2026 forecast · Texas Senate
James Talarico is slightly favored to win Texas's Senate seat.
James Talarico vs Ken Paxton. The model has Talarico ahead by 1.9 points, winning 65 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Toss upModel D +1.9Polls D +1.2Updated October 22, 2026
James Talarico
Democrat
49.7%
4,969,761 projected votes
Ken Paxton
Republican
47.8%
4,780,439 projected votes
65%Talarico
35%Paxton
Talarico slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Talarico wins about 65 of 100
RatingToss up65% chance for Talarico
Model marginD +1.9Polls D +1.2
80 percent rangeD +8.1 to R +4.52,000 simulations
Projected votes10,000,205Talarico 49.7%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Talarico +1,497,495 net votes from 33 countiesStatewide D +1.8, a 182,983 vote marginPaxton +1,314,512 net votes from 221 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
James TalaricoDemocrat · 65% to win
3040506070
49.7%
Ken PaxtonRepublican · 35% to win
3040506070
47.8%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
10,000,205 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| James Talarico D | 4,969,761 | 49.7% |
| Ken Paxton R | 4,780,439 | 47.8% |
| Ted Brown L | 176,004 | 1.8% |
| Other / write-in O | 74,002 | 0.7% |
| Total | 10,000,205 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +8.1 and R +4.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanyOct 19 · 1,398 LV · A++16%Even
InsiderAdvantageOct 14 · 800 LV · A+ · R lean, 4.5 off15%Talarico +3.5
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanySep 28 · 881 LV · A++14%Talarico +2.0
Quantus InsightsOct 11 · 839 LV · Gold14%Paxton +0.5
New York Times/SienaSep 30 · 600 LV · Gold7.7%Talarico +6.0
CBS News/YouGovOct 16 · 1,458 LV · C6.0%Talarico +2.0
Every other poll together: 28%
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +1.2 | |
| CBS News/YouGov | 1,458 LV | 0d | D +1.1 |
| On Point Polling | 385 LV | 0d | D +5.8 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 1,398 LV | 0d | R +0.3 |
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 1d | D +3.8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 800 LV | 1d | R +0.9 |
| University of Houston Hobby School | 2,000 LV | 1d | D +2.0 |
| Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies | 934 LV | 2d | D +5.0 |
| Marist University | 950 LV | 4d | R +0.1 |
| Quantus Insights | 839 LV | 4d | D +1.3 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 617 LV | 7d | D +3.3 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,086 LV | 7d | D +4.2 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 1,000 LV | 10d | D +2.9 |
| YouGov | 3,625 LV | 10d | D +5.1 |
| New York Times/Siena | 615 LV | 15d | D +5.3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1,128 LV | 16d | D +0.5 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 881 LV | 17d | D +1.7 |
| Guidant Polling for Public First Action | 800 LV | 17d | D +2.4 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 850 LV | 17d | R +0.8 |
| Pulse Decision Science (R) | 800 LV | 18d | R +0.6 |
| Big Data Poll | 698 LV | 19d | D +2.0 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) | 856 LV | 21d | D +1.9 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | 1,007 LV | 23d | D +3.4 |
| Marist University | 1,139 RV | 25d | D +3.6 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,800 LV | 26d | D +1.5 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,079 LV | 28d | D +2.2 |
Model margin
Talarico +1.9
Chance of winning
James Talarico65%
Ken Paxton35%
Simulated vote
James Talarico49.7%
Ken Paxton47.8%
Ted Brown1.8%
Other / write-in0.7%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +13.9
FundamentalsD +0.1
With pollsD +1.7
Early vote turnoutD +0.2
With early voteD +1.9
Read from 731,837 ballots cast so far in Texas, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
48 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
James Talarico27
- Barack Obamasource
- David MaxwellPaxton's former director of law enforcementsource
- Adam KinzingerFormer U.S. Rep. (R-IL), Texas residentsource
- Tom PhillipsRetired Texas Supreme Court chief justice (R)source
- Steve BartlettFormer Dallas mayor and U.S. Rep. (R)source
- Kamala HarrisFormer Vice Presidentsource
- Colin AllredFormer U.S. Rep., TX-32source
- Christian MenefeeU.S. Rep., TX-18source
On the air
Harry Enten: Broke down unusual Democratic strength in Texas beyond Talarico, citing a 20 point shift on the statewide House ballot and a big Hispanic swing. source
Harry Enten: Said a Talarico win would give Democrats a 78% chance of winning the Senate and showed Talarico with a 70% chance to win Texas. source
Harry Enten: Highlighted James Talarico leading by 2 points in Texas, calling it a possibly historic year for Democrats in the South. source
Karl Rove: Said Talarico would win if the election were held now and Paxton loses if he will not debate. source
Karl Rove: On Fox News Radio said Trump expects Paxton to lose and is looking for someone to blame, adding I really don't care. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Talarico | Paxton |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 45.6 | 51.8 |
| Women | 51% | 53.0 | 44.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 51.5 | 45.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 24% | 47.7 | 49.7 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 49.4 | 48.1 |
| 65+ | 27% | 49.6 | 48.0 |
| RaceWhite | 52% | 34.5 | 63.1 |
| Black | 13% | 78.1 | 19.6 |
| Latino | 27% | 58.8 | 38.5 |
| Asian and other | 7% | 68.2 | 28.9 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 25% | 28.9 | 68.8 |
| White women | 27% | 39.8 | 57.8 |
| Black men | 7% | 74.4 | 23.2 |
| Black women | 7% | 81.6 | 16.1 |
| Latino men | 14% | 56.2 | 41.1 |
| Latino women | 13% | 61.5 | 35.8 |
| All other races | 7% | 68.2 | 28.9 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Talarico | Paxton | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,966,407 | 4,783,424 | 250,374 | 10,000,205 | D +1.8 |
| Harris County | 837,853 | 517,990 | 31,919 | 1,387,762 | D +22.8 |
| Dallas County | 534,606 | 224,227 | 17,864 | 776,697 | D +39.8 |
| Tarrant County | 385,900 | 315,542 | 17,985 | 719,427 | D +9.6 |
| Bexar County | 429,790 | 237,069 | 18,505 | 685,364 | D +27.9 |
| Travis County | 413,253 | 119,863 | 18,763 | 551,879 | D +53.2 |
| Collin County | 221,454 | 207,547 | 9,651 | 438,652 | D +2.8 |
| Denton County | 183,217 | 187,480 | 10,287 | 380,984 | R +1.5 |
| Fort Bend County | 175,161 | 125,392 | 6,761 | 307,314 | D +15.9 |
| Williamson County | 144,353 | 113,694 | 8,255 | 266,302 | D +11.3 |
| Montgomery County | 80,282 | 167,730 | 5,579 | 253,591 | R +34.9 |
| El Paso County | 156,546 | 66,421 | 10,018 | 232,985 | D +38.4 |
| Hidalgo County | 116,729 | 73,263 | 5,473 | 195,465 | D +22.1 |
| Brazoria County | 58,623 | 73,800 | 3,395 | 135,818 | R +11.4 |
| Galveston County | 56,292 | 75,292 | 3,374 | 134,958 | R +14.3 |
| Bell County | 55,694 | 55,516 | 2,851 | 114,061 | R +0.1 |
| Nueces County | 58,321 | 51,361 | 3,043 | 112,725 | D +5.9 |
| Hays County | 62,965 | 42,903 | 3,954 | 109,822 | D +18.1 |
| Lubbock County | 39,497 | 65,919 | 2,814 | 108,230 | R +24.8 |
| Cameron County | 60,993 | 40,820 | 3,474 | 105,287 | D +18.9 |
| Smith County | 28,586 | 59,487 | 1,615 | 89,688 | R +34.8 |
| McLennan County | 36,361 | 50,249 | 2,039 | 88,649 | R +16.0 |
| Comal County | 27,144 | 56,890 | 2,155 | 86,189 | R +34.8 |
| Ellis County | 28,380 | 50,669 | 1,861 | 80,910 | R +27.7 |
| Brazos County | 35,484 | 42,778 | 2,337 | 80,599 | R +9.4 |
| Jefferson County | 40,070 | 35,440 | 1,228 | 76,738 | D +5.8 |
| Parker County | 14,197 | 57,997 | 1,699 | 73,893 | R +59.5 |
| Guadalupe County | 28,202 | 40,038 | 1,750 | 69,990 | R +17.3 |
| Johnson County | 18,580 | 48,095 | 1,570 | 68,245 | R +43.4 |
| Webb County | 37,484 | 19,958 | 2,770 | 60,212 | D +29.0 |
| Randall County | 13,802 | 41,923 | 1,253 | 56,978 | R +49.7 |
| Kaufman County | 19,613 | 34,740 | 1,109 | 55,462 | R +27.5 |
| Grayson County | 14,053 | 39,541 | 1,094 | 54,688 | R +46.8 |
| Rockwall County | 16,387 | 33,507 | 1,123 | 51,017 | R +34.0 |
| Midland County | 12,065 | 37,186 | 1,160 | 50,411 | R +50.2 |
| Taylor County | 14,710 | 32,940 | 1,222 | 48,872 | R +37.7 |
| Gregg County | 13,580 | 26,360 | 691 | 40,631 | R +31.7 |
| Wichita County | 14,256 | 25,269 | 972 | 40,497 | R +27.5 |
| Tom Green County | 12,488 | 26,530 | 960 | 39,978 | R +35.6 |
| Hunt County | 9,172 | 28,460 | 885 | 38,517 | R +50.2 |
| Ector County | 10,564 | 24,518 | 863 | 35,945 | R +39.2 |
| Bastrop County | 16,205 | 17,862 | 1,199 | 35,266 | R +4.9 |
| Henderson County | 6,844 | 26,040 | 637 | 33,521 | R +57.5 |
| Bowie County | 11,632 | 19,971 | 711 | 32,314 | R +26.3 |
| Hood County | 6,692 | 23,856 | 656 | 31,204 | R +55.1 |
| Orange County | 6,091 | 24,216 | 555 | 30,862 | R +58.8 |
| Wise County | 5,044 | 25,070 | 709 | 30,823 | R +65.0 |
| Victoria County | 10,440 | 19,721 | 616 | 30,777 | R +30.4 |
| Angelina County | 9,058 | 20,086 | 564 | 29,708 | R +37.4 |
| Potter County | 10,373 | 18,318 | 826 | 29,517 | R +27.3 |
| Liberty County | 5,737 | 20,126 | 636 | 26,499 | R +54.5 |
| Harrison County | 7,509 | 17,738 | 411 | 25,658 | R +40.0 |
| Kerr County | 6,698 | 17,802 | 602 | 25,102 | R +44.5 |
| Kendall County | 5,905 | 18,292 | 519 | 24,716 | R +50.5 |
| Van Zandt County | 3,560 | 20,454 | 416 | 24,430 | R +69.3 |
| Walker County | 8,683 | 14,928 | 605 | 24,216 | R +26.1 |
| Burnet County | 6,081 | 17,245 | 573 | 23,899 | R +47.0 |
| Hardin County | 3,575 | 19,613 | 401 | 23,589 | R +68.0 |
| Coryell County | 8,116 | 13,984 | 636 | 22,736 | R +26.1 |
| Nacogdoches County | 8,225 | 14,002 | 477 | 22,704 | R +25.8 |
| Wilson County | 6,400 | 15,529 | 470 | 22,399 | R +40.9 |
| San Patricio County | 8,603 | 13,130 | 557 | 22,290 | R +20.6 |
| Waller County | 9,100 | 12,028 | 431 | 21,559 | R +13.8 |
| Wood County | 3,816 | 17,042 | 339 | 21,197 | R +62.5 |
| Medina County | 6,943 | 13,386 | 394 | 20,723 | R +31.4 |
| Polk County | 4,977 | 15,065 | 451 | 20,493 | R +49.4 |
| Chambers County | 4,097 | 14,854 | 427 | 19,378 | R +55.7 |
| Rusk County | 4,621 | 13,968 | 264 | 18,853 | R +49.8 |
| Lamar County | 4,364 | 13,980 | 336 | 18,680 | R +51.7 |
| Anderson County | 4,104 | 13,705 | 401 | 18,210 | R +53.0 |
| Cherokee County | 4,013 | 13,357 | 300 | 17,670 | R +53.0 |
| Cooke County | 3,124 | 14,048 | 351 | 17,523 | R +62.6 |
| Navarro County | 4,905 | 11,991 | 345 | 17,241 | R +41.4 |
| Upshur County | 3,041 | 13,497 | 355 | 16,893 | R +62.0 |
| Erath County | 3,003 | 12,665 | 369 | 16,037 | R +60.4 |
| Washington County | 4,031 | 11,581 | 270 | 15,882 | R +47.8 |
| Atascosa County | 5,513 | 9,857 | 362 | 15,732 | R +27.8 |
| Brown County | 2,261 | 12,222 | 341 | 14,824 | R +67.4 |
| Caldwell County | 7,204 | 6,956 | 437 | 14,597 | D +1.3 |
| Gillespie County | 3,203 | 10,888 | 376 | 14,467 | R +53.3 |
| Wharton County | 4,380 | 9,788 | 231 | 14,399 | R +38.0 |
| Hopkins County | 3,317 | 10,730 | 257 | 14,304 | R +51.9 |
| Starr County | 8,352 | 5,404 | 499 | 14,255 | D +20.5 |
| Fannin County | 2,449 | 11,329 | 310 | 14,088 | R +63.2 |
| Hill County | 3,082 | 10,645 | 280 | 14,007 | R +54.1 |
| Jasper County | 2,847 | 10,340 | 201 | 13,388 | R +56.1 |
| Maverick County | 7,040 | 5,555 | 511 | 13,106 | D +11.3 |
| Austin County | 2,846 | 9,856 | 246 | 12,948 | R +54.5 |
| Val Verde County | 5,939 | 6,370 | 368 | 12,677 | R +3.5 |
| Jim Wells County | 6,149 | 5,665 | 266 | 12,080 | D +3.8 |
| Llano County | 2,848 | 8,974 | 241 | 12,063 | R +50.8 |
| Cass County | 2,610 | 9,161 | 191 | 11,962 | R +54.9 |
| Matagorda County | 3,465 | 8,030 | 258 | 11,753 | R +39.0 |
| Grimes County | 2,541 | 8,915 | 258 | 11,714 | R +54.5 |
| Fayette County | 2,673 | 8,770 | 186 | 11,629 | R +52.6 |
| Bandera County | 2,439 | 8,817 | 337 | 11,593 | R +55.1 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,926 | 9,170 | 250 | 11,346 | R +63.8 |
| Aransas County | 2,857 | 8,226 | 261 | 11,344 | R +47.4 |
| San Jacinto County | 2,514 | 8,398 | 268 | 11,180 | R +52.6 |
| Milam County | 2,668 | 6,890 | 186 | 9,744 | R +43.3 |
| Panola County | 2,006 | 7,529 | 115 | 9,650 | R +57.4 |
| Lampasas County | 2,210 | 7,219 | 212 | 9,641 | R +52.0 |
| Kleberg County | 4,942 | 4,289 | 275 | 9,506 | D +6.7 |
| Montague County | 1,154 | 7,913 | 185 | 9,252 | R +73.1 |
| Lavaca County | 1,412 | 7,590 | 128 | 9,130 | R +67.6 |
| Titus County | 2,361 | 6,429 | 152 | 8,942 | R +45.9 |
| Uvalde County | 3,665 | 4,896 | 220 | 8,781 | R +14.2 |
| Howard County | 2,136 | 6,341 | 199 | 8,676 | R +48.6 |
| Colorado County | 2,224 | 6,190 | 180 | 8,594 | R +46.3 |
| Bee County | 3,200 | 5,165 | 206 | 8,571 | R +23.0 |
| Shelby County | 1,945 | 6,414 | 102 | 8,461 | R +52.9 |
| Tyler County | 1,431 | 6,785 | 194 | 8,410 | R +63.6 |
| Houston County | 2,301 | 5,980 | 126 | 8,407 | R +44.0 |
| Hale County | 2,139 | 6,099 | 160 | 8,398 | R +47.5 |
| Bosque County | 1,672 | 6,496 | 175 | 8,343 | R +57.5 |
| Limestone County | 2,174 | 5,704 | 144 | 8,022 | R +44.0 |
| Burleson County | 1,556 | 6,130 | 157 | 7,843 | R +58.2 |
| Freestone County | 1,545 | 6,121 | 133 | 7,799 | R +58.5 |
| Leon County | 954 | 6,590 | 123 | 7,667 | R +73.5 |
| Eastland County | 1,024 | 6,102 | 145 | 7,271 | R +69.7 |
| Lee County | 1,623 | 5,445 | 159 | 7,227 | R +52.9 |
| Young County | 1,021 | 6,040 | 144 | 7,205 | R +69.7 |
| Hutchinson County | 922 | 6,124 | 151 | 7,197 | R +72.2 |
| Blanco County | 1,868 | 5,029 | 192 | 7,089 | R +44.6 |
| DeWitt County | 1,472 | 5,499 | 106 | 7,077 | R +57.0 |
| Robertson County | 2,082 | 4,702 | 131 | 6,915 | R +37.9 |
| Calhoun County | 2,034 | 4,680 | 144 | 6,858 | R +38.6 |
| Hockley County | 1,465 | 5,212 | 129 | 6,806 | R +55.3 |
| Gray County | 797 | 5,826 | 142 | 6,765 | R +74.2 |
| Gonzales County | 1,680 | 4,793 | 118 | 6,591 | R +47.5 |
| Jones County | 1,122 | 5,187 | 135 | 6,444 | R +63.0 |
| Trinity County | 1,385 | 4,778 | 113 | 6,276 | R +53.9 |
| Callahan County | 784 | 5,189 | 128 | 6,101 | R +72.2 |
| Falls County | 1,927 | 3,703 | 86 | 5,716 | R +31.1 |
| Rains County | 910 | 4,693 | 109 | 5,712 | R +65.8 |
| Comanche County | 896 | 4,577 | 117 | 5,590 | R +65.7 |
| Jackson County | 1,063 | 4,363 | 88 | 5,514 | R +59.7 |
| Willacy County | 3,159 | 2,024 | 165 | 5,348 | D +21.1 |
| Gaines County | 501 | 4,558 | 88 | 5,147 | R +78.7 |
| Scurry County | 801 | 4,183 | 96 | 5,080 | R +66.3 |
| Clay County | 693 | 4,272 | 96 | 5,061 | R +70.4 |
| Newton County | 1,266 | 3,687 | 96 | 5,049 | R +47.7 |
| Red River County | 1,233 | 3,669 | 75 | 4,977 | R +48.8 |
| Andrews County | 779 | 4,077 | 104 | 4,960 | R +66.2 |
| Sabine County | 736 | 4,064 | 69 | 4,869 | R +68.3 |
| Madison County | 1,053 | 3,583 | 90 | 4,726 | R +53.3 |
| Frio County | 2,399 | 2,206 | 108 | 4,713 | D +3.9 |
| Karnes County | 1,270 | 3,363 | 80 | 4,713 | R +44.4 |
| Morris County | 1,444 | 3,155 | 74 | 4,673 | R +36.5 |
| Nolan County | 1,130 | 3,417 | 98 | 4,645 | R +49.0 |
| Camp County | 1,234 | 3,256 | 73 | 4,563 | R +44.3 |
| Moore County | 930 | 3,534 | 96 | 4,560 | R +57.3 |
| Franklin County | 848 | 3,598 | 77 | 4,523 | R +60.7 |
| Somervell County | 898 | 3,489 | 95 | 4,482 | R +57.5 |
| Live Oak County | 855 | 3,531 | 80 | 4,466 | R +59.7 |
| Archer County | 555 | 3,682 | 73 | 4,310 | R +72.2 |
| Brewster County | 2,185 | 1,902 | 161 | 4,248 | D +6.6 |
| Pecos County | 1,398 | 2,616 | 124 | 4,138 | R +29.4 |
| Marion County | 1,181 | 2,784 | 72 | 4,037 | R +39.7 |
| Wilbarger County | 969 | 2,997 | 65 | 4,031 | R +50.1 |
| Zapata County | 2,189 | 1,677 | 116 | 3,982 | D +12.9 |
| Duval County | 2,324 | 1,486 | 134 | 3,944 | D +21.3 |
| Deaf Smith County | 1,096 | 2,735 | 90 | 3,921 | R +41.8 |
| Hamilton County | 657 | 3,103 | 89 | 3,849 | R +63.4 |
| Lamb County | 807 | 2,787 | 77 | 3,671 | R +53.7 |
| Runnels County | 518 | 3,053 | 69 | 3,640 | R +69.2 |
| Coleman County | 479 | 3,077 | 61 | 3,617 | R +71.7 |
| Jack County | 350 | 3,119 | 53 | 3,522 | R +78.4 |
| Goliad County | 864 | 2,567 | 84 | 3,515 | R +48.3 |
| Stephens County | 363 | 2,948 | 40 | 3,351 | R +76.9 |
| San Augustine County | 916 | 2,331 | 50 | 3,297 | R +42.5 |
| Dawson County | 751 | 2,377 | 67 | 3,195 | R +50.5 |
| Dimmit County | 2,004 | 1,063 | 66 | 3,133 | D +30.0 |
| Ward County | 665 | 2,390 | 72 | 3,127 | R +54.5 |
| Terry County | 707 | 2,335 | 75 | 3,117 | R +52.3 |
| Zavala County | 2,124 | 876 | 83 | 3,083 | D +40.3 |
| McCulloch County | 506 | 2,433 | 72 | 3,011 | R +63.5 |
| Reeves County | 1,355 | 1,533 | 99 | 2,987 | R +5.7 |
| Carson County | 302 | 2,332 | 49 | 2,683 | R +75.3 |
| Refugio County | 941 | 1,656 | 64 | 2,661 | R +26.7 |
| Ochiltree County | 286 | 2,233 | 36 | 2,555 | R +75.9 |
| Mitchell County | 397 | 1,984 | 54 | 2,435 | R +65.1 |
| San Saba County | 303 | 2,065 | 29 | 2,397 | R +72.8 |
| Brooks County | 1,527 | 739 | 95 | 2,361 | D +33.4 |
| Mills County | 273 | 1,996 | 40 | 2,309 | R +73.8 |
| Delta County | 430 | 1,787 | 47 | 2,264 | R +59.6 |
| Parmer County | 434 | 1,789 | 34 | 2,257 | R +59.5 |
| Mason County | 474 | 1,669 | 44 | 2,187 | R +54.2 |
| Childress County | 296 | 1,753 | 42 | 2,091 | R +68.8 |
| Kimble County | 285 | 1,767 | 35 | 2,087 | R +70.5 |
| Lynn County | 418 | 1,622 | 35 | 2,075 | R +57.5 |
| Swisher County | 496 | 1,519 | 52 | 2,067 | R +49.4 |
| Haskell County | 384 | 1,612 | 26 | 2,022 | R +59.8 |
| La Salle County | 1,017 | 931 | 56 | 2,004 | D +4.8 |
| Yoakum County | 354 | 1,603 | 38 | 1,995 | R +62.2 |
| Wheeler County | 182 | 1,737 | 32 | 1,951 | R +78.8 |
| Presidio County | 1,379 | 469 | 65 | 1,913 | D +47.4 |
| Castro County | 453 | 1,350 | 35 | 1,838 | R +47.9 |
| Hartley County | 199 | 1,590 | 27 | 1,816 | R +76.1 |
| Floyd County | 378 | 1,323 | 28 | 1,729 | R +54.4 |
| Winkler County | 344 | 1,337 | 39 | 1,720 | R +56.8 |
| Hansford County | 156 | 1,536 | 26 | 1,718 | R +79.8 |
| Martin County | 266 | 1,412 | 38 | 1,716 | R +66.1 |
| Bailey County | 400 | 1,231 | 28 | 1,659 | R +49.5 |
| Crosby County | 488 | 1,066 | 32 | 1,586 | R +35.5 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,043 | 495 | 36 | 1,574 | D +34.7 |
| Real County | 283 | 1,256 | 29 | 1,568 | R +61.5 |
| Coke County | 186 | 1,330 | 38 | 1,554 | R +73.1 |
| Fisher County | 354 | 1,172 | 28 | 1,554 | R +51.4 |
| Baylor County | 200 | 1,259 | 31 | 1,490 | R +70.0 |
| Garza County | 260 | 1,188 | 17 | 1,465 | R +62.2 |
| Shackelford County | 151 | 1,278 | 17 | 1,446 | R +77.7 |
| Hemphill County | 206 | 1,194 | 30 | 1,430 | R +68.5 |
| Donley County | 179 | 1,218 | 28 | 1,425 | R +71.6 |
| Dallam County | 191 | 1,145 | 31 | 1,367 | R +69.0 |
| Kinney County | 386 | 867 | 40 | 1,293 | R +36.6 |
| Crockett County | 340 | 868 | 32 | 1,240 | R +41.5 |
| Hardeman County | 213 | 990 | 14 | 1,217 | R +62.6 |
| Crane County | 212 | 970 | 33 | 1,215 | R +61.3 |
| Sutton County | 258 | 941 | 16 | 1,215 | R +54.4 |
| Knox County | 240 | 923 | 16 | 1,179 | R +56.9 |
| Upton County | 159 | 942 | 28 | 1,129 | R +67.7 |
| Concho County | 196 | 908 | 23 | 1,127 | R +61.6 |
| Lipscomb County | 119 | 937 | 21 | 1,077 | R +74.4 |
| Jeff Davis County | 464 | 548 | 41 | 1,053 | R +7.6 |
| Hall County | 169 | 842 | 13 | 1,024 | R +63.8 |
| Collingsworth County | 148 | 856 | 17 | 1,021 | R +68.2 |
| Schleicher County | 209 | 772 | 24 | 1,005 | R +54.5 |
| Armstrong County | 79 | 856 | 23 | 958 | R +79.8 |
| Hudspeth County | 337 | 557 | 42 | 936 | R +21.9 |
| Menard County | 182 | 675 | 15 | 872 | R +55.5 |
| Dickens County | 160 | 664 | 14 | 838 | R +59.0 |
| Oldham County | 78 | 725 | 14 | 817 | R +77.1 |
| Reagan County | 148 | 643 | 19 | 810 | R +59.5 |
| Sherman County | 69 | 721 | 12 | 802 | R +80.5 |
| Throckmorton County | 80 | 670 | 11 | 761 | R +76.3 |
| Culberson County | 370 | 341 | 26 | 737 | D +3.8 |
| Cochran County | 154 | 558 | 16 | 728 | R +54.3 |
| Irion County | 108 | 584 | 12 | 704 | R +66.1 |
| Edwards County | 111 | 526 | 17 | 654 | R +61.4 |
| Briscoe County | 68 | 555 | 8 | 631 | R +74.5 |
| Stonewall County | 117 | 475 | 9 | 601 | R +57.8 |
| Motley County | 46 | 519 | 7 | 572 | R +82.1 |
| Cottle County | 102 | 449 | 12 | 563 | R +59.2 |
| Glasscock County | 36 | 502 | 8 | 546 | R +84.5 |
| Foard County | 112 | 381 | 9 | 502 | R +49.0 |
| Sterling County | 42 | 453 | 7 | 502 | R +80.6 |
| Roberts County | 18 | 406 | 6 | 430 | R +89.8 |
| Terrell County | 109 | 266 | 12 | 387 | R +38.1 |
| Kent County | 48 | 320 | 6 | 374 | R +68.9 |
| Borden County | 16 | 300 | 5 | 321 | R +87.6 |
| McMullen County | 26 | 236 | 5 | 267 | R +76.4 |
| King County | 5 | 102 | 1 | 108 | R +88.4 |
| Kenedy County | 22 | 42 | 2 | 66 | R +22.1 |
| Loving County | 2 | 22 | 1 | 25 | R +72.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.