1,252 | R +34.0 |
| Gove County | 198 | 1,037 | 13 | 1,248 | R +67.3 |
| Ness County | 162 | 1,066 | 12 | 1,240 | R +72.9 |
| Rawlins County | 226 | 985 | 13 | 1,224 | R +62.0 |
| Logan County | 213 | 986 | 12 | 1,211 | R +63.9 |
| Sheridan County | 163 | 1,023 | 12 | 1,198 | R +71.8 |
| Cheyenne County | 213 | 940 | 12 | 1,165 | R +62.4 |
| Elk County | 240 | 907 | 12 | 1,159 | R +57.6 |
| Edwards County | 271 | 851 | 11 | 1,133 | R +51.2 |
| Kearny County | 220 | 900 | 11 | 1,131 | R +60.1 |
| Graham County | 250 | 859 | 11 | 1,120 | R +54.4 |
| Haskell County | 235 | 865 | 12 | 1,112 | R +56.7 |
| Kiowa County | 184 | 811 | 11 | 1,006 | R +62.4 |
| Morton County | 159 | 750 | 9 | 918 | R +64.3 |
| Clark County | 180 | 714 | 10 | 904 | R +59.0 |
| Hodgeman County | 171 | 663 | 8 | 842 | R +58.5 |
| Comanche County | 158 | 616 | 8 | 782 | R +58.5 |
| Wichita County | 126 | 632 | 7 | 765 | R +66.2 |
| Lane County | 131 | 582 | 7 | 720 | R +62.7 |
| Wallace County | 64 | 619 | 7 | 690 | R +80.4 |
| Hamilton County | 160 | 510 | 6 | 676 | R +51.8 |
| Stanton County | 134 | 445 | 5 | 584 | R +53.3 |
| Greeley County | 90 | 402 | 5 | 497 | R +62.6 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +8.4 and R +8.6. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +2.7 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +8.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +3.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +0.2 |
| With polls, 13% weight | R +0.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +8.4 and R +8.6.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Mann | Kobach | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D) for Democratic Attorneys General Association (D) | 2026-10-01 | 47 | 46 | D +1.0 |