2026 forecast · Illinois Governor
JB Pritzker is all but certain to win Illinois's governorship.
JB Pritzker vs Darren Bailey. The model has Pritzker ahead by 26.2 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Safe DModel D +26.2Polls D +23.2Updated October 22, 2026
JB Pritzker
Democrat
61.0%
2,838,625 projected votes
Darren Bailey
Republican
34.8%
1,618,641 projected votes
100%Pritzker
0%Bailey
Pritzker all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Pritzker wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe D100% chance for Pritzker
Model marginD +26.2Polls D +23.2
80 percent rangeD +33.7 to D +18.92,000 simulations
Projected votes4,650,252Pritzker 61.0%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Pritzker +1,456,849 net votes from 19 countiesStatewide D +25.9, a 1,203,320 vote marginBailey +253,529 net votes from 83 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
JB PritzkerDemocrat · 100% to win
3040506070
61.0%
Darren BaileyRepublican · 0% to win
3040506070
34.8%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
4,650,252 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| JB Pritzker D | 2,838,625 | 61.0% |
| Darren Bailey R | 1,618,641 | 34.8% |
| Collin Corbett I | 96,260 | 2.1% |
| Michael Vick I | 96,260 | 2.1% |
| Total | 4,650,252 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +33.7 and D +18.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Public Policy Polling for Chicago News WeeklyOct 1 · 569 LV · D->99%Pritzker +20.0
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | D +23.2 | |
| Public Policy Polling for Chicago News Weekly | 569 LV | 14d | D +20.054 to 34 |
| Victory Research | 1,208 LV | 324d | D +20.054 to 34 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Model margin
Pritzker +26.2
Chance of winning
JB Pritzker100%
Darren Bailey0%
Simulated vote
JB Pritzker61.0%
Darren Bailey34.8%
Collin Corbett2.1%
Michael Vick2.1%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +11.1
FundamentalsD +28.2
With pollsD +25.9
Early vote turnoutD +0.3
With early voteD +26.2
Read from 605,424 ballots cast so far in Illinois, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
26 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
JB Pritzker24
- Cook County Democratic PartyCounty partysource
- Illinois AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
- Equality IllinoisLGBTQ advocacy groupsource
- The Chicago CrusaderNewspapersource
- Giffords PACGun safety PACsource
- End Citizens UnitedCampaign finance reform PACsource
- Illinois Education AssociationStatewide teachers unionsource
- Human Rights Campaign PACLGBTQ advocacy PACsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Pritzker | Bailey |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 57.3 | 38.5 |
| Women | 54% | 63.9 | 31.9 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 64.9 | 31.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 60.7 | 35.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 59.4 | 36.4 |
| 65+ | 32% | 60.7 | 35.1 |
| RaceWhite | 68% | 50.5 | 45.1 |
| Black | 13% | 90.5 | 6.2 |
| Latino | 11% | 75.8 | 20.7 |
| Asian and other | 7% | 81.0 | 14.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 31% | 45.2 | 50.4 |
| White women | 37% | 55.0 | 40.6 |
| Black men | 6% | 89.8 | 6.8 |
| Black women | 7% | 91.1 | 5.6 |
| Latino men | 5% | 73.1 | 23.4 |
| Latino women | 6% | 78.3 | 18.2 |
| All other races | 7% | 81.0 | 14.7 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
102 counties| County | Pritzker | Bailey | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,830,389 | 1,627,069 | 192,794 | 4,650,252 | D +25.9 |
| Cook County | 1,367,972 | 326,005 | 48,798 | 1,742,775 | D +59.9 |
| DuPage County | 232,482 | 120,592 | 14,329 | 367,403 | D +30.4 |
| Will County | 148,493 | 99,192 | 10,858 | 258,543 | D +19.1 |
| Lake County | 165,758 | 77,938 | 9,627 | 253,323 | D +34.7 |
| Kane County | 106,789 | 63,033 | 7,445 | 177,267 | D +24.6 |
| McHenry County | 66,627 | 53,478 | 5,791 | 125,896 | D +10.5 |
| Madison County | 51,326 | 50,338 | 5,689 | 107,353 | D +0.9 |
| Winnebago County | 51,954 | 41,382 | 5,747 | 99,083 | D +10.7 |
| St. Clair County | 58,196 | 36,318 | 4,041 | 98,555 | D +22.1 |
| Sangamon County | 41,849 | 36,561 | 5,005 | 83,415 | D +6.5 |
| Champaign County | 48,512 | 24,655 | 3,448 | 76,615 | D +31.2 |
| McLean County | 37,710 | 29,676 | 3,398 | 70,784 | D +11.4 |
| Peoria County | 36,274 | 26,006 | 3,209 | 65,489 | D +15.7 |
| Tazewell County | 21,224 | 30,624 | 3,368 | 55,216 | R +17.0 |
| Rock Island County | 31,021 | 19,073 | 2,526 | 52,620 | D +22.8 |
| Kendall County | 27,815 | 20,535 | 2,438 | 50,788 | D +14.4 |
| LaSalle County | 19,421 | 21,200 | 2,183 | 42,804 | R +4.1 |
| Kankakee County | 16,786 | 20,266 | 1,909 | 38,961 | R +8.9 |
| Macon County | 16,438 | 20,192 | 1,968 | 38,598 | R +9.7 |
| DeKalb County | 20,858 | 15,510 | 2,036 | 38,404 | D +13.9 |
| Williamson County | 8,911 | 16,879 | 1,501 | 27,291 | R +29.2 |
| Adams County | 7,018 | 18,482 | 1,285 | 26,785 | R +42.8 |
| Vermilion County | 8,633 | 14,964 | 1,667 | 25,264 | R +25.1 |
| Whiteside County | 9,939 | 10,628 | 1,128 | 21,695 | R +3.1 |
| Grundy County | 8,296 | 11,569 | 1,201 | 21,066 | R +15.5 |
| Ogle County | 7,900 | 11,721 | 1,342 | 20,963 | R +18.3 |
| Henry County | 8,461 | 11,084 | 1,051 | 20,596 | R +12.8 |
| Macoupin County | 6,682 | 11,219 | 1,620 | 19,521 | R +23.3 |
| Jackson County | 10,552 | 7,757 | 1,127 | 19,436 | D +14.4 |
| Boone County | 8,628 | 9,363 | 1,230 | 19,221 | R +3.8 |
| Knox County | 9,287 | 8,612 | 1,021 | 18,920 | D +3.6 |
| Coles County | 6,888 | 10,287 | 1,058 | 18,233 | R +18.6 |
| Stephenson County | 7,502 | 9,190 | 1,122 | 17,814 | R +9.5 |
| Woodford County | 5,446 | 11,176 | 893 | 17,515 | R +32.7 |
| Monroe County | 5,964 | 9,928 | 714 | 16,606 | R +23.9 |
| Effingham County | 3,027 | 12,513 | 870 | 16,410 | R +57.8 |
| Clinton County | 4,184 | 11,022 | 750 | 15,956 | R +42.9 |
| Franklin County | 4,197 | 9,832 | 1,008 | 15,037 | R +37.4 |
| Marion County | 4,053 | 9,720 | 725 | 14,498 | R +39.1 |
| Jefferson County | 3,805 | 9,743 | 804 | 14,352 | R +41.3 |
| Livingston County | 4,065 | 9,148 | 813 | 14,026 | R +36.3 |
| Fulton County | 5,763 | 7,000 | 1,125 | 13,888 | R +8.9 |
| Christian County | 3,906 | 8,561 | 1,143 | 13,610 | R +34.2 |
| Bureau County | 5,409 | 7,281 | 752 | 13,442 | R +13.9 |
| Lee County | 5,428 | 6,999 | 849 | 13,276 | R +11.9 |
| Morgan County | 4,283 | 7,144 | 1,034 | 12,461 | R +22.9 |
| Randolph County | 3,561 | 8,064 | 742 | 12,367 | R +36.4 |
| Montgomery County | 3,517 | 6,927 | 958 | 11,402 | R +29.9 |
| Iroquois County | 2,570 | 8,163 | 577 | 11,310 | R +49.4 |
| Logan County | 3,219 | 6,683 | 815 | 10,717 | R +32.3 |
| McDonough County | 4,344 | 5,485 | 683 | 10,512 | R +10.9 |
| Shelby County | 2,085 | 7,316 | 752 | 10,153 | R +51.4 |
| Jo Daviess County | 4,533 | 5,058 | 463 | 10,054 | R +5.2 |
| Jersey County | 2,727 | 6,316 | 829 | 9,872 | R +36.4 |
| Saline County | 2,547 | 5,937 | 738 | 9,222 | R +36.8 |
| Fayette County | 1,664 | 6,420 | 674 | 8,758 | R +54.3 |
| Perry County | 2,378 | 5,369 | 521 | 8,268 | R +36.1 |
| Piatt County | 2,859 | 4,541 | 497 | 7,897 | R +21.3 |
| Crawford County | 1,820 | 5,461 | 490 | 7,771 | R +46.8 |
| Hancock County | 2,042 | 5,228 | 431 | 7,701 | R +41.4 |
| Wayne County | 1,083 | 5,905 | 329 | 7,317 | R +66.0 |
| Douglas County | 1,887 | 4,898 | 417 | 7,202 | R +41.7 |
| Union County | 2,319 | 4,452 | 424 | 7,195 | R +29.7 |
| Mercer County | 2,764 | 3,850 | 429 | 7,043 | R +15.5 |
| Bond County | 2,145 | 4,355 | 475 | 6,975 | R +31.6 |
| Edgar County | 1,710 | 4,737 | 390 | 6,837 | R +44.2 |
| Clark County | 1,673 | 4,848 | 314 | 6,835 | R +46.5 |
| Richland County | 1,664 | 4,667 | 354 | 6,685 | R +44.9 |
| De Witt County | 1,896 | 4,286 | 395 | 6,577 | R +36.3 |
| Carroll County | 2,281 | 3,896 | 339 | 6,516 | R +24.8 |
| Pike County | 1,284 | 4,590 | 532 | 6,406 | R +51.7 |
| Washington County | 1,514 | 4,506 | 350 | 6,370 | R +47.0 |
| Warren County | 2,500 | 3,483 | 341 | 6,324 | R +15.5 |
| White County | 1,284 | 4,560 | 269 | 6,113 | R +53.6 |
| Clay County | 1,006 | 4,813 | 262 | 6,081 | R +62.6 |
| Moultrie County | 1,371 | 3,902 | 348 | 5,621 | R +45.1 |
| Lawrence County | 1,378 | 3,957 | 245 | 5,580 | R +46.3 |
| Massac County | 1,542 | 3,751 | 250 | 5,543 | R +39.8 |
| Ford County | 1,496 | 3,706 | 337 | 5,539 | R +39.8 |
| Menard County | 1,803 | 3,284 | 366 | 5,453 | R +27.1 |
| Mason County | 1,731 | 3,220 | 425 | 5,376 | R +27.7 |
| Johnson County | 1,193 | 3,831 | 349 | 5,373 | R +49.0 |
| Greene County | 1,212 | 3,441 | 426 | 5,079 | R +43.9 |
| Marshall County | 1,784 | 3,004 | 284 | 5,072 | R +23.9 |
| Cumberland County | 1,090 | 3,610 | 311 | 5,011 | R +50.2 |
| Jasper County | 908 | 3,611 | 217 | 4,736 | R +57.1 |
| Wabash County | 1,106 | 3,236 | 181 | 4,523 | R +47.1 |
| Cass County | 1,394 | 2,655 | 372 | 4,421 | R +28.6 |
| Hamilton County | 725 | 2,682 | 229 | 3,636 | R +53.9 |
| Schuyler County | 977 | 2,047 | 274 | 3,298 | R +32.5 |
| Henderson County | 1,048 | 1,806 | 159 | 3,013 | R +25.1 |
| Edwards County | 441 | 2,368 | 121 | 2,930 | R +65.8 |
| Putnam County | 1,180 | 1,454 | 168 | 2,802 | R +9.9 |
| Stark County | 696 | 1,504 | 158 | 2,358 | R +34.3 |
| Calhoun County | 615 | 1,536 | 197 | 2,348 | R +39.3 |
| Gallatin County | 595 | 1,523 | 144 | 2,262 | R +41.1 |
| Scott County | 484 | 1,578 | 190 | 2,252 | R +48.6 |
| Brown County | 461 | 1,582 | 185 | 2,228 | R +50.4 |
| Pulaski County | 798 | 1,199 | 116 | 2,113 | R +19.1 |
| Alexander County | 929 | 894 | 76 | 1,899 | D +1.9 |
| Pope County | 422 | 1,295 | 103 | 1,820 | R +47.9 |
| Hardin County | 402 | 1,183 | 127 | 1,712 | R +45.6 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.