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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 ballot measure forecast

Colorado Amendment 81

Police must report undocumented violent offenders to DHS

Requires state and local police to notify federal DHS within 72 hours when a person charged with a violent crime or prior felony is not lawfully present. The forecast has Yes at 51.8 percent against the 55 percent it needs, a 37% chance to pass.

Leans failCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentImmigrationUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
37%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
51.8%
80% range 39 to 65
Needs
55%
55 percent of the votes on the question
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 55
2035506580
History and structure
51.8% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
51.8% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.

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Amendment 81 by county

Conejos CountyJackson CountyArchuleta CountyWashington CountyGarfield CountyRio Grande CountyMorgan CountyElbert CountyMontrose CountyOtero CountyTeller CountyPhillips CountyYuma CountyPueblo CountyAlamosa CountyBaca CountyMontezuma CountyArapahoe CountyMineral CountyDolores CountyJefferson CountyDelta CountyGrand CountySaguache CountySummit CountyGunnison CountyCostilla CountyWeld CountyLas Animas CountyRoutt CountyDouglas CountyRio Blanco CountyBroomfield CountyDenver CountyBoulder CountyLarimer CountyCrowley CountyCuster CountyEl Paso CountyGilpin CountyHuerfano CountyOuray CountyCheyenne CountyMoffat CountyPitkin CountyProwers CountySan Juan CountyLa Plata CountyHinsdale CountyKit Carson CountySan Miguel CountyClear Creek CountyKiowa CountyPark CountyLake CountyLincoln CountyAdams CountyEagle CountyLogan CountySedgwick CountyChaffee CountyFremont CountyMesa CountyBent CountyEl PasoDenverJeffersonArapahoeDouglasAdamsLarimerBoulderWeldMesaPuebloBroomfield
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
El Paso County: Yes +62,350Weld County: Yes +39,566Douglas County: Yes +33,713Mesa County: Yes +22,886Adams County: Yes +12,011Pueblo County: Yes +11,942Fremont County: Yes +8,755Montrose County: Yes +7,651Elbert County: Yes +7,544Delta County: Yes +6,172Morgan County: Yes +5,310Teller County: Yes +5,192Logan County: Yes +4,755Montezuma County: Yes +3,545Moffat County: Yes +3,303Garfield County: Yes +2,917Park County: Yes +2,480Yuma County: Yes +2,416Otero County: Yes +2,400Prowers County: Yes +2,190Kit Carson County: Yes +1,951Rio Blanco County: Yes +1,812Archuleta County: Yes +1,762Washington County: Yes +1,648Las Animas County: Yes +1,516Rio Grande County: Yes +1,514Lincoln County: Yes +1,362Alamosa County: Yes +1,330Custer County: Yes +1,212Phillips County: Yes +1,165Baca County: Yes +1,109Grand County: Yes +1,107Conejos County: Yes +879Bent County: Yes +809Crowley County: Yes +790Huerfano County: Yes +723Cheyenne County: Yes +636Dolores County: Yes +628Sedgwick County: Yes +607Kiowa County: Yes +491Jackson County: Yes +364Chaffee County: Yes +361Saguache County: Yes +298Larimer County: Yes +141Gilpin County: Yes +121Hinsdale County: Yes +108Mineral County: Yes +102Clear Creek County: Yes +43Costilla County: Yes +38Lake County: Yes +27Denver County: No +100,075Boulder County: No +53,307Arapahoe County: No +4,968Jefferson County: No +3,993Broomfield County: No +3,177Summit County: No +2,284Pitkin County: No +2,007Eagle County: No +1,189San Miguel County: No +1,058Routt County: No +1,051Gunnison County: No +832La Plata County: No +208Ouray County: No +81San Juan County: No +47
Yes +271,752 net votes from 50 countiesStatewide Yes +3.7, a 97,475 vote marginNo +174,277 net votes from 14 counties

Projected vote

2,661,967 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,379,72151.8%
No1,282,24648.2%
Total2,661,967100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
El Paso County189,275126,925316,20059.9%
Denver County106,433206,508312,94134.0%
Jefferson County150,699154,692305,39149.3%
Arapahoe County135,661140,629276,29049.1%
Douglas County111,88878,175190,06358.9%
Adams County99,96187,950187,91153.2%
Larimer County92,94592,804185,74950.0%
Boulder County57,653110,960168,61334.2%
Weld County91,76052,194143,95463.7%
Mesa County49,87026,98476,85464.9%
Pueblo County42,30830,36672,67458.2%
Broomfield County17,67020,84738,51745.9%
La Plata County15,01815,22630,24449.7%
Garfield County14,30511,38825,69355.7%
Eagle County11,22612,41523,64147.5%
Fremont County15,3916,63622,02769.9%
Montrose County14,5916,94021,53167.8%
Delta County11,2735,10116,37468.8%
Elbert County11,4823,93815,42074.5%
Summit County6,3488,63214,98042.4%
Teller County9,4934,30113,79468.8%
Routt County6,3707,42113,79146.2%
Montezuma County8,2194,67412,89363.7%
Chaffee County6,0795,71811,79751.5%
Morgan County8,2862,97611,26273.6%
Park County6,3153,83510,15062.2%
Pitkin County3,7955,8029,59739.5%
Gunnison County4,2445,0769,32045.5%
Logan County6,8572,1028,95976.5%
Grand County4,6843,5778,26156.7%
Archuleta County4,7693,0077,77661.3%
Otero County5,0352,6357,67065.6%
Las Animas County4,1612,6456,80661.1%
Alamosa County3,9172,5876,50460.2%
Moffat County4,4991,1965,69579.0%
Clear Creek County2,6322,5895,22150.4%
Rio Grande County3,3661,8525,21864.5%
Prowers County3,3591,1694,52874.2%
San Miguel County1,5352,5934,12837.2%
Yuma County3,2198034,02280.0%
Huerfano County2,2751,5523,82759.4%
Conejos County2,1741,2953,46962.7%
Gilpin County1,7361,6153,35151.8%
Ouray County1,5831,6643,24748.8%
Lake County1,6341,6073,24150.4%
Custer County2,1989863,18469.0%
Kit Carson County2,5435923,13581.1%
Rio Blanco County2,4556433,09879.2%
Saguache County1,6181,3202,93855.1%
Washington County2,0353872,42284.0%
Lincoln County1,8324702,30279.6%
Bent County1,4166072,02370.0%
Phillips County1,5884232,01179.0%
Costilla County8848461,73051.1%
Baca County1,4173081,72582.1%
Crowley County1,2444541,69873.3%
Dolores County9433151,25875.0%
Sedgwick County8792721,15176.4%
Cheyenne County76713189885.4%
Kiowa County60811772583.9%
Jackson County52916569476.2%
Hinsdale County30619850460.7%
Mineral County28017845861.1%
San Juan County18623341944.4%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 55.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 81 is forecast as a immigration measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org. All measures.