John Hickenlooper is all but certain to win Colorado's Senate seat.
John Hickenlooper vs Mark Baisley. The model has Hickenlooper ahead by 20.9 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
2,831,874 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| John Hickenlooper D | 1,677,991 | 59.3% |
| Mark Baisley R | 1,086,767 | 38.4% |
| Other / independents O | 66,832 | 2.4% |
| Total | 2,831,874 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +29.3 and D +12.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
Polls of the race
| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | No polls |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 656,902 ballots cast so far in Colorado, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
20 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Ken SalazarFormer ambassador to Mexico, former U.S. Senatorsource
- John SalazarFormer U.S. Representative, CO-03source
- Elizabeth WarrenU.S. Senator from Massachusettssource
- Michael BennetU.S. Senator from Coloradosource
- Giffordsgun safety organizationsource
- End Citizens Unitedcampaign finance reform PACsource
- AFSCMEpublic employees unionsource
- Colorado Professional Fire Fightersfirefighters unionsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Hickenlooper | Baisley |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 53.3 | 44.4 |
| Women | 53% | 63.5 | 34.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 60.7 | 36.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 26% | 56.6 | 41.0 |
| 45 to 64 | 30% | 57.2 | 40.4 |
| 65+ | 28% | 60.9 | 36.7 |
| RaceWhite | 76% | 53.6 | 44.1 |
| Black | 4% | 87.9 | 9.9 |
| Latino | 14% | 68.1 | 29.5 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 80.3 | 17.0 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 35% | 46.3 | 51.4 |
| White women | 41% | 59.9 | 37.8 |
| Black men | 2% | 85.9 | 11.8 |
| Black women | 2% | 89.7 | 8.1 |
| Latino men | 8% | 64.9 | 32.6 |
| Latino women | 7% | 71.5 | 26.1 |
| All other races | 6% | 80.3 | 17.0 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
64 counties| County | Hickenlooper | Baisley | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,666,612 | 1,098,232 | 67,030 | 2,831,874 | D +20.1 |
| El Paso County | 160,407 | 166,557 | 9,419 | 336,383 | R +1.8 |
| Denver County | 272,982 | 53,275 | 6,659 | 332,916 | D +66.0 |
| Jefferson County | 204,182 | 112,905 | 7,797 | 324,884 | D +28.0 |
| Arapahoe County | 194,070 | 93,095 | 6,760 | 293,925 | D +34.5 |
| Douglas County | 99,764 | 98,791 | 3,640 | 202,195 | D +0.6 |
| Adams County | 120,005 | 73,704 | 6,197 | 199,906 | D +23.1 |
| Larimer County | 116,466 | 76,594 | 4,545 | 197,605 | D +20.2 |
| Boulder County | 141,688 | 34,458 | 3,229 | 179,375 | D +59.9 |
| Weld County | 61,867 | 87,141 | 4,135 | 153,143 | R +16.6 |
| Mesa County | 31,548 | 48,332 | 1,880 | 81,760 | R +20.5 |
| Pueblo County | 40,619 | 34,529 | 2,164 | 77,312 | D +7.9 |
| Broomfield County | 27,545 | 12,571 | 860 | 40,976 | D +36.6 |
| La Plata County | 20,065 | 11,498 | 611 | 32,174 | D +26.6 |
| Garfield County | 15,010 | 11,667 | 656 | 27,333 | D +12.2 |
| Eagle County | 16,971 | 7,701 | 478 | 25,150 | D +36.7 |
| Fremont County | 8,320 | 14,386 | 727 | 23,433 | R +25.9 |
| Montrose County | 8,105 | 14,319 | 481 | 22,905 | R +27.1 |
| Delta County | 6,129 | 10,872 | 418 | 17,419 | R +27.1 |
| Elbert County | 4,261 | 11,749 | 394 | 16,404 | R +45.7 |
| Summit County | 11,522 | 4,095 | 319 | 15,936 | D +46.6 |
| Teller County | 5,509 | 8,769 | 397 | 14,675 | R +22.2 |
| Routt County | 9,928 | 4,450 | 293 | 14,671 | D +37.2 |
| Montezuma County | 5,725 | 7,662 | 329 | 13,716 | R +14.1 |
| Chaffee County | 7,131 | 5,118 | 301 | 12,550 | D +16.0 |
| Morgan County | 3,376 | 8,328 | 276 | 11,980 | R +41.3 |
| Park County | 4,932 | 5,553 | 313 | 10,798 | R +5.7 |
| Pitkin County | 8,090 | 1,977 | 143 | 10,210 | D +59.8 |
| Gunnison County | 6,536 | 3,131 | 248 | 9,915 | D +34.4 |
| Logan County | 2,417 | 6,885 | 229 | 9,531 | R +46.9 |
| Grand County | 4,699 | 3,896 | 193 | 8,788 | D +9.1 |
| Archuleta County | 3,833 | 4,217 | 223 | 8,273 | R +4.6 |
| Otero County | 3,299 | 4,640 | 220 | 8,159 | R +16.4 |
| Las Animas County | 3,593 | 3,437 | 210 | 7,240 | D +2.1 |
| Alamosa County | 3,340 | 3,378 | 201 | 6,919 | R +0.6 |
| Moffat County | 1,327 | 4,569 | 163 | 6,059 | R +53.5 |
| Clear Creek County | 3,447 | 1,957 | 150 | 5,554 | D +26.7 |
| Rio Grande County | 2,285 | 3,105 | 161 | 5,551 | R +14.7 |
| Prowers County | 1,347 | 3,359 | 111 | 4,817 | R +41.7 |
| San Miguel County | 3,455 | 848 | 88 | 4,391 | D +59.4 |
| Yuma County | 802 | 3,421 | 56 | 4,279 | R +61.3 |
| Huerfano County | 1,932 | 2,009 | 130 | 4,071 | R +1.9 |
| Conejos County | 1,783 | 1,837 | 70 | 3,690 | R +1.4 |
| Gilpin County | 2,125 | 1,315 | 125 | 3,565 | D +22.6 |
| Ouray County | 2,190 | 1,205 | 59 | 3,454 | D +28.5 |
| Lake County | 2,079 | 1,238 | 131 | 3,448 | D +24.5 |
| Custer County | 1,021 | 2,295 | 71 | 3,387 | R +37.5 |
| Kit Carson County | 605 | 2,661 | 70 | 3,336 | R +61.5 |
| Rio Blanco County | 617 | 2,609 | 69 | 3,295 | R +60.5 |
| Saguache County | 1,761 | 1,261 | 103 | 3,125 | D +16.0 |
| Washington County | 365 | 2,176 | 36 | 2,577 | R +70.1 |
| Lincoln County | 479 | 1,906 | 64 | 2,449 | R +58.3 |
| Bent County | 742 | 1,348 | 62 | 2,152 | R +28.1 |
| Phillips County | 443 | 1,657 | 39 | 2,139 | R +56.8 |
| Costilla County | 1,197 | 589 | 54 | 1,840 | D +33.1 |
| Baca County | 310 | 1,474 | 51 | 1,835 | R +63.2 |
| Crowley County | 553 | 1,191 | 62 | 1,806 | R +35.3 |
| Dolores County | 372 | 933 | 33 | 1,338 | R +41.8 |
| Sedgwick County | 292 | 899 | 33 | 1,224 | R +49.5 |
| Cheyenne County | 114 | 820 | 21 | 955 | R +73.9 |
| Kiowa County | 95 | 661 | 15 | 771 | R +73.2 |
| Jackson County | 174 | 545 | 19 | 738 | R +50.1 |
| Hinsdale County | 246 | 278 | 12 | 536 | R +5.7 |
| Mineral County | 224 | 248 | 15 | 487 | R +4.7 |
| San Juan County | 296 | 138 | 12 | 446 | D +35.6 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.