Kurt Alme is all but certain to win Montana's Senate seat.
Seth Bodnar vs Kurt Alme, an open seat. The model has Alme ahead by 19.6 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
565,319 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme R | 281,296 | 49.8% |
| Alani Bankhead D | 184,786 | 32.7% |
| Seth Bodnar IND | 170,620 | 30.2% |
| Kyle Austin L | 10,798 | 1.9% |
| Total | 565,319 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +13.2 and R +25.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +6.3 | |
| Quantus Insights | 667 LV | 0d | D +7.2 |
| Peak Insights (R) | 500 LV | 3d | D +2.6 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar (D) | 405 LV | 7d | D +12.3 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local | 600 RV | 21d | D +0.7 |
| Aspect Strategic (I) | 715 LV | 30d | D +2.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 625 LV | 36d | D +4.7 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics | 845 RV | 38d | D +6.9 |
| Peak Insights | 600 LV | 51d | D +0.9 |
| Hart Research (D) | 800 LV | 72d | R +1.0 |
| Tavern Research (D) | 517 LV | 80d | R +1.1 |
| GQR (D) | 500 LV | 81d | D +6.7 |
| Bullfinch Group (R) | 793 LV | 91d | D +8.4 |
| GrayHouse (R) | 500 RV | 113d | D +3.1 |
| Hart Research (D) | 800 LV | 113d | R +1.0 |
| Tavern Research (D) | 400 LV | 118d | R +0.1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 500 LV | 126d | D +4.3 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 137,265 ballots cast so far in Montana, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
23 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Jon TesterFormer U.S. Senator from Montanasource
- Max BaucusFormer U.S. Senator from Montanasource
- Marc RacicotFormer Governor of Montanasource
- Nancy KeenanFormer Montana Superintendent of Public Instructionsource
- Dorothy BradleyFormer Montana state legislatorsource
- Andrew YangCo-chair of the Forward Partysource
- Susan GeiseFormer Montana GOP chairsource
- Gary BuchananIndependent candidate for MT-02 in 2022source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Bodnar | Alme |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 26.3 | 55.5 |
| Women | 52% | 32.0 | 46.2 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 33.2 | 45.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 29.4 | 50.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 30% | 27.3 | 53.8 |
| 65+ | 36% | 29.6 | 50.0 |
| RaceWhite | 89% | 27.1 | 53.4 |
| Latino | 3% | 40.2 | 35.2 |
| Asian and other | 8% | 48.4 | 27.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 42% | 23.1 | 59.5 |
| White women | 47% | 30.7 | 47.9 |
| Latino men | 2% | 38.2 | 38.2 |
| Latino women | 1% | 42.4 | 32.1 |
| All other races | 8% | 48.4 | 27.3 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
56 counties| County | Bodnar | Alme | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 177,827 | 274,100 | 113,392 | 565,319 | R +17.0 |
| Yellowstone County | 24,042 | 38,894 | 15,149 | 78,085 | R +19.4 |
| Missoula County | 28,529 | 20,193 | 18,388 | 67,110 | D +12.3 |
| Gallatin County | 23,792 | 25,994 | 15,379 | 65,165 | R +3.6 |
| Flathead County | 15,385 | 32,779 | 9,795 | 57,959 | R +30.3 |
| Lewis and Clark County | 14,356 | 15,762 | 9,200 | 39,318 | R +3.8 |
| Cascade County | 12,072 | 17,726 | 7,496 | 37,294 | R +15.4 |
| Ravalli County | 6,488 | 16,506 | 4,186 | 27,180 | R +37.2 |
| Silver Bow County | 7,197 | 5,726 | 4,517 | 17,440 | D +8.3 |
| Lake County | 4,802 | 8,109 | 3,128 | 16,039 | R +20.9 |
| Lincoln County | 2,352 | 7,147 | 1,624 | 11,123 | R +43.3 |
| Park County | 3,652 | 4,438 | 2,430 | 10,520 | R +7.6 |
| Sanders County | 1,373 | 5,273 | 958 | 7,604 | R +51.4 |
| Jefferson County | 1,949 | 4,236 | 1,258 | 7,443 | R +30.9 |
| Carbon County | 1,873 | 3,603 | 1,178 | 6,654 | R +26.2 |
| Hill County | 2,157 | 2,977 | 1,340 | 6,474 | R +13.1 |
| Fergus County | 1,340 | 4,094 | 841 | 6,275 | R +44.0 |
| Custer County | 1,643 | 3,079 | 987 | 5,709 | R +25.4 |
| Madison County | 1,302 | 3,596 | 810 | 5,708 | R +40.4 |
| Beaverhead County | 1,297 | 3,275 | 819 | 5,391 | R +36.9 |
| Stillwater County | 1,126 | 3,506 | 668 | 5,300 | R +45.1 |
| Richland County | 878 | 3,512 | 554 | 4,944 | R +53.3 |
| Deer Lodge County | 2,000 | 1,629 | 1,275 | 4,904 | D +7.5 |
| Glacier County | 2,021 | 1,449 | 1,296 | 4,766 | D +11.8 |
| Big Horn County | 1,641 | 1,774 | 1,037 | 4,452 | R +3.2 |
| Dawson County | 886 | 2,936 | 541 | 4,363 | R +47.2 |
| Broadwater County | 815 | 2,902 | 516 | 4,233 | R +49.1 |
| Valley County | 1,022 | 2,181 | 619 | 3,822 | R +30.5 |
| Roosevelt County | 1,280 | 1,558 | 824 | 3,662 | R +7.9 |
| Rosebud County | 935 | 1,929 | 570 | 3,434 | R +29.0 |
| Powell County | 775 | 2,028 | 514 | 3,317 | R +37.7 |
| Teton County | 741 | 2,097 | 462 | 3,300 | R +41.1 |
| Chouteau County | 828 | 1,460 | 493 | 2,781 | R +22.7 |
| Pondera County | 764 | 1,579 | 436 | 2,779 | R +29.6 |
| Musselshell County | 455 | 2,035 | 283 | 2,773 | R +56.9 |
| Blaine County | 986 | 1,121 | 598 | 2,705 | R +5.0 |
| Mineral County | 615 | 1,589 | 416 | 2,620 | R +37.3 |
| Sweet Grass County | 447 | 1,410 | 282 | 2,139 | R +45.0 |
| Toole County | 481 | 1,350 | 288 | 2,119 | R +40.8 |
| Phillips County | 382 | 1,474 | 229 | 2,085 | R +52.5 |
| Granite County | 555 | 1,111 | 371 | 2,037 | R +27.3 |
| Sheridan County | 482 | 1,047 | 298 | 1,827 | R +30.9 |
| Fallon County | 198 | 1,078 | 148 | 1,424 | R +61.2 |
| Judith Basin County | 253 | 787 | 148 | 1,188 | R +44.4 |
| Meagher County | 247 | 729 | 145 | 1,121 | R +42.7 |
| Wheatland County | 206 | 692 | 127 | 1,025 | R +47.1 |
| Powder River County | 141 | 796 | 84 | 1,021 | R +63.0 |
| McCone County | 147 | 768 | 93 | 1,008 | R +61.0 |
| Liberty County | 220 | 610 | 134 | 964 | R +40.3 |
| Daniels County | 168 | 576 | 117 | 861 | R +45.9 |
| Carter County | 82 | 670 | 54 | 806 | R +72.1 |
| Prairie County | 123 | 481 | 75 | 679 | R +51.9 |
| Garfield County | 58 | 552 | 40 | 650 | R +75.3 |
| Wibaux County | 79 | 386 | 47 | 512 | R +58.0 |
| Golden Valley County | 76 | 347 | 57 | 480 | R +53.3 |
| Treasure County | 73 | 311 | 47 | 431 | R +54.2 |
| Petroleum County | 40 | 233 | 23 | 296 | R +64.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.