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2026 ballot measure forecast

Alabama Statewide Amendment 1

Lieutenant governor vacancies and legislative officer pay

Provides an election to fill a lieutenant governor vacancy early in a term, lets the Legislature set pay for the lieutenant governor and legislative officers by joint resolution, and requires a legislative officer to approve legislative travel spending. The forecast has Yes at 69.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 97% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureGovernment and ethicsUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
97%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.0%
80% range 57 to 80
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
69.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
69.0% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
The campaign

Sponsored by Sen. Sam Givhan R; passed both chambers unanimously; no organized campaign reported.

Also on the Alabama ballot

Statewide Amendment 2
Process for merging county school systems
84%
Statewide Amendment 3
Daily Pledge and student led prayer in schools
95%
Statewide Amendment 4
Weekly national anthem in public schools
96%

Statewide Amendment 1 by county

Butler CountyCoffee CountyMorgan CountyBaldwin CountyLowndes CountyFayette CountyWinston CountyChilton CountyJefferson CountyClay CountyChambers CountySt. Clair CountyLauderdale CountyDeKalb CountyGreene CountyCherokee CountyColbert CountyMontgomery CountyEtowah CountyFranklin CountyElmore CountyPerry CountyCalhoun CountyDallas CountyConecuh CountyChoctaw CountySumter CountyRandolph CountyLimestone CountyMarshall CountyBullock CountyRussell CountyShelby CountyClarke CountyMarengo CountyHale CountyLamar CountyPickens CountyCoosa CountyWalker CountyWashington CountyCrenshaw CountyDale CountyLee CountyAutauga CountyBarbour CountyMobile CountyBibb CountyPike CountyGeneva CountyHouston CountyMarion CountyCleburne CountyMadison CountyWilcox CountyBlount CountyLawrence CountyTuscaloosa CountyMacon CountyTallapoosa CountyJackson CountyCovington CountyMonroe CountyTalladega CountyHenry CountyEscambia CountyCullman CountyJeffersonMadisonMobileBaldwinShelbyMontgomeryTuscaloosaLeeMorganLimestoneCalhounHouston
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Jefferson County: Yes +83,698Madison County: Yes +51,858Mobile County: Yes +47,712Baldwin County: Yes +31,731Shelby County: Yes +29,573Montgomery County: Yes +26,359Tuscaloosa County: Yes +23,938Lee County: Yes +19,297Morgan County: Yes +14,039Limestone County: Yes +13,593Calhoun County: Yes +13,061Houston County: Yes +12,332Etowah County: Yes +11,684St. Clair County: Yes +11,555Lauderdale County: Yes +11,377Elmore County: Yes +11,195Cullman County: Yes +11,129Marshall County: Yes +10,387Talladega County: Yes +9,273Walker County: Yes +7,743Autauga County: Yes +7,568DeKalb County: Yes +7,516Colbert County: Yes +7,232Blount County: Yes +7,070Coffee County: Yes +6,189Jackson County: Yes +6,014Russell County: Yes +5,637Tallapoosa County: Yes +5,565Dale County: Yes +5,347Chilton County: Yes +5,209Covington County: Yes +4,772Dallas County: Yes +4,755Lawrence County: Yes +4,390Escambia County: Yes +4,191Chambers County: Yes +3,957Pike County: Yes +3,763Marion County: Yes +3,607Clarke County: Yes +3,484Geneva County: Yes +3,457Cherokee County: Yes +3,350Franklin County: Yes +3,252Winston County: Yes +2,947Randolph County: Yes +2,889Barbour County: Yes +2,838Marengo County: Yes +2,830Monroe County: Yes +2,807Henry County: Yes +2,682Pickens County: Yes +2,594Bibb County: Yes +2,535Macon County: Yes +2,474Butler County: Yes +2,460Washington County: Yes +2,348Fayette County: Yes +2,260Hale County: Yes +2,096Cleburne County: Yes +1,996Choctaw County: Yes +1,965Crenshaw County: Yes +1,844Lamar County: Yes +1,824Clay County: Yes +1,791Conecuh County: Yes +1,745Lowndes County: Yes +1,644Sumter County: Yes +1,638Wilcox County: Yes +1,542Coosa County: Yes +1,508Perry County: Yes +1,298Bullock County: Yes +1,215Greene County: Yes +1,204
Yes +612,833 net votes from 67 countiesStatewide Yes +38.0, a 612,833 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

1,612,947 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,112,89069.0%
No500,05731.0%
Total1,612,947100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Jefferson County151,99468,296220,29069.0%
Madison County94,17242,314136,48669.0%
Mobile County86,64338,931125,57469.0%
Baldwin County57,62225,89183,51369.0%
Shelby County53,70424,13177,83569.0%
Montgomery County47,86821,50969,37769.0%
Tuscaloosa County43,47119,53363,00469.0%
Lee County35,04315,74650,78969.0%
Morgan County25,49511,45636,95169.0%
Limestone County24,68511,09235,77769.0%
Calhoun County23,71810,65734,37569.0%
Houston County22,39510,06332,45869.0%
Etowah County21,2199,53530,75469.0%
St. Clair County20,9839,42830,41169.0%
Lauderdale County20,6609,28329,94369.0%
Elmore County20,3309,13529,46569.0%
Cullman County20,2109,08129,29169.0%
Marshall County18,8638,47627,33969.0%
Talladega County16,8407,56724,40769.0%
Walker County14,0626,31920,38169.0%
Autauga County13,7446,17619,92069.0%
DeKalb County13,6486,13219,78069.0%
Colbert County13,1335,90119,03469.0%
Blount County12,8395,76918,60869.0%
Coffee County11,2395,05016,28969.0%
Jackson County10,9224,90815,83069.0%
Russell County10,2374,60014,83769.0%
Tallapoosa County10,1064,54114,64769.0%
Dale County9,7094,36214,07169.0%
Chilton County9,4604,25113,71169.0%
Covington County8,6653,89312,55869.0%
Dallas County8,6353,88012,51569.0%
Lawrence County7,9723,58211,55469.0%
Escambia County7,6103,41911,02969.0%
Chambers County7,1853,22810,41369.0%
Pike County6,8343,0719,90569.0%
Marion County6,5512,9449,49569.0%
Clarke County6,3262,8429,16869.0%
Geneva County6,2782,8219,09969.0%
Cherokee County6,0842,7348,81869.0%
Franklin County5,9052,6538,55869.0%
Winston County5,3522,4057,75769.0%
Randolph County5,2472,3587,60569.0%
Barbour County5,1532,3157,46869.0%
Marengo County5,1402,3107,45069.0%
Monroe County5,0982,2917,38969.0%
Henry County4,8712,1897,06069.0%
Pickens County4,7112,1176,82869.0%
Bibb County4,6032,0686,67169.0%
Macon County4,4922,0186,51069.0%
Butler County4,4672,0076,47469.0%
Washington County4,2641,9166,18069.0%
Fayette County4,1051,8455,95069.0%
Hale County3,8061,7105,51669.0%
Cleburne County3,6251,6295,25469.0%
Choctaw County3,5681,6035,17169.0%
Crenshaw County3,3491,5054,85469.0%
Lamar County3,3131,4894,80269.0%
Clay County3,2531,4624,71569.0%
Conecuh County3,1681,4234,59169.0%
Lowndes County2,9851,3414,32669.0%
Sumter County2,9751,3374,31269.0%
Wilcox County2,7991,2574,05669.0%
Coosa County2,7381,2303,96869.0%
Perry County2,3571,0593,41669.0%
Bullock County2,2069913,19769.0%
Greene County2,1869823,16869.0%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Statewide Amendment 1 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Alabama's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: alabamareflector.com, theballotbrief.com, sos.alabama.gov. All measures.