2026 forecast · Iowa Treasurer
John Norwood is favored to win Iowa's treasurer race.
John Norwood vs Roby Smith, with Roby Smith running again. The model has Norwood ahead by 5.1 points, with a 79 percent chance of winning.
Lean DModel D +5.1Updated October 22, 2026
John Norwood
Democrat
51.6%
707,482 projected votes
Roby Smith
Republican
46.5%
637,921 projected votes
79%Norwood
21%Smith
Norwood favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Norwood wins about 79 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Norwood +186,138 net votes from 17 countiesStatewide D +5.1, a 69,561 vote marginSmith +116,577 net votes from 82 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,371,936 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| John Norwood D | 707,482 | 51.6% |
| Roby Smith R | 637,921 | 46.5% |
| Other candidates | 26,531 | 1.9% |
| Total | 1,371,936 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
99 counties| County | Norwood | Smith | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 707,483 | 637,922 | 26,526 | 1,371,931 | D +5.1 |
| Polk County | 140,387 | 69,807 | 4,145 | 214,339 | D +32.9 |
| Linn County | 64,867 | 36,249 | 1,994 | 103,110 | D +27.8 |
| Scott County | 42,251 | 29,808 | 1,421 | 73,480 | D +16.9 |
| Johnson County | 54,699 | 16,655 | 1,407 | 72,761 | D +52.3 |
| Black Hawk County | 30,929 | 21,442 | 1,033 | 53,404 | D +17.8 |
| Dallas County | 26,779 | 21,974 | 962 | 49,715 | D +9.7 |
| Dubuque County | 23,621 | 19,150 | 843 | 43,614 | D +10.3 |
| Story County | 26,732 | 15,622 | 836 | 43,190 | D +25.7 |
| Pottawattamie County | 17,438 | 17,014 | 679 | 35,131 | D +1.2 |
| Woodbury County | 16,445 | 17,716 | 673 | 34,834 | R +3.6 |
| Warren County | 12,805 | 12,977 | 508 | 26,290 | R +0.7 |
| Clinton County | 9,647 | 9,176 | 371 | 19,194 | D +2.5 |
| Cerro Gordo County | 10,170 | 8,294 | 364 | 18,828 | D +10.0 |
| Jasper County | 7,532 | 8,732 | 322 | 16,586 | R +7.2 |
| Marion County | 5,818 | 9,810 | 308 | 15,936 | R +25.1 |
| Sioux County | 2,593 | 12,981 | 307 | 15,881 | R +65.4 |
| Muscatine County | 7,966 | 7,415 | 303 | 15,684 | D +3.5 |
| Des Moines County | 8,083 | 7,106 | 299 | 15,488 | D +6.3 |
| Marshall County | 7,081 | 6,850 | 275 | 14,206 | D +1.6 |
| Webster County | 5,846 | 7,777 | 269 | 13,892 | R +13.9 |
| Lee County | 6,240 | 6,597 | 253 | 13,090 | R +2.7 |
| Boone County | 6,102 | 6,105 | 241 | 12,448 | Even |
| Benton County | 4,919 | 7,075 | 236 | 12,230 | R +17.6 |
| Wapello County | 5,322 | 6,560 | 234 | 12,116 | R +10.2 |
| Bremer County | 5,723 | 6,131 | 233 | 12,087 | R +3.4 |
| Plymouth County | 3,034 | 7,833 | 214 | 11,081 | R +43.3 |
| Winneshiek County | 5,513 | 4,474 | 197 | 10,184 | D +10.2 |
| Washington County | 4,187 | 5,276 | 187 | 9,650 | R +11.3 |
| Dickinson County | 3,335 | 5,644 | 177 | 9,156 | R +25.2 |
| Mahaska County | 2,587 | 6,378 | 177 | 9,142 | R +41.5 |
| Carroll County | 3,148 | 5,766 | 176 | 9,090 | R +28.8 |
| Jones County | 4,126 | 4,734 | 174 | 9,034 | R +6.7 |
| Buchanan County | 3,889 | 4,832 | 172 | 8,893 | R +10.6 |
| Cedar County | 4,107 | 4,392 | 167 | 8,666 | R +3.3 |
| Jackson County | 3,960 | 4,505 | 167 | 8,632 | R +6.3 |
| Poweshiek County | 4,112 | 4,086 | 162 | 8,360 | D +0.3 |
| Delaware County | 2,900 | 5,210 | 160 | 8,270 | R +27.9 |
| Fayette County | 3,525 | 4,562 | 159 | 8,246 | R +12.6 |
| Madison County | 3,198 | 4,819 | 158 | 8,175 | R +19.8 |
| Iowa County | 3,353 | 4,460 | 154 | 7,967 | R +13.9 |
| Henry County | 3,029 | 4,756 | 153 | 7,938 | R +21.8 |
| Clayton County | 3,207 | 4,475 | 152 | 7,834 | R +16.2 |
| Hardin County | 2,776 | 4,307 | 139 | 7,222 | R +21.2 |
| Tama County | 3,098 | 3,964 | 140 | 7,202 | R +12.0 |
| Clay County | 2,706 | 4,290 | 138 | 7,134 | R +22.2 |
| Jefferson County | 3,988 | 3,003 | 138 | 7,129 | D +13.8 |
| Kossuth County | 2,613 | 4,344 | 137 | 7,094 | R +24.4 |
| Butler County | 2,304 | 4,143 | 127 | 6,574 | R +28.0 |
| Mills County | 2,527 | 3,862 | 125 | 6,514 | R +20.5 |
| Harrison County | 2,286 | 3,901 | 122 | 6,309 | R +25.6 |
| Floyd County | 2,820 | 3,364 | 122 | 6,306 | R +8.6 |
| Hamilton County | 2,795 | 3,368 | 121 | 6,284 | R +9.1 |
| Allamakee County | 2,451 | 3,605 | 120 | 6,176 | R +18.7 |
| Buena Vista County | 2,410 | 3,612 | 120 | 6,142 | R +19.6 |
| O'Brien County | 1,519 | 4,431 | 117 | 6,067 | R +48.0 |
| Page County | 2,059 | 3,803 | 116 | 5,978 | R +29.2 |
| Grundy County | 2,025 | 3,740 | 113 | 5,878 | R +29.2 |
| Cass County | 2,190 | 3,518 | 112 | 5,820 | R +22.8 |
| Lyon County | 998 | 4,433 | 107 | 5,538 | R +62.0 |
| Guthrie County | 2,005 | 3,298 | 104 | 5,407 | R +23.9 |
| Crawford County | 1,934 | 3,272 | 102 | 5,308 | R +25.2 |
| Appanoose County | 1,819 | 3,380 | 102 | 5,301 | R +29.4 |
| Chickasaw County | 2,063 | 3,069 | 102 | 5,234 | R +19.2 |
| Shelby County | 1,730 | 3,392 | 100 | 5,222 | R +31.8 |
| Cherokee County | 1,679 | 3,312 | 99 | 5,090 | R +32.1 |
| Union County | 2,126 | 2,802 | 97 | 5,025 | R +13.4 |
| Hancock County | 1,572 | 3,141 | 93 | 4,806 | R +32.7 |
| Wright County | 1,755 | 2,944 | 93 | 4,792 | R +24.8 |
| Winnebago County | 1,944 | 2,679 | 92 | 4,715 | R +15.6 |
| Mitchell County | 1,863 | 2,734 | 91 | 4,688 | R +18.6 |
| Sac County | 1,297 | 3,056 | 87 | 4,440 | R +39.6 |
| Calhoun County | 1,568 | 2,629 | 83 | 4,280 | R +24.8 |
| Keokuk County | 1,324 | 2,831 | 82 | 4,237 | R +35.6 |
| Humboldt County | 1,313 | 2,792 | 81 | 4,186 | R +35.4 |
| Montgomery County | 1,407 | 2,587 | 78 | 4,072 | R +29.0 |
| Louisa County | 1,656 | 2,307 | 78 | 4,041 | R +16.1 |
| Franklin County | 1,541 | 2,375 | 78 | 3,994 | R +20.9 |
| Palo Alto County | 1,323 | 2,590 | 77 | 3,990 | R +31.7 |
| Greene County | 1,612 | 2,283 | 77 | 3,972 | R +16.9 |
| Emmet County | 1,345 | 2,416 | 74 | 3,835 | R +27.9 |
| Howard County | 1,602 | 2,131 | 73 | 3,806 | R +13.9 |
| Lucas County | 1,374 | 2,335 | 73 | 3,782 | R +25.4 |
| Clarke County | 1,419 | 2,222 | 71 | 3,712 | R +21.6 |
| Monona County | 1,291 | 2,338 | 72 | 3,701 | R +28.3 |
| Worth County | 1,551 | 1,875 | 67 | 3,493 | R +9.3 |
| Adair County | 1,258 | 2,082 | 66 | 3,406 | R +24.2 |
| Davis County | 1,000 | 2,260 | 64 | 3,324 | R +37.9 |
| Monroe County | 1,124 | 2,124 | 64 | 3,312 | R +30.2 |
| Decatur County | 1,051 | 2,033 | 60 | 3,144 | R +31.2 |
| Van Buren County | 983 | 1,995 | 60 | 3,038 | R +33.3 |
| Pocahontas County | 889 | 2,084 | 59 | 3,032 | R +39.4 |
| Ida County | 986 | 1,964 | 58 | 3,008 | R +32.5 |
| Fremont County | 981 | 1,923 | 56 | 2,960 | R +31.8 |
| Audubon County | 1,068 | 1,535 | 51 | 2,654 | R +17.6 |
| Wayne County | 657 | 1,902 | 51 | 2,610 | R +47.7 |
| Osceola County | 516 | 2,017 | 49 | 2,582 | R +58.1 |
| Taylor County | 662 | 1,799 | 49 | 2,510 | R +45.3 |
| Ringgold County | 765 | 1,423 | 43 | 2,231 | R +29.5 |
| Adams County | 660 | 1,078 | 34 | 1,772 | R +23.6 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +13.0 and R +2.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +6.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +9.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +8.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +5.2 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +5.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +13.0 and R +2.9.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Norwood | Smith | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||