2026 forecast · Georgia Lieutenant Governor
Josh McLaurin is favored to win Georgia's lieutenant governor race.
Josh McLaurin vs Greg Dolezal, an open seat. The model has McLaurin ahead by 4.2 points, with a 79 percent chance of winning.
Lean DModel D +4.2Polls R +0.1Updated October 22, 2026
Josh McLaurin
Democrat
51.6%
2,409,090 projected votes
Greg Dolezal
Republican
47.4%
2,214,445 projected votes
79%McLaurin
21%Dolezal
McLaurin favoredEach square is one simulated election night, McLaurin wins about 79 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
McLaurin +1,064,767 net votes from 31 countiesStatewide D +4.2, a 194,645 vote marginDolezal +870,122 net votes from 128 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,670,238 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Josh McLaurin D | 2,409,090 | 51.6% |
| Greg Dolezal R | 2,214,445 | 47.4% |
| Other candidates | 46,702 | 1.0% |
| Total | 4,670,238 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
159 counties| County | McLaurin | Dolezal | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,409,090 | 2,214,445 | 46,707 | 4,670,242 | D +4.2 |
| Fulton County | 380,493 | 106,907 | 4,924 | 492,324 | D +55.6 |
| Gwinnett County | 228,661 | 129,891 | 3,622 | 362,174 | D +27.3 |
| Cobb County | 216,838 | 134,652 | 3,550 | 355,040 | D +23.1 |
| DeKalb County | 295,921 | 44,134 | 3,435 | 343,490 | D +73.3 |
| Cherokee County | 40,932 | 94,382 | 1,366 | 136,680 | R +39.1 |
| Chatham County | 80,195 | 47,354 | 1,287 | 128,836 | D +25.5 |
| Forsyth County | 37,587 | 77,944 | 1,167 | 116,698 | R +34.6 |
| Henry County | 76,210 | 35,552 | 1,129 | 112,891 | D +36.0 |
| Clayton County | 97,609 | 10,732 | 1,094 | 109,435 | D +79.4 |
| Hall County | 22,137 | 63,196 | 863 | 86,196 | R +47.6 |
| Richmond County | 58,686 | 21,399 | 809 | 80,894 | D +46.1 |
| Paulding County | 30,591 | 47,745 | 791 | 79,127 | R +21.7 |
| Muscogee County | 50,922 | 24,991 | 767 | 76,680 | D +33.8 |
| Columbia County | 27,496 | 46,296 | 745 | 74,537 | R +25.2 |
| Coweta County | 24,532 | 47,840 | 731 | 73,103 | R +31.9 |
| Houston County | 32,062 | 38,476 | 712 | 71,250 | R +9.0 |
| Fayette County | 32,232 | 32,083 | 649 | 64,964 | D +0.2 |
| Bibb County | 42,163 | 21,970 | 647 | 64,780 | D +31.2 |
| Douglas County | 43,533 | 18,882 | 631 | 63,046 | D +39.1 |
| Carroll County | 14,975 | 36,448 | 519 | 51,942 | R +41.3 |
| Clarke County | 37,197 | 14,027 | 517 | 51,741 | D +44.8 |
| Newton County | 31,131 | 19,634 | 513 | 51,278 | D +22.4 |
| Walton County | 12,786 | 35,784 | 491 | 49,061 | R +46.9 |
| Bartow County | 11,882 | 35,801 | 481 | 48,164 | R +49.7 |
| Lowndes County | 19,079 | 24,465 | 440 | 43,984 | R +12.2 |
| Rockdale County | 31,703 | 9,455 | 416 | 41,574 | D +53.5 |
| Floyd County | 11,376 | 27,541 | 393 | 39,310 | R +41.1 |
| Glynn County | 14,731 | 23,755 | 389 | 38,875 | R +23.2 |
| Jackson County | 7,557 | 30,324 | 383 | 38,264 | R +59.5 |
| Barrow County | 10,200 | 25,521 | 361 | 36,082 | R +42.5 |
| Whitfield County | 8,973 | 24,627 | 340 | 33,940 | R +46.1 |
| Dougherty County | 24,674 | 8,027 | 330 | 33,031 | D +50.4 |
| Bulloch County | 11,219 | 19,148 | 307 | 30,674 | R +25.9 |
| Effingham County | 7,531 | 22,248 | 301 | 30,080 | R +48.9 |
| Catoosa County | 6,732 | 22,629 | 297 | 29,658 | R +53.6 |
| Spalding County | 12,398 | 16,494 | 291 | 29,183 | R +14.0 |
| Troup County | 10,805 | 16,910 | 280 | 27,995 | R +21.8 |
| Walker County | 5,589 | 21,730 | 275 | 27,594 | R +58.5 |
| Oconee County | 6,946 | 16,119 | 233 | 23,298 | R +39.4 |
| Gordon County | 3,917 | 19,004 | 231 | 23,152 | R +65.2 |
| Camden County | 7,285 | 15,047 | 226 | 22,558 | R +34.4 |
| Liberty County | 13,925 | 7,346 | 215 | 21,486 | D +30.6 |
| Laurens County | 7,253 | 13,757 | 212 | 21,222 | R +30.6 |
| Bryan County | 6,300 | 13,933 | 205 | 20,438 | R +37.4 |
| Habersham County | 2,862 | 17,034 | 202 | 20,098 | R +70.5 |
| Thomas County | 7,793 | 11,888 | 199 | 19,880 | R +20.6 |
| Harris County | 5,204 | 13,846 | 192 | 19,242 | R +44.9 |
| Baldwin County | 9,342 | 8,562 | 181 | 18,085 | D +4.3 |
| Pickens County | 2,678 | 14,747 | 176 | 17,601 | R +68.6 |
| Polk County | 3,256 | 13,077 | 165 | 16,498 | R +59.5 |
| Gilmer County | 2,617 | 13,274 | 161 | 16,052 | R +66.4 |
| Dawson County | 2,188 | 13,528 | 159 | 15,875 | R +71.4 |
| Lumpkin County | 2,858 | 12,628 | 157 | 15,643 | R +62.5 |
| Union County | 2,436 | 12,983 | 155 | 15,574 | R +67.7 |
| Tift County | 4,958 | 10,432 | 156 | 15,546 | R +35.2 |
| Lee County | 4,362 | 10,975 | 155 | 15,492 | R +42.7 |
| Monroe County | 3,972 | 11,303 | 154 | 15,429 | R +47.5 |
| Colquitt County | 3,830 | 11,289 | 153 | 15,272 | R +48.8 |
| Murray County | 2,043 | 12,486 | 147 | 14,676 | R +71.2 |
| Coffee County | 4,106 | 10,325 | 147 | 14,578 | R +42.7 |
| White County | 2,149 | 12,231 | 145 | 14,525 | R +69.4 |
| Madison County | 2,938 | 11,325 | 145 | 14,408 | R +58.2 |
| Fannin County | 2,211 | 11,725 | 141 | 14,077 | R +67.6 |
| Jones County | 4,581 | 9,188 | 139 | 13,908 | R +33.1 |
| Haralson County | 1,487 | 12,159 | 138 | 13,784 | R +77.4 |
| Ware County | 3,789 | 9,131 | 130 | 13,050 | R +40.9 |
| Hart County | 2,298 | 9,969 | 123 | 12,390 | R +61.9 |
| Peach County | 5,854 | 6,092 | 122 | 12,068 | R +2.0 |
| Wayne County | 2,251 | 9,631 | 120 | 12,002 | R +61.5 |
| Upson County | 3,701 | 8,157 | 120 | 11,978 | R +37.2 |
| Sumter County | 6,224 | 5,176 | 115 | 11,515 | D +9.1 |
| Butts County | 3,263 | 8,111 | 114 | 11,488 | R +42.2 |
| Putnam County | 3,218 | 8,154 | 115 | 11,487 | R +43.0 |
| Greene County | 3,842 | 7,501 | 115 | 11,458 | R +31.9 |
| Stephens County | 1,969 | 9,271 | 113 | 11,353 | R +64.3 |
| Morgan County | 2,925 | 8,245 | 112 | 11,282 | R +47.2 |
| Decatur County | 4,379 | 6,190 | 107 | 10,676 | R +17.0 |
| Franklin County | 1,132 | 9,202 | 104 | 10,438 | R +77.3 |
| Pike County | 1,255 | 8,959 | 104 | 10,318 | R +74.7 |
| Meriwether County | 3,920 | 6,198 | 102 | 10,220 | R +22.3 |
| Burke County | 4,924 | 5,014 | 100 | 10,038 | R +0.9 |
| Toombs County | 2,500 | 7,372 | 100 | 9,972 | R +48.9 |
| Grady County | 3,124 | 6,565 | 98 | 9,787 | R +35.2 |
| McDuffie County | 3,587 | 5,780 | 95 | 9,462 | R +23.2 |
| Chattooga County | 1,713 | 7,601 | 94 | 9,408 | R +62.6 |
| Rabun County | 1,844 | 7,225 | 92 | 9,161 | R +58.7 |
| Lamar County | 2,401 | 6,547 | 91 | 9,039 | R +45.9 |
| Washington County | 4,674 | 4,108 | 88 | 8,870 | D +6.4 |
| Emanuel County | 2,645 | 6,131 | 88 | 8,864 | R +39.3 |
| Banks County | 682 | 7,962 | 87 | 8,731 | R +83.4 |
| Elbert County | 2,399 | 6,044 | 85 | 8,528 | R +42.8 |
| Pierce County | 805 | 7,619 | 85 | 8,509 | R +80.1 |
| Worth County | 2,157 | 6,243 | 85 | 8,485 | R +48.2 |
| Mitchell County | 3,765 | 4,450 | 83 | 8,298 | R +8.3 |
| Tattnall County | 1,996 | 6,163 | 81 | 8,240 | R +50.6 |
| Dodge County | 1,972 | 5,861 | 79 | 7,912 | R +49.1 |
| Towns County | 1,378 | 6,341 | 77 | 7,796 | R +63.6 |
| Oglethorpe County | 2,207 | 5,361 | 77 | 7,645 | R +41.3 |
| Jasper County | 1,627 | 5,936 | 77 | 7,640 | R +56.4 |
| Crisp County | 2,832 | 4,687 | 76 | 7,595 | R +24.4 |
| Appling County | 1,356 | 6,137 | 77 | 7,570 | R +63.2 |
| Brantley County | 581 | 6,701 | 74 | 7,356 | R +83.2 |
| Berrien County | 1,038 | 6,127 | 73 | 7,238 | R +70.3 |
| Dade County | 1,240 | 5,701 | 71 | 7,012 | R +63.6 |
| Jefferson County | 3,712 | 3,142 | 69 | 6,923 | D +8.2 |
| Brooks County | 2,581 | 3,992 | 67 | 6,640 | R +21.3 |
| Cook County | 1,864 | 4,695 | 67 | 6,626 | R +42.7 |
| McIntosh County | 2,330 | 3,913 | 63 | 6,306 | R +25.1 |
| Screven County | 2,398 | 3,730 | 62 | 6,190 | R +21.5 |
| Ben Hill County | 2,149 | 3,943 | 62 | 6,154 | R +29.2 |
| Long County | 2,249 | 3,634 | 60 | 5,943 | R +23.3 |
| Crawford County | 1,492 | 4,027 | 56 | 5,575 | R +45.5 |
| Bleckley County | 1,172 | 4,305 | 55 | 5,532 | R +56.6 |
| Jeff Davis County | 791 | 4,486 | 53 | 5,330 | R +69.3 |
| Heard County | 764 | 4,435 | 53 | 5,252 | R +69.9 |
| Macon County | 2,972 | 1,603 | 46 | 4,621 | D +29.6 |
| Wilkes County | 1,919 | 2,634 | 46 | 4,599 | R +15.6 |
| Early County | 2,112 | 2,325 | 45 | 4,482 | R +4.8 |
| Wilkinson County | 1,937 | 2,409 | 44 | 4,390 | R +10.8 |
| Charlton County | 930 | 3,391 | 45 | 4,366 | R +56.4 |
| Bacon County | 527 | 3,760 | 43 | 4,330 | R +74.7 |
| Lincoln County | 1,211 | 3,063 | 43 | 4,317 | R +42.9 |
| Candler County | 1,120 | 2,992 | 42 | 4,154 | R +45.1 |
| Telfair County | 1,418 | 2,682 | 42 | 4,142 | R +30.5 |
| Dooly County | 1,994 | 2,057 | 40 | 4,091 | R +1.5 |
| Hancock County | 2,976 | 1,045 | 41 | 4,062 | D +47.5 |
| Terrell County | 2,270 | 1,731 | 41 | 4,042 | D +13.3 |
| Pulaski County | 1,205 | 2,770 | 41 | 4,016 | R +39.0 |
| Twiggs County | 1,855 | 2,037 | 40 | 3,932 | R +4.6 |
| Irwin County | 940 | 2,950 | 38 | 3,928 | R +51.2 |
| Evans County | 1,125 | 2,756 | 39 | 3,920 | R +41.6 |
| Johnson County | 1,052 | 2,715 | 39 | 3,806 | R +43.7 |
| Montgomery County | 881 | 2,759 | 36 | 3,676 | R +51.1 |
| Seminole County | 1,100 | 2,517 | 37 | 3,654 | R +38.8 |
| Taylor County | 1,292 | 2,289 | 35 | 3,616 | R +27.6 |
| Turner County | 1,285 | 2,227 | 36 | 3,548 | R +26.5 |
| Lanier County | 984 | 2,376 | 34 | 3,394 | R +41.0 |
| Jenkins County | 1,185 | 2,060 | 33 | 3,278 | R +26.7 |
| Marion County | 1,208 | 2,001 | 33 | 3,242 | R +24.5 |
| Wilcox County | 839 | 2,365 | 32 | 3,236 | R +47.2 |
| Talbot County | 1,876 | 1,194 | 31 | 3,101 | D +22.0 |
| Treutlen County | 857 | 1,902 | 28 | 2,787 | R +37.5 |
| Randolph County | 1,591 | 1,166 | 27 | 2,784 | D +15.3 |
| Atkinson County | 655 | 1,991 | 26 | 2,672 | R +50.0 |
| Clinch County | 618 | 1,875 | 25 | 2,518 | R +49.9 |
| Miller County | 606 | 1,818 | 24 | 2,448 | R +49.5 |
| Warren County | 1,322 | 1,044 | 24 | 2,390 | D +11.7 |
| Wheeler County | 695 | 1,660 | 24 | 2,379 | R +40.5 |
| Schley County | 396 | 1,688 | 20 | 2,104 | R +61.4 |
| Calhoun County | 1,260 | 794 | 20 | 2,074 | D +22.5 |
| Stewart County | 1,291 | 651 | 20 | 1,962 | D +32.6 |
| Glascock County | 116 | 1,315 | 15 | 1,446 | R +83.0 |
| Chattahoochee County | 695 | 729 | 14 | 1,438 | R +2.3 |
| Baker County | 594 | 741 | 14 | 1,349 | R +10.9 |
| Clay County | 749 | 546 | 13 | 1,308 | D +15.5 |
| Echols County | 124 | 1,105 | 12 | 1,241 | R +79.1 |
| Webster County | 523 | 679 | 12 | 1,214 | R +12.9 |
| Quitman County | 471 | 566 | 11 | 1,048 | R +9.1 |
| Taliaferro County | 510 | 297 | 8 | 815 | D +26.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +10.9 and R +2.6. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +4.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +5.7 |
| Blend of every leg | D +5.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +5.8 |
| With polls, 27% weight | D +4.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +10.9 and R +2.6.
Polls of the race
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | McLaurin | Dolezal | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 755 LV | 2026-10-17 | 46.6 | 47.3 | R +0.7 |
| State Navigate | 448 LV | 2026-07-13 | 48 | 44 | D +4.0 |