2026 state legislative forecast
Michigan House forecast
Democrats win control of the Michigan House in 94% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 110 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 5 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
94%D4%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
57 to 68Median 62 ยท 56 for a majority
Favored to flip
10to D0to R
After 2024: 52 D, 58 R
Environment
D +12.3Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Michigan House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 62 D to 48 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | James Desana 2024 | Darian Counts vs James DeSana | R +12.7 | R +0.6 | 45% | 20,064 | 20,294 | 40,973 | Toss up |
| 28 | Jamie Thompson 2024 | Sherry Berecz vs Jamie Thompson | R +12.5 | D +1.2 | 57% | 21,732 | 21,225 | 43,611 | Toss up |
| 86 | Nancy Deboer 2024 | Joseph Mcclusky vs Nancy Deboer | R +0.3 | D +1.4 | 57% | 21,043 | 20,470 | 42,145 | Toss up |
| 62 | Alicia St Germaine 2024 | Matthew Smith vs Alicia St. Germaine | R +11.1 | R +1.8 | 38% | 22,320 | 23,125 | 46,137 | Toss up |
| 42 | Matt Hall 2024 | Nick Rowe vs Matt Hall | R +9.0 | R +1.8 | 39% | 22,742 | 23,576 | 47,024 | Toss up |
| 88 | Greg Vanwoerkom 2024 | Kiel Reid vs Greg Vanwoerkom | R +8.3 | R +2.6 | 34% | 24,241 | 25,561 | 50,561 | Lean R |
| 58 | Ron Robinson 2024 | Katrina Manetta vs Ron Robinson | R +13.2 | D +2.7 | 66% | 20,991 | 19,879 | 41,493 | Lean D |
| 68 | David W Martin 2024 | Matt Schlinker vs David Martin | R +9.3 | D +2.8 | 67% | 23,961 | 22,669 | 47,340 | Lean D |
| 57 | Thomas E Kuhn 2024 | Tom Turner vs Thomas Kuhn | R +18.2 | R +2.9 | 33% | 19,551 | 20,723 | 40,887 | Lean R |
| 92 | Jerry Neyer 2024 | Luke Del Castillo vs Jerry Neyer | R +12.5 | R +4.0 | 27% | 17,172 | 18,618 | 36,335 | Lean R |
| 49 | Ann Bollin 2024 | Dan Pelchat vs Ann Bollin | R +10.0 | R +4.3 | 25% | 22,822 | 24,888 | 48,436 | Lean R |
| 96 | Timothy Beson 2024 | Christopher Girard vs Timothy Beson | R +12.2 | R +5.0 | 21% | 21,004 | 23,215 | 44,892 | Lean R |
| 55 | Mark Tisdel 2024 | Alex Hawkins vs Mark Tisdel | R +0.7 | D +5.3 | 78% | 24,313 | 21,887 | 46,903 | Lean D |
| 27 | Rylee Linting 2024 | Jaime Churches vs Rylee Linting | R +8.6 | D +5.3 | 76% | 23,869 | 21,479 | 46,038 | Lean D |
| 54 | Donni Steele 2024 | Sarah Pounds vs Roman Gaskey | R +1.0 | D +6.1 | 80% | 25,051 | 22,175 | 47,946 | Likely D |
| 72 | Mike Mueller 2024 | Thomas Ryan vs Mike Mueller | R +14.2 | R +7.0 | 15% | 23,103 | 26,591 | 50,451 | Likely R |
| 46 | Kathy Schmaltz 2024 | Jan Maino vs Kathy Schmaltz | R +2.2 | D +7.3 | 85% | 18,974 | 16,389 | 35,901 | Likely D |
| 109 | Karl Bohnak 2024 | Anna Rink vs Karl Bohnak | R +0.6 | D +7.9 | 88% | 23,513 | 20,066 | 44,242 | Likely D |
| 44 | Steve Frisbie 2024 | Jim Haadsma vs Steve Frisbie | R +3.9 | D +8.7 | 90% | 19,248 | 16,177 | 35,964 | Likely D |
| 107 | Parker Fairbairn 2024 | Melissa Perron vs Parker Fairbairn | R +15.8 | R +9.1 | 9% | 22,180 | 26,599 | 49,522 | Likely R |
| 51 | Matt Maddock 2024 | Stacey McDuffie vs Matt Maddock | R +20.2 | R +9.5 | 8% | 23,062 | 27,898 | 51,735 | Likely R |
| 61 | Denise Mentzer 2024 | Denise Mentzer vs Robert Wojtowicz | R +5.3 | D +10.0 | 93% | 23,693 | 19,393 | 43,741 | Likely D |
| 31 | Reggie Miller 2024 | Shannon Dare Wayne vs Laura Perry | R +2.6 | D +10.4 | 94% | 26,275 | 21,329 | 48,328 | Likely D |
| 52 | Mike Harris 2024 | Brendan Leddy vs Mike Harris | R +17.0 | R +11.4 | 4% | 21,611 | 27,184 | 49,538 | Likely R |
Projected Michigan House vote
110 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 2,515,484 | 52.7% |
| Republicans | 2,183,765 | 45.8% |
| Independents and others | 70,908 | 1.5% |
| Total | 4,770,160 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
Legislative ballot polls
Weight 23%| Pollster | Field end | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications for Michigan TV stations | 2026-10-01 | 49 | 44 |
| Cygnal / Beacon Research for Michigan Enjoyer | 2026-09-21 | 46 | 40 |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.