2026 forecast · Ohio Treasurer
Seth Walsh is slightly favored to win Ohio's treasurer race.
Seth Walsh vs Jay Edwards, an open seat. The model has Walsh ahead by 2.4 points, with a 66 percent chance of winning.
Lean DModel D +2.4Updated October 22, 2026
Seth Walsh
Democrat
50.7%
2,419,657 projected votes
Jay Edwards
Republican
48.3%
2,304,308 projected votes
66%Walsh
34%Edwards
Walsh favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Walsh wins about 66 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Walsh +740,939 net votes from 11 countiesStatewide D +2.4, a 115,351 vote marginEdwards +625,588 net votes from 77 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,771,682 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Walsh D | 2,419,657 | 50.7% |
| Jay Edwards R | 2,304,308 | 48.3% |
| Other candidates | 47,716 | 1.0% |
| Total | 4,771,682 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
88 counties| County | Walsh | Edwards | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,419,656 | 2,304,305 | 47,719 | 4,771,680 | D +2.4 |
| Franklin County | 369,732 | 133,250 | 5,080 | 508,062 | D +46.5 |
| Cuyahoga County | 371,030 | 121,098 | 4,970 | 497,098 | D +50.3 |
| Hamilton County | 222,970 | 122,013 | 3,485 | 348,468 | D +29.0 |
| Summit County | 141,015 | 84,973 | 2,283 | 228,271 | D +24.6 |
| Montgomery County | 117,550 | 94,185 | 2,139 | 213,874 | D +10.9 |
| Lucas County | 101,505 | 55,870 | 1,589 | 158,964 | D +28.7 |
| Stark County | 68,006 | 82,268 | 1,518 | 151,792 | R +9.4 |
| Butler County | 60,411 | 88,031 | 1,500 | 149,942 | R +18.4 |
| Lorain County | 69,147 | 58,793 | 1,292 | 129,232 | D +8.0 |
| Warren County | 43,165 | 69,022 | 1,133 | 113,320 | R +22.8 |
| Delaware County | 54,984 | 53,330 | 1,094 | 109,408 | D +1.5 |
| Lake County | 49,741 | 54,441 | 1,052 | 105,234 | R +4.5 |
| Mahoning County | 51,790 | 42,648 | 954 | 95,392 | D +9.6 |
| Clermont County | 31,249 | 59,178 | 913 | 91,340 | R +30.6 |
| Medina County | 38,160 | 47,532 | 866 | 86,558 | R +10.8 |
| Trumbull County | 39,868 | 40,252 | 808 | 80,928 | R +0.5 |
| Licking County | 29,926 | 45,236 | 759 | 75,921 | R +20.2 |
| Greene County | 31,397 | 42,821 | 749 | 74,967 | R +15.2 |
| Portage County | 33,814 | 34,497 | 691 | 69,002 | R +1.0 |
| Fairfield County | 28,643 | 38,653 | 680 | 67,976 | R +14.7 |
| Wood County | 27,129 | 27,742 | 555 | 55,426 | R +1.1 |
| Clark County | 21,568 | 28,867 | 509 | 50,944 | R +14.3 |
| Richland County | 15,433 | 32,105 | 480 | 48,018 | R +34.7 |
| Miami County | 14,031 | 32,801 | 474 | 47,306 | R +39.7 |
| Geauga County | 19,477 | 26,178 | 461 | 46,116 | R +14.5 |
| Wayne County | 15,337 | 27,844 | 436 | 43,617 | R +28.7 |
| Columbiana County | 12,452 | 26,578 | 394 | 39,424 | R +35.8 |
| Allen County | 11,382 | 25,853 | 375 | 37,610 | R +38.5 |
| Ashtabula County | 15,315 | 19,594 | 353 | 35,262 | R +12.1 |
| Tuscarawas County | 12,207 | 22,056 | 345 | 34,608 | R +28.5 |
| Erie County | 16,246 | 15,972 | 326 | 32,544 | D +0.8 |
| Muskingum County | 10,493 | 20,798 | 315 | 31,606 | R +32.6 |
| Hancock County | 10,055 | 20,484 | 308 | 30,847 | R +33.8 |
| Union County | 10,681 | 18,275 | 293 | 29,249 | R +26.0 |
| Ross County | 9,963 | 16,464 | 267 | 26,694 | R +24.4 |
| Knox County | 7,669 | 18,095 | 260 | 26,024 | R +40.1 |
| Jefferson County | 9,262 | 16,266 | 258 | 25,786 | R +27.2 |
| Belmont County | 8,963 | 16,432 | 257 | 25,652 | R +29.1 |
| Washington County | 8,632 | 16,323 | 252 | 25,207 | R +30.5 |
| Scioto County | 8,502 | 16,425 | 251 | 25,178 | R +31.5 |
| Sandusky County | 9,319 | 14,399 | 240 | 23,958 | R +21.2 |
| Pickaway County | 7,101 | 15,833 | 232 | 23,166 | R +37.7 |
| Athens County | 14,847 | 7,745 | 228 | 22,820 | D +31.1 |
| Marion County | 7,587 | 14,640 | 225 | 22,452 | R +31.4 |
| Darke County | 3,902 | 17,531 | 217 | 21,650 | R +63.0 |
| Huron County | 6,855 | 14,283 | 214 | 21,352 | R +34.8 |
| Ashland County | 5,646 | 15,253 | 211 | 21,110 | R +45.5 |
| Lawrence County | 6,576 | 13,949 | 208 | 20,733 | R +35.6 |
| Seneca County | 7,302 | 13,112 | 206 | 20,620 | R +28.2 |
| Auglaize County | 3,896 | 16,437 | 205 | 20,538 | R +61.1 |
| Shelby County | 3,687 | 16,344 | 203 | 20,234 | R +62.5 |
| Ottawa County | 8,547 | 11,087 | 198 | 19,832 | R +12.8 |
| Mercer County | 3,361 | 15,569 | 190 | 19,120 | R +63.9 |
| Logan County | 4,227 | 14,160 | 185 | 18,572 | R +53.5 |
| Fulton County | 5,762 | 11,997 | 180 | 17,939 | R +34.8 |
| Preble County | 3,984 | 13,194 | 174 | 17,352 | R +53.1 |
| Madison County | 5,493 | 11,072 | 167 | 16,732 | R +33.4 |
| Brown County | 4,220 | 12,238 | 166 | 16,624 | R +48.2 |
| Crawford County | 4,305 | 11,915 | 163 | 16,383 | R +46.5 |
| Clinton County | 4,248 | 11,893 | 163 | 16,304 | R +46.9 |
| Putnam County | 2,646 | 13,451 | 163 | 16,260 | R +66.5 |
| Champaign County | 4,762 | 11,224 | 161 | 16,147 | R +40.0 |
| Highland County | 3,448 | 11,968 | 156 | 15,572 | R +54.7 |
| Defiance County | 4,845 | 10,222 | 153 | 15,220 | R +35.3 |
| Morrow County | 3,963 | 10,785 | 148 | 14,896 | R +45.8 |
| Williams County | 3,910 | 10,444 | 145 | 14,499 | R +45.1 |
| Guernsey County | 4,089 | 9,763 | 140 | 13,992 | R +40.5 |
| Perry County | 4,088 | 9,234 | 135 | 13,457 | R +38.2 |
| Coshocton County | 3,632 | 9,411 | 132 | 13,175 | R +43.9 |
| Henry County | 3,055 | 8,492 | 117 | 11,664 | R +46.6 |
| Van Wert County | 2,557 | 8,850 | 116 | 11,523 | R +54.6 |
| Carroll County | 3,147 | 7,872 | 111 | 11,130 | R +42.5 |
| Jackson County | 3,016 | 7,870 | 110 | 10,996 | R +44.1 |
| Hocking County | 3,828 | 6,768 | 107 | 10,703 | R +27.5 |
| Holmes County | 1,706 | 8,811 | 107 | 10,624 | R +66.9 |
| Hardin County | 2,803 | 7,671 | 106 | 10,580 | R +46.0 |
| Gallia County | 2,701 | 7,748 | 105 | 10,554 | R +47.8 |
| Adams County | 2,234 | 7,640 | 100 | 9,974 | R +54.2 |
| Fayette County | 2,384 | 7,488 | 100 | 9,972 | R +51.2 |
| Pike County | 2,964 | 6,377 | 95 | 9,436 | R +36.2 |
| Wyandot County | 2,484 | 6,463 | 91 | 9,038 | R +44.0 |
| Meigs County | 2,326 | 5,949 | 84 | 8,359 | R +43.3 |
| Paulding County | 1,855 | 5,400 | 73 | 7,328 | R +48.4 |
| Harrison County | 1,685 | 3,942 | 57 | 5,684 | R +39.7 |
| Morgan County | 1,548 | 3,809 | 54 | 5,411 | R +41.8 |
| Monroe County | 1,634 | 3,692 | 54 | 5,380 | R +38.3 |
| Noble County | 1,277 | 3,836 | 53 | 5,166 | R +49.5 |
| Vinton County | 1,304 | 3,231 | 47 | 4,582 | R +42.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.8 and R +4.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +3.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +3.0 |
| Blend of every leg | D +2.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.4 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +2.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +9.8 and R +4.9.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Walsh | Edwards | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||