Alan Wilson is very likely to win South Carolina's governorship.
Jermaine Johnson vs Alan Wilson, an open seat. The model has Wilson ahead by 7.7 points, winning 87 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
2,039,278 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Alan Wilson R | 1,076,259 | 52.8% |
| Jermaine Johnson D | 918,971 | 45.1% |
| Walid Hakim G | 24,471 | 1.2% |
| Michael Addison UC | 19,577 | 1.0% |
| Total | 2,039,278 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +1.1 and R +16.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +12.8 | |
| On Point Polling | 294 LV | 0d | R +8.642.5 to 51.1 |
| Trafalgar Group (R)Lean R | 1,095 LV | 0d | R +16.036.5 to 52.5 |
| National Public Affairs | 604 LV | 0d | R +10.041 to 51 |
| FITSNews/Rick Quinn | 638 RV | 12d | R +10.135.03 to 45.17 |
| Resonance Media | 638 RV | 12d | R +10.035 to 45 |
| Hart Research (D) | 600 RV | 61d | R +8.042 to 50 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 577 RV | 90d | R +8.037 to 45 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
South Carolina has no early vote reported yet, so its turnout correction comes from similar states that do and from its primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
59 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Katrina ShealyFormer Republican state senatorsource
- Andy BeshearGovernor of Kentuckysource
- Wes MooreGovernor of Marylandsource
- Gavin NewsomGovernor of Californiasource
- Carl AndersonSouth Carolina state representative, HD-103source
- Heather BauerSouth Carolina state representative, HD-75source
- Bill ClyburnSouth Carolina state representative, HD-82source
- Kambrell GarvinSouth Carolina state representative, HD-77source
- Derek BrownAttorney general of Utahsource
- Mike HilgersAttorney general of Nebraskasource
- Kris KobachAttorney general of Kansassource
- J.B. McCuskeyAttorney general of West Virginiasource
- Liz MurrillAttorney general of Louisianasource
- Todd RokitaAttorney general of Indianasource
- Dave SundayAttorney general of Pennsylvaniasource
- Nancy MaceU.S. Representative SC-1source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Johnson | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 41.1 | 56.7 |
| Women | 52% | 48.9 | 48.9 |
| Age18 to 29 | 12% | 45.4 | 52.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 20% | 43.1 | 54.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 44.6 | 53.2 |
| 65+ | 35% | 46.9 | 51.0 |
| RaceWhite | 69% | 32.1 | 65.7 |
| Black | 24% | 79.4 | 18.5 |
| Latino | 3% | 52.1 | 45.7 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 61.2 | 36.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 32% | 26.8 | 71.0 |
| White women | 37% | 36.7 | 61.1 |
| Black men | 12% | 75.1 | 22.8 |
| Black women | 12% | 83.5 | 14.4 |
| Latino men | 2% | 52.3 | 45.5 |
| Latino women | 2% | 52.0 | 45.9 |
| All other races | 4% | 61.2 | 36.1 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
46 counties| County | Johnson | Wilson | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 918,925 | 1,075,971 | 44,382 | 2,039,278 | R +7.7 |
| Greenville County | 84,570 | 122,475 | 5,527 | 212,572 | R +17.9 |
| Charleston County | 101,126 | 73,755 | 3,934 | 178,815 | D +15.3 |
| Richland County | 110,640 | 44,148 | 3,644 | 158,432 | D +41.9 |
| Horry County | 56,842 | 95,932 | 2,801 | 155,575 | R +25.1 |
| Spartanburg County | 42,775 | 74,824 | 2,523 | 120,122 | R +26.7 |
| Lexington County | 40,528 | 74,011 | 3,542 | 118,081 | R +28.4 |
| York County | 52,382 | 60,621 | 2,898 | 115,901 | R +7.1 |
| Berkeley County | 40,848 | 45,208 | 2,207 | 88,263 | R +5.0 |
| Beaufort County | 38,608 | 44,533 | 1,181 | 84,322 | R +7.0 |
| Anderson County | 22,893 | 52,683 | 1,621 | 77,197 | R +38.6 |
| Aiken County | 26,934 | 38,637 | 1,543 | 67,114 | R +17.5 |
| Dorchester County | 29,701 | 29,641 | 1,522 | 60,864 | D +0.1 |
| Florence County | 24,203 | 24,861 | 1,001 | 50,065 | R +1.3 |
| Pickens County | 12,311 | 35,693 | 1,231 | 49,235 | R +47.5 |
| Lancaster County | 17,501 | 23,231 | 831 | 41,563 | R +13.9 |
| Sumter County | 22,122 | 14,343 | 593 | 37,058 | D +20.9 |
| Oconee County | 8,446 | 24,196 | 734 | 33,376 | R +47.3 |
| Orangeburg County | 20,779 | 9,883 | 372 | 31,034 | D +35.1 |
| Georgetown County | 14,192 | 16,057 | 461 | 30,710 | R +6.0 |
| Kershaw County | 10,401 | 15,440 | 528 | 26,369 | R +19.2 |
| Greenwood County | 10,743 | 14,363 | 512 | 25,618 | R +14.1 |
| Darlington County | 11,507 | 12,164 | 360 | 24,031 | R +2.8 |
| Laurens County | 7,987 | 15,508 | 528 | 24,023 | R +31.3 |
| Cherokee County | 5,304 | 13,884 | 351 | 19,539 | R +43.9 |
| Newberry County | 5,358 | 9,118 | 356 | 14,832 | R +25.4 |
| Chesterfield County | 6,378 | 8,012 | 263 | 14,653 | R +11.2 |
| Colleton County | 7,119 | 7,220 | 278 | 14,617 | R +0.7 |
| Jasper County | 7,206 | 6,177 | 246 | 13,629 | D +7.6 |
| Clarendon County | 6,776 | 6,179 | 170 | 13,125 | D +4.5 |
| Chester County | 5,675 | 5,906 | 273 | 11,854 | R +2.0 |
| Williamsburg County | 7,906 | 3,751 | 190 | 11,847 | D +35.0 |
| Edgefield County | 4,088 | 6,485 | 194 | 10,767 | R +22.2 |
| Marion County | 6,563 | 3,727 | 178 | 10,468 | D +27.1 |
| Union County | 4,184 | 5,560 | 198 | 9,942 | R +13.8 |
| Abbeville County | 3,420 | 6,224 | 187 | 9,831 | R +28.5 |
| Dillon County | 5,003 | 4,293 | 160 | 9,456 | D +7.6 |
| Fairfield County | 5,739 | 3,356 | 233 | 9,328 | D +25.6 |
| Marlboro County | 4,983 | 3,045 | 173 | 8,201 | D +23.6 |
| Barnwell County | 3,744 | 3,712 | 129 | 7,585 | D +0.3 |
| Saluda County | 2,470 | 4,749 | 140 | 7,359 | R +30.9 |
| Hampton County | 4,135 | 2,467 | 114 | 6,716 | D +24.8 |
| Calhoun County | 3,029 | 3,233 | 141 | 6,403 | R +3.2 |
| Lee County | 4,314 | 1,972 | 96 | 6,382 | D +36.8 |
| McCormick County | 2,430 | 2,533 | 81 | 5,044 | R +1.9 |
| Bamberg County | 3,139 | 1,615 | 87 | 4,841 | D +31.4 |
| Allendale County | 1,923 | 546 | 50 | 2,519 | D +54.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.