2026 ballot measure forecast
Arkansas Issue 1
Only U.S. citizens may vote
Amends the constitution so only U.S. citizens who meet state qualifications may vote in state and local elections in Arkansas. The forecast has Yes at 75.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
75.1%80% range 68 to 81
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
64.3%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 85.1% Yes
- Polls
- 64.3% Yes
- Forecast
- 75.1% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
The campaign
Legislative referral; critics cited by the UA Public Policy Center say it could lead to stricter proof of citizenship rules; no campaign money reported.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +464,306 net votes from 75 countiesStatewide Yes +50.2, a 464,306 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
924,326 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 694,316 | 75.1% |
| No | 230,010 | 24.9% |
| Total | 924,326 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulaski County | 73,602 | 52,117 | 125,719 | 58.5% |
| Benton County | 70,585 | 24,276 | 94,861 | 74.4% |
| Washington County | 51,476 | 23,951 | 75,427 | 68.2% |
| Saline County | 34,303 | 9,544 | 43,847 | 78.2% |
| Faulkner County | 31,812 | 10,063 | 41,875 | 76.0% |
| Sebastian County | 27,512 | 7,990 | 35,502 | 77.5% |
| Garland County | 25,697 | 7,633 | 33,330 | 77.1% |
| Craighead County | 22,878 | 6,658 | 29,536 | 77.5% |
| White County | 20,078 | 3,679 | 23,757 | 84.5% |
| Lonoke County | 18,992 | 4,114 | 23,106 | 82.2% |
| Pope County | 15,240 | 3,384 | 18,624 | 81.8% |
| Crawford County | 15,262 | 3,007 | 18,269 | 83.5% |
| Jefferson County | 10,394 | 7,113 | 17,507 | 59.4% |
| Baxter County | 13,237 | 2,692 | 15,929 | 83.1% |
| Boone County | 11,069 | 1,866 | 12,935 | 85.6% |
| Greene County | 10,372 | 1,915 | 12,287 | 84.4% |
| Miller County | 9,736 | 2,238 | 11,974 | 81.3% |
| Union County | 8,948 | 2,792 | 11,740 | 76.2% |
| Crittenden County | 7,317 | 3,873 | 11,190 | 65.4% |
| Independence County | 9,166 | 1,749 | 10,915 | 84.0% |
| Cleburne County | 8,589 | 1,341 | 9,930 | 86.5% |
| Hot Spring County | 8,088 | 1,807 | 9,895 | 81.7% |
| Carroll County | 6,826 | 2,184 | 9,010 | 75.8% |
| Mississippi County | 6,553 | 2,105 | 8,658 | 75.7% |
| Johnson County | 5,784 | 1,310 | 7,094 | 81.5% |
| Ouachita County | 4,893 | 1,904 | 6,797 | 72.0% |
| Conway County | 5,263 | 1,458 | 6,721 | 78.3% |
| Polk County | 5,816 | 840 | 6,656 | 87.4% |
| Logan County | 5,421 | 971 | 6,392 | 84.8% |
| Grant County | 5,497 | 836 | 6,333 | 86.8% |
| Columbia County | 4,824 | 1,434 | 6,258 | 77.1% |
| Clark County | 4,523 | 1,721 | 6,244 | 72.4% |
| Marion County | 5,082 | 961 | 6,043 | 84.1% |
| Van Buren County | 5,081 | 955 | 6,036 | 84.2% |
| Sharp County | 5,013 | 890 | 5,903 | 84.9% |
| Madison County | 4,798 | 940 | 5,738 | 83.6% |
| Poinsett County | 4,815 | 843 | 5,658 | 85.1% |
| Ashley County | 4,379 | 1,065 | 5,444 | 80.4% |
| Franklin County | 4,565 | 812 | 5,377 | 84.9% |
| Randolph County | 4,483 | 776 | 5,259 | 85.2% |
| Yell County | 4,419 | 823 | 5,242 | 84.3% |
| Drew County | 3,957 | 1,226 | 5,183 | 76.3% |
| St. Francis County | 3,304 | 1,711 | 5,015 | 65.9% |
| Cross County | 4,027 | 980 | 5,007 | 80.4% |
| Stone County | 4,102 | 743 | 4,845 | 84.7% |
| Hempstead County | 3,777 | 1,061 | 4,838 | 78.1% |
| Izard County | 4,015 | 656 | 4,671 | 86.0% |
| Lawrence County | 3,933 | 675 | 4,608 | 85.4% |
| Arkansas County | 3,530 | 919 | 4,449 | 79.3% |
| Jackson County | 3,294 | 788 | 4,082 | 80.7% |
| Phillips County | 2,502 | 1,551 | 4,053 | 61.7% |
| Clay County | 3,402 | 620 | 4,022 | 84.6% |
| Fulton County | 3,370 | 606 | 3,976 | 84.8% |
| Little River County | 3,157 | 679 | 3,836 | 82.3% |
| Sevier County | 3,123 | 569 | 3,692 | 84.6% |
| Perry County | 3,026 | 603 | 3,629 | 83.4% |
| Pike County | 3,141 | 425 | 3,566 | 88.1% |
| Howard County | 2,854 | 711 | 3,565 | 80.1% |
| Searcy County | 2,680 | 372 | 3,052 | 87.8% |
| Montgomery County | 2,572 | 451 | 3,023 | 85.1% |
| Chicot County | 1,934 | 1,048 | 2,982 | 64.9% |
| Newton County | 2,518 | 433 | 2,951 | 85.3% |
| Lincoln County | 2,355 | 549 | 2,904 | 81.1% |
| Desha County | 1,940 | 929 | 2,869 | 67.6% |
| Scott County | 2,494 | 332 | 2,826 | 88.3% |
| Cleveland County | 2,347 | 372 | 2,719 | 86.3% |
| Prairie County | 2,247 | 372 | 2,619 | 85.8% |
| Bradley County | 1,998 | 571 | 2,569 | 77.8% |
| Nevada County | 1,845 | 518 | 2,363 | 78.1% |
| Lee County | 1,342 | 723 | 2,065 | 65.0% |
| Monroe County | 1,428 | 583 | 2,011 | 71.0% |
| Dallas County | 1,436 | 477 | 1,913 | 75.1% |
| Woodruff County | 1,452 | 460 | 1,912 | 75.9% |
| Lafayette County | 1,456 | 419 | 1,875 | 77.7% |
| Calhoun County | 1,370 | 248 | 1,618 | 84.7% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll | 1,217 LV | 2026-08-12 | 60 | 27 | 13 | 64.3% |
How this is built
Issue 1 is forecast as a citizen only voting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Arkansas's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: axios.com, theballotbrief.com, talkbusiness.net, uaex.uada.edu. All measures.