2026 forecast · North Dakota Public Service Commission, Two-Year Unexpired Term
Jill Kringstad is all but certain to win North Dakota's public service commission, two-year unexpired term race.
Scot Kelsh vs Jill Kringstad, with Jill Kringstad running again. The model has Kringstad ahead by 22.9 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +22.9Updated October 22, 2026
Scot Kelsh
Democrat
37.3%
100,874 projected votes
Jill Kringstad
Republican
60.2%
162,759 projected votes
100%Kringstad
0%Kelsh
Kringstad all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Kringstad wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Kelsh +5,684 net votes from 3 countiesStatewide R +22.9, a 61,889 vote marginKringstad +67,573 net votes from 50 counties
Projected statewide vote
270,170 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jill Kringstad R | 162,759 | 60.2% |
| Scot Kelsh D | 100,874 | 37.3% |
| Other candidates | 6,537 | 2.4% |
| Total | 270,170 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
53 counties| County | Kelsh | Kringstad | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100,869 | 162,758 | 6,543 | 270,170 | R +22.9 |
| Cass County | 34,889 | 31,198 | 1,638 | 67,725 | D +5.5 |
| Burleigh County | 11,678 | 22,237 | 841 | 34,756 | R +30.4 |
| Grand Forks County | 12,106 | 13,134 | 626 | 25,866 | R +4.0 |
| Ward County | 7,414 | 15,576 | 571 | 23,561 | R +34.6 |
| Williams County | 2,471 | 9,657 | 301 | 12,429 | R +57.8 |
| Morton County | 3,311 | 8,130 | 283 | 11,724 | R +41.1 |
| Stark County | 2,299 | 8,284 | 262 | 10,845 | R +55.2 |
| Stutsman County | 2,579 | 4,981 | 188 | 7,748 | R +31.0 |
| Richland County | 2,145 | 3,558 | 142 | 5,845 | R +24.2 |
| McKenzie County | 862 | 3,473 | 107 | 4,442 | R +58.8 |
| Ramsey County | 1,413 | 2,484 | 97 | 3,994 | R +26.8 |
| Barnes County | 1,488 | 2,309 | 94 | 3,891 | R +21.1 |
| Rolette County | 2,497 | 1,051 | 88 | 3,636 | D +39.8 |
| Walsh County | 1,164 | 2,332 | 86 | 3,582 | R +32.6 |
| McLean County | 912 | 2,493 | 84 | 3,489 | R +45.3 |
| Mountrail County | 1,049 | 1,913 | 74 | 3,036 | R +28.5 |
| Mercer County | 563 | 2,242 | 70 | 2,875 | R +58.4 |
| Traill County | 1,110 | 1,590 | 67 | 2,767 | R +17.3 |
| Pembina County | 679 | 1,653 | 57 | 2,389 | R +40.8 |
| Bottineau County | 606 | 1,575 | 54 | 2,235 | R +43.4 |
| Ransom County | 847 | 1,097 | 48 | 1,992 | R +12.6 |
| McHenry County | 409 | 1,324 | 43 | 1,776 | R +51.5 |
| Benson County | 821 | 874 | 42 | 1,737 | R +3.0 |
| Dickey County | 497 | 1,176 | 41 | 1,714 | R +39.6 |
| LaMoure County | 394 | 1,000 | 34 | 1,428 | R +42.4 |
| Pierce County | 396 | 968 | 35 | 1,399 | R +40.9 |
| Sargent County | 547 | 782 | 34 | 1,363 | R +17.2 |
| Dunn County | 262 | 1,049 | 33 | 1,344 | R +58.6 |
| Wells County | 310 | 999 | 32 | 1,341 | R +51.4 |
| Cavalier County | 389 | 857 | 30 | 1,276 | R +36.7 |
| Foster County | 302 | 851 | 29 | 1,182 | R +46.4 |
| Emmons County | 166 | 974 | 28 | 1,168 | R +69.2 |
| Sioux County | 815 | 268 | 27 | 1,110 | D +49.2 |
| Nelson County | 429 | 620 | 27 | 1,076 | R +17.8 |
| Bowman County | 169 | 792 | 23 | 984 | R +63.3 |
| McIntosh County | 195 | 698 | 22 | 915 | R +55.0 |
| Hettinger County | 171 | 699 | 22 | 892 | R +59.2 |
| Kidder County | 183 | 630 | 21 | 834 | R +53.6 |
| Eddy County | 273 | 529 | 19 | 821 | R +31.1 |
| Renville County | 161 | 636 | 20 | 817 | R +58.1 |
| Griggs County | 237 | 545 | 20 | 802 | R +38.4 |
| Grant County | 159 | 613 | 20 | 792 | R +57.4 |
| Divide County | 212 | 555 | 20 | 787 | R +43.6 |
| Adams County | 173 | 556 | 18 | 747 | R +51.4 |
| Burke County | 116 | 575 | 17 | 708 | R +64.8 |
| Towner County | 230 | 456 | 17 | 703 | R +32.2 |
| Logan County | 99 | 533 | 16 | 648 | R +66.9 |
| Steele County | 275 | 344 | 16 | 635 | R +10.9 |
| Oliver County | 115 | 483 | 15 | 613 | R +60.0 |
| Golden Valley County | 95 | 467 | 15 | 577 | R +64.5 |
| Sheridan County | 87 | 389 | 12 | 488 | R +61.9 |
| Billings County | 67 | 300 | 9 | 376 | R +61.7 |
| Slope County | 33 | 249 | 8 | 290 | R +74.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +13.7 and R +32.1. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket | R +18.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +26.2 |
| Blend of every leg | R +20.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +23.5 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +22.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +13.7 and R +32.1.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Kelsh | Kringstad | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||