Ed Markey is all but certain to win Massachusetts's Senate seat.
Ed Markey vs John Deaton. The model has Markey ahead by 34.4 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
2,859,303 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Ed Markey D | 1,879,154 | 65.7% |
| John Deaton R | 895,799 | 31.3% |
| Joe Tache PSL | 42,318 | 1.5% |
| Morgan Dawicki I | 42,318 | 1.5% |
| Total | 2,859,303 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +41.2 and D +27.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +32.1 | |
| Suffolk University/Boston Globe | 500 LV | 0d | D +28.260 to 31.8 |
| UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov | 800 RV | 3d | D +27.056 to 29 |
| MassINC Polling Group for CommonWealth Beacon | 800 LV | 23d | D +26.054 to 28 |
| University of New Hampshire | 564 LV | 24d | D +23.053 to 30 |
| University of New Hampshire | 881 LV | 52d | D +19.049 to 30 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 800 RV | 64d | D +21.051 to 30 |
| University of New Hampshire | 623 LV | 114d | D +16.050 to 34 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 125d | D +25.055 to 30 |
| University of New Hampshire | 603 LV | 178d | D +23.055 to 32 |
| University of New Hampshire | 620 LV | 241d | D +29.056 to 27 |
| Cygnal (R) | 800 LV | 263d | D +24.054 to 30 |
| Suffolk University | 500 RV | 326d | D +23.054 to 31 |
| SurveyUSA | 775 RV | 590d | D +19.045 to 26 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Massachusetts has no early vote reported yet, so its turnout correction comes from similar states that do and from its primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
53 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Seth MoultonU.S. Representative, MA-06, defeated primary rivalsource
- Elizabeth WarrenU.S. Senator from Massachusettssource
- Bernie SandersU.S. Senator from Vermontsource
- Andrea CampbellMassachusetts Attorney Generalsource
- Katherine ClarkHouse Minority Whip, MA-05source
- Richard NealU.S. Representative, MA-01source
- Jim McGovernU.S. Representative, MA-02source
- Ayanna PressleyU.S. Representative, MA-07source
- Massachusetts Republican Partystate partysource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Markey | Deaton |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 60.3 | 36.7 |
| Women | 54% | 69.1 | 27.9 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 67.5 | 29.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 62.7 | 34.4 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 63.7 | 33.4 |
| 65+ | 31% | 67.2 | 29.8 |
| RaceWhite | 77% | 60.3 | 36.8 |
| Black | 6% | 90.2 | 7.1 |
| Latino | 8% | 74.7 | 22.2 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 82.0 | 14.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 35% | 53.8 | 43.3 |
| White women | 43% | 65.5 | 31.5 |
| Black men | 3% | 88.7 | 8.5 |
| Black women | 3% | 91.5 | 5.8 |
| Latino men | 4% | 72.7 | 24.2 |
| Latino women | 4% | 76.6 | 20.3 |
| All other races | 9% | 82.0 | 14.8 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
14 counties| County | Markey | Deaton | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,879,939 | 894,546 | 84,818 | 2,859,303 | D +34.5 |
| Middlesex County | 497,448 | 166,247 | 17,717 | 681,412 | D +49.0 |
| Worcester County | 191,220 | 134,351 | 13,566 | 339,137 | D +17.1 |
| Essex County | 203,937 | 111,810 | 9,431 | 325,178 | D +28.6 |
| Norfolk County | 210,262 | 100,719 | 7,647 | 318,628 | D +34.7 |
| Suffolk County | 217,927 | 38,301 | 6,032 | 262,260 | D +68.6 |
| Plymouth County | 136,866 | 97,436 | 6,254 | 240,556 | D +16.6 |
| Bristol County | 119,135 | 92,990 | 6,786 | 218,911 | D +12.0 |
| Hampden County | 94,148 | 65,802 | 8,064 | 168,014 | D +17.1 |
| Barnstable County | 76,820 | 45,164 | 2,490 | 124,474 | D +25.7 |
| Hampshire County | 53,985 | 16,733 | 2,870 | 73,588 | D +50.8 |
| Berkshire County | 41,223 | 13,472 | 1,808 | 56,503 | D +49.5 |
| Franklin County | 25,011 | 7,964 | 1,772 | 34,747 | D +49.3 |
| Dukes County | 7,968 | 1,946 | 244 | 10,158 | D +59.6 |
| Nantucket County | 3,989 | 1,611 | 137 | 5,737 | D +41.7 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.