2026 forecast · Texas Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals, Place 4
Kevin Yeary is favored to win Texas's judge, court of criminal appeals, place 4 race.
Audra Riley vs Kevin Yeary, with Kevin Yeary running again. The model has Yeary ahead by 3.9 points, with a 77 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +3.9Polls R +12.2Updated October 22, 2026
Audra Riley
Democrat
46.6%
4,657,738 projected votes
Kevin Yeary
Republican
50.4%
5,043,775 projected votes
77%Yeary
23%Riley
Yeary favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Yeary wins about 77 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Riley +1,272,786 net votes from 23 countiesStatewide R +3.9, a 386,022 vote marginYeary +1,658,808 net votes from 231 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Yeary R | 5,043,775 | 50.4% |
| Audra Riley D | 4,657,738 | 46.6% |
| Other candidates | 297,410 | 3.0% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Riley | Yeary | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,657,749 | 5,043,771 | 297,396 | 9,998,916 | R +3.9 |
| Harris County | 801,298 | 541,880 | 41,176 | 1,384,354 | D +18.7 |
| Dallas County | 523,659 | 231,342 | 23,145 | 778,146 | D +37.6 |
| Tarrant County | 361,947 | 336,998 | 21,427 | 720,372 | D +3.5 |
| Bexar County | 413,499 | 251,126 | 20,374 | 684,999 | D +23.7 |
| Travis County | 417,857 | 116,710 | 16,388 | 550,955 | D +54.7 |
| Collin County | 207,977 | 217,187 | 13,034 | 438,198 | R +2.1 |
| Denton County | 171,304 | 198,121 | 11,325 | 380,750 | R +7.0 |
| Fort Bend County | 165,983 | 131,903 | 9,132 | 307,018 | D +11.1 |
| Williamson County | 138,270 | 120,091 | 7,920 | 266,281 | D +6.8 |
| Montgomery County | 67,023 | 178,392 | 7,523 | 252,938 | R +44.0 |
| El Paso County | 153,464 | 71,851 | 6,907 | 232,222 | D +35.1 |
| Hidalgo County | 115,046 | 74,859 | 5,821 | 195,726 | D +20.5 |
| Brazoria County | 53,142 | 78,537 | 4,037 | 135,716 | R +18.7 |
| Galveston County | 50,179 | 80,698 | 4,013 | 134,890 | R +22.6 |
| Bell County | 49,798 | 61,481 | 3,411 | 114,690 | R +10.2 |
| Nueces County | 53,437 | 55,790 | 3,348 | 112,575 | R +2.1 |
| Hays County | 61,848 | 44,563 | 3,262 | 109,673 | D +15.8 |
| Lubbock County | 33,815 | 71,650 | 3,233 | 108,698 | R +34.8 |
| Cameron County | 58,769 | 44,108 | 3,154 | 106,031 | D +13.8 |
| Smith County | 23,773 | 63,606 | 2,678 | 90,057 | R +44.2 |
| McLennan County | 31,306 | 54,785 | 2,639 | 88,730 | R +26.5 |
| Comal County | 23,098 | 60,739 | 2,570 | 86,407 | R +43.6 |
| Ellis County | 25,195 | 53,526 | 2,413 | 81,134 | R +34.9 |
| Brazos County | 33,017 | 45,382 | 2,403 | 80,802 | R +15.3 |
| Jefferson County | 36,338 | 38,349 | 2,289 | 76,976 | R +2.6 |
| Parker County | 11,568 | 60,121 | 2,198 | 73,887 | R +65.7 |
| Guadalupe County | 24,817 | 43,353 | 2,090 | 70,260 | R +26.4 |
| Johnson County | 15,655 | 50,434 | 2,027 | 68,116 | R +51.1 |
| Webb County | 37,198 | 21,182 | 1,790 | 60,170 | D +26.6 |
| Randall County | 11,006 | 44,644 | 1,706 | 57,356 | R +58.6 |
| Kaufman County | 17,768 | 36,071 | 1,651 | 55,490 | R +33.0 |
| Grayson County | 11,656 | 41,111 | 1,617 | 54,384 | R +54.2 |
| Rockwall County | 14,290 | 35,312 | 1,520 | 51,122 | R +41.1 |
| Midland County | 9,723 | 39,647 | 1,513 | 50,883 | R +58.8 |
| Taylor County | 12,020 | 35,531 | 1,459 | 49,010 | R +48.0 |
| Gregg County | 11,380 | 28,099 | 1,210 | 40,689 | R +41.1 |
| Wichita County | 11,915 | 27,133 | 1,197 | 40,245 | R +37.8 |
| Tom Green County | 10,485 | 28,255 | 1,187 | 39,927 | R +44.5 |
| Hunt County | 7,696 | 29,592 | 1,143 | 38,431 | R +57.0 |
| Ector County | 8,612 | 26,341 | 1,071 | 36,024 | R +49.2 |
| Bastrop County | 14,979 | 19,201 | 1,048 | 35,228 | R +12.0 |
| Henderson County | 5,568 | 26,841 | 993 | 33,402 | R +63.7 |
| Bowie County | 8,479 | 22,850 | 961 | 32,290 | R +44.5 |
| Hood County | 5,261 | 24,921 | 925 | 31,107 | R +63.2 |
| Victoria County | 8,637 | 21,298 | 918 | 30,853 | R +41.0 |
| Orange County | 4,743 | 25,050 | 913 | 30,706 | R +66.1 |
| Wise County | 4,069 | 25,675 | 912 | 30,656 | R +70.5 |
| Angelina County | 7,086 | 21,794 | 886 | 29,766 | R +49.4 |
| Potter County | 8,574 | 20,075 | 879 | 29,528 | R +39.0 |
| Liberty County | 4,561 | 20,991 | 783 | 26,335 | R +62.4 |
| Harrison County | 6,016 | 18,858 | 762 | 25,636 | R +50.1 |
| Kerr County | 5,449 | 18,904 | 746 | 25,099 | R +53.6 |
| Kendall County | 4,992 | 19,081 | 738 | 24,811 | R +56.8 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,794 | 20,759 | 722 | 24,275 | R +74.0 |
| Walker County | 7,291 | 16,175 | 720 | 24,186 | R +36.7 |
| Burnet County | 5,137 | 18,062 | 711 | 23,910 | R +54.1 |
| Hardin County | 2,620 | 20,161 | 699 | 23,480 | R +74.7 |
| Nacogdoches County | 6,908 | 15,170 | 677 | 22,755 | R +36.3 |
| Coryell County | 6,825 | 15,193 | 676 | 22,694 | R +36.9 |
| Wilson County | 5,148 | 16,739 | 671 | 22,558 | R +51.4 |
| San Patricio County | 7,460 | 14,186 | 663 | 22,309 | R +30.1 |
| Waller County | 7,502 | 13,433 | 641 | 21,576 | R +27.5 |
| Wood County | 2,816 | 17,640 | 627 | 21,083 | R +70.3 |
| Medina County | 5,699 | 14,496 | 620 | 20,815 | R +42.3 |
| Polk County | 4,047 | 15,738 | 607 | 20,392 | R +57.3 |
| Chambers County | 3,056 | 15,770 | 578 | 19,404 | R +65.5 |
| Rusk County | 3,568 | 14,734 | 561 | 18,863 | R +59.2 |
| Lamar County | 3,462 | 14,571 | 553 | 18,586 | R +59.8 |
| Anderson County | 3,360 | 14,307 | 541 | 18,208 | R +60.1 |
| Cherokee County | 3,051 | 14,107 | 526 | 17,684 | R +62.5 |
| Cooke County | 2,548 | 14,414 | 520 | 17,482 | R +67.9 |
| Navarro County | 3,973 | 12,731 | 512 | 17,216 | R +50.9 |
| Upshur County | 2,304 | 14,013 | 499 | 16,816 | R +69.6 |
| Erath County | 2,517 | 13,089 | 478 | 16,084 | R +65.7 |
| Washington County | 3,263 | 12,175 | 473 | 15,911 | R +56.0 |
| Atascosa County | 4,677 | 10,676 | 471 | 15,824 | R +37.9 |
| Brown County | 1,754 | 12,598 | 440 | 14,792 | R +73.3 |
| Caldwell County | 6,612 | 7,478 | 432 | 14,522 | R +6.0 |
| Gillespie County | 2,655 | 11,393 | 431 | 14,479 | R +60.4 |
| Wharton County | 3,444 | 10,566 | 430 | 14,440 | R +49.3 |
| Starr County | 8,348 | 5,579 | 427 | 14,354 | D +19.3 |
| Hopkins County | 2,600 | 11,253 | 425 | 14,278 | R +60.6 |
| Fannin County | 2,057 | 11,539 | 416 | 14,012 | R +67.7 |
| Hill County | 2,339 | 11,241 | 416 | 13,996 | R +63.6 |
| Jasper County | 2,031 | 10,907 | 396 | 13,334 | R +66.6 |
| Maverick County | 7,244 | 5,550 | 392 | 13,186 | D +12.8 |
| Austin County | 2,196 | 10,356 | 385 | 12,937 | R +63.1 |
| Val Verde County | 5,466 | 6,950 | 380 | 12,796 | R +11.6 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,617 | 6,103 | 360 | 12,080 | R +4.0 |
| Llano County | 2,234 | 9,467 | 359 | 12,060 | R +60.0 |
| Cass County | 1,910 | 9,636 | 354 | 11,900 | R +64.9 |
| Matagorda County | 2,878 | 8,550 | 350 | 11,778 | R +48.2 |
| Grimes County | 2,055 | 9,283 | 348 | 11,686 | R +61.9 |
| Fayette County | 2,057 | 9,251 | 346 | 11,654 | R +61.7 |
| Bandera County | 2,005 | 9,233 | 344 | 11,582 | R +62.4 |
| Aransas County | 2,316 | 8,707 | 338 | 11,361 | R +56.3 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,617 | 9,352 | 336 | 11,305 | R +68.4 |
| San Jacinto County | 1,912 | 8,867 | 331 | 11,110 | R +62.6 |
| Milam County | 2,084 | 7,369 | 289 | 9,742 | R +54.3 |
| Lampasas County | 1,802 | 7,528 | 286 | 9,616 | R +59.5 |
| Panola County | 1,488 | 7,839 | 286 | 9,613 | R +66.1 |
| Kleberg County | 4,510 | 4,766 | 284 | 9,560 | R +2.7 |
| Montague County | 890 | 8,045 | 274 | 9,209 | R +77.7 |
| Lavaca County | 1,002 | 7,847 | 271 | 9,120 | R +75.0 |
| Titus County | 1,900 | 6,780 | 266 | 8,946 | R +54.6 |
| Uvalde County | 3,292 | 5,289 | 263 | 8,844 | R +22.6 |
| Howard County | 1,696 | 6,740 | 258 | 8,694 | R +58.0 |
| Bee County | 2,776 | 5,600 | 257 | 8,633 | R +32.7 |
| Colorado County | 1,720 | 6,633 | 256 | 8,609 | R +57.1 |
| Hale County | 1,683 | 6,526 | 252 | 8,461 | R +57.3 |
| Shelby County | 1,405 | 6,794 | 251 | 8,450 | R +63.8 |
| Houston County | 1,733 | 6,400 | 249 | 8,382 | R +55.7 |
| Tyler County | 1,025 | 7,104 | 250 | 8,379 | R +72.5 |
| Bosque County | 1,321 | 6,748 | 247 | 8,316 | R +65.3 |
| Limestone County | 1,724 | 6,070 | 239 | 8,033 | R +54.1 |
| Burleson County | 1,267 | 6,339 | 232 | 7,838 | R +64.7 |
| Freestone County | 1,181 | 6,371 | 231 | 7,783 | R +66.7 |
| Leon County | 718 | 6,695 | 227 | 7,640 | R +78.2 |
| Lee County | 1,325 | 5,705 | 216 | 7,246 | R +60.4 |
| Eastland County | 775 | 6,231 | 216 | 7,222 | R +75.5 |
| Young County | 778 | 6,211 | 215 | 7,204 | R +75.4 |
| Hutchinson County | 695 | 6,289 | 214 | 7,198 | R +77.7 |
| Blanco County | 1,612 | 5,279 | 211 | 7,102 | R +51.6 |
| DeWitt County | 1,145 | 5,722 | 211 | 7,078 | R +64.7 |
| Robertson County | 1,669 | 5,050 | 206 | 6,925 | R +48.8 |
| Calhoun County | 1,667 | 4,993 | 204 | 6,864 | R +48.5 |
| Hockley County | 1,096 | 5,542 | 204 | 6,842 | R +65.0 |
| Gray County | 597 | 5,979 | 201 | 6,777 | R +79.4 |
| Gonzales County | 1,380 | 5,044 | 197 | 6,621 | R +55.3 |
| Jones County | 849 | 5,410 | 191 | 6,450 | R +70.7 |
| Trinity County | 1,001 | 5,080 | 187 | 6,268 | R +65.1 |
| Callahan County | 583 | 5,308 | 180 | 6,071 | R +77.8 |
| Falls County | 1,526 | 4,024 | 170 | 5,720 | R +43.7 |
| Rains County | 704 | 4,811 | 169 | 5,684 | R +72.3 |
| Comanche County | 683 | 4,734 | 166 | 5,583 | R +72.6 |
| Jackson County | 766 | 4,588 | 164 | 5,518 | R +69.3 |
| Willacy County | 3,026 | 2,160 | 159 | 5,345 | D +16.2 |
| Gaines County | 389 | 4,620 | 153 | 5,162 | R +82.0 |
| Scurry County | 613 | 4,333 | 151 | 5,097 | R +73.0 |
| Clay County | 494 | 4,407 | 150 | 5,051 | R +77.5 |
| Newton County | 845 | 4,035 | 150 | 5,030 | R +63.4 |
| Andrews County | 618 | 4,232 | 149 | 4,999 | R +72.3 |
| Red River County | 931 | 3,861 | 148 | 4,940 | R +59.3 |
| Sabine County | 481 | 4,209 | 144 | 4,834 | R +77.1 |
| Karnes County | 1,043 | 3,568 | 141 | 4,752 | R +53.1 |
| Frio County | 2,284 | 2,306 | 140 | 4,730 | R +0.5 |
| Madison County | 799 | 3,790 | 140 | 4,729 | R +63.3 |
| Morris County | 1,139 | 3,387 | 138 | 4,664 | R +48.2 |
| Nolan County | 877 | 3,626 | 138 | 4,641 | R +59.2 |
| Moore County | 720 | 3,751 | 138 | 4,609 | R +65.8 |
| Camp County | 1,006 | 3,427 | 135 | 4,568 | R +53.0 |
| Franklin County | 647 | 3,745 | 134 | 4,526 | R +68.5 |
| Live Oak County | 642 | 3,709 | 134 | 4,485 | R +68.4 |
| Somervell County | 681 | 3,662 | 133 | 4,476 | R +66.6 |
| Archer County | 388 | 3,789 | 129 | 4,306 | R +79.0 |
| Brewster County | 2,072 | 2,048 | 126 | 4,246 | D +0.6 |
| Pecos County | 1,250 | 2,791 | 123 | 4,164 | R +37.0 |
| Wilbarger County | 760 | 3,153 | 119 | 4,032 | R +59.3 |
| Zapata County | 2,119 | 1,784 | 119 | 4,022 | D +8.3 |
| Marion County | 943 | 2,954 | 120 | 4,017 | R +50.0 |
| Deaf Smith County | 913 | 2,924 | 117 | 3,954 | R +50.8 |
| Duval County | 2,251 | 1,570 | 117 | 3,938 | D +17.3 |
| Hamilton County | 529 | 3,200 | 115 | 3,844 | R +69.5 |
| Lamb County | 614 | 2,976 | 111 | 3,701 | R +63.8 |
| Runnels County | 373 | 3,178 | 109 | 3,660 | R +76.6 |
| Coleman County | 341 | 3,159 | 108 | 3,608 | R +78.1 |
| Goliad County | 703 | 2,719 | 104 | 3,526 | R +57.2 |
| Jack County | 269 | 3,144 | 105 | 3,518 | R +81.7 |
| Stephens County | 263 | 2,988 | 100 | 3,351 | R +81.3 |
| San Augustine County | 692 | 2,506 | 98 | 3,296 | R +55.0 |
| Dawson County | 609 | 2,516 | 95 | 3,220 | R +59.2 |
| Ward County | 563 | 2,506 | 93 | 3,162 | R +61.4 |
| Terry County | 526 | 2,523 | 93 | 3,142 | R +63.6 |
| Dimmit County | 1,960 | 1,071 | 93 | 3,124 | D +28.4 |
| Zavala County | 2,075 | 901 | 92 | 3,068 | D +38.3 |
| McCulloch County | 386 | 2,531 | 89 | 3,006 | R +71.3 |
| Reeves County | 1,245 | 1,671 | 89 | 3,005 | R +14.2 |
| Carson County | 235 | 2,371 | 80 | 2,686 | R +79.5 |
| Refugio County | 784 | 1,801 | 80 | 2,665 | R +38.2 |
| Ochiltree County | 215 | 2,289 | 76 | 2,580 | R +80.4 |
| Mitchell County | 309 | 2,043 | 72 | 2,424 | R +71.5 |
| San Saba County | 225 | 2,111 | 71 | 2,407 | R +78.4 |
| Brooks County | 1,498 | 784 | 70 | 2,352 | D +30.3 |
| Mills County | 215 | 2,028 | 69 | 2,312 | R +78.4 |
| Parmer County | 305 | 1,907 | 67 | 2,279 | R +70.3 |
| Delta County | 339 | 1,848 | 67 | 2,254 | R +66.9 |
| Mason County | 379 | 1,750 | 65 | 2,194 | R +62.5 |
| Childress County | 226 | 1,810 | 62 | 2,098 | R +75.5 |
| Kimble County | 221 | 1,810 | 62 | 2,093 | R +75.9 |
| Lynn County | 294 | 1,732 | 62 | 2,088 | R +68.9 |
| Swisher County | 387 | 1,626 | 61 | 2,074 | R +59.8 |
| Haskell County | 282 | 1,682 | 60 | 2,024 | R +69.2 |
| Yoakum County | 263 | 1,698 | 60 | 2,021 | R +71.0 |
| La Salle County | 939 | 1,006 | 60 | 2,005 | R +3.3 |
| Wheeler County | 142 | 1,747 | 57 | 1,946 | R +82.5 |
| Presidio County | 1,386 | 453 | 57 | 1,896 | D +49.2 |
| Castro County | 355 | 1,441 | 55 | 1,851 | R +58.6 |
| Hartley County | 151 | 1,623 | 54 | 1,828 | R +80.5 |
| Floyd County | 287 | 1,404 | 53 | 1,744 | R +64.1 |
| Hansford County | 121 | 1,571 | 52 | 1,744 | R +83.2 |
| Winkler County | 262 | 1,422 | 52 | 1,736 | R +66.8 |
| Martin County | 206 | 1,472 | 52 | 1,730 | R +73.3 |
| Bailey County | 305 | 1,320 | 49 | 1,674 | R +60.6 |
| Crosby County | 388 | 1,156 | 48 | 1,592 | R +48.3 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,003 | 521 | 46 | 1,570 | D +30.7 |
| Real County | 216 | 1,302 | 47 | 1,565 | R +69.4 |
| Fisher County | 269 | 1,241 | 46 | 1,556 | R +62.5 |
| Coke County | 145 | 1,363 | 46 | 1,554 | R +78.4 |
| Baylor County | 148 | 1,297 | 43 | 1,488 | R +77.2 |
| Garza County | 210 | 1,228 | 44 | 1,482 | R +68.7 |
| Shackelford County | 116 | 1,285 | 43 | 1,444 | R +81.0 |
| Hemphill County | 165 | 1,229 | 42 | 1,436 | R +74.1 |
| Donley County | 135 | 1,243 | 42 | 1,420 | R +78.0 |
| Dallam County | 142 | 1,196 | 41 | 1,379 | R +76.4 |
| Kinney County | 325 | 932 | 39 | 1,296 | R +46.8 |
| Crockett County | 297 | 915 | 38 | 1,250 | R +49.4 |
| Crane County | 171 | 1,029 | 37 | 1,237 | R +69.4 |
| Sutton County | 209 | 985 | 36 | 1,230 | R +63.1 |
| Hardeman County | 161 | 1,018 | 35 | 1,214 | R +70.6 |
| Knox County | 181 | 962 | 35 | 1,178 | R +66.4 |
| Upton County | 131 | 974 | 35 | 1,140 | R +74.0 |
| Concho County | 154 | 935 | 33 | 1,122 | R +69.6 |
| Lipscomb County | 94 | 954 | 32 | 1,080 | R +79.7 |
| Jeff Davis County | 425 | 596 | 31 | 1,052 | R +16.3 |
| Collingsworth County | 111 | 886 | 31 | 1,028 | R +75.4 |
| Hall County | 126 | 869 | 30 | 1,025 | R +72.5 |
| Schleicher County | 179 | 800 | 31 | 1,010 | R +61.5 |
| Armstrong County | 68 | 864 | 28 | 960 | R +82.9 |
| Hudspeth County | 294 | 622 | 28 | 944 | R +34.8 |
| Menard County | 137 | 708 | 27 | 872 | R +65.5 |
| Dickens County | 112 | 702 | 25 | 839 | R +70.4 |
| Oldham County | 66 | 730 | 24 | 820 | R +81.0 |
| Reagan County | 121 | 674 | 25 | 820 | R +67.5 |
| Sherman County | 58 | 732 | 24 | 814 | R +82.7 |
| Throckmorton County | 61 | 673 | 22 | 756 | R +80.8 |
| Culberson County | 344 | 371 | 21 | 736 | R +3.7 |
| Cochran County | 118 | 595 | 22 | 735 | R +64.8 |
| Irion County | 81 | 604 | 21 | 706 | R +74.0 |
| Edwards County | 82 | 557 | 19 | 658 | R +72.1 |
| Briscoe County | 48 | 563 | 19 | 630 | R +81.7 |
| Stonewall County | 90 | 490 | 18 | 598 | R +67.0 |
| Motley County | 33 | 522 | 17 | 572 | R +85.5 |
| Cottle County | 77 | 472 | 17 | 566 | R +69.8 |
| Glasscock County | 30 | 502 | 17 | 549 | R +86.0 |
| Sterling County | 30 | 461 | 15 | 506 | R +85.0 |
| Foard County | 88 | 402 | 14 | 504 | R +62.2 |
| Roberts County | 11 | 405 | 13 | 429 | R +91.9 |
| Terrell County | 94 | 281 | 11 | 386 | R +48.5 |
| Kent County | 39 | 325 | 12 | 376 | R +76.0 |
| Borden County | 17 | 295 | 10 | 322 | R +86.6 |
| McMullen County | 23 | 240 | 9 | 272 | R +80.1 |
| King County | 5 | 102 | 3 | 110 | R +88.3 |
| Kenedy County | 22 | 42 | 2 | 66 | R +29.9 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +75.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +2.9 and R +10.6. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +1.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +2.0 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +3.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +2.9 and R +10.6.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Riley | Yeary | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 43.9 | 56.1 | R +12.2 |