2026 forecast · Nevada Secretary Of State
Cisco Aguilar is very likely to win Nevada's secretary of state race.
Cisco Aguilar vs Jim Marchant, with Cisco Aguilar running again. The model has Aguilar ahead by 9.4 points, with a 93 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +9.4Polls D +8.2Updated October 22, 2026
Cisco Aguilar
Democrat
52.2%
643,488 projected votes
Jim Marchant
Republican
42.7%
526,957 projected votes
93%Aguilar
7%Marchant
Aguilar very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Aguilar wins about 93 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Aguilar +174,177 net votes from 2 countiesStatewide D +9.5, a 116,533 vote marginMarchant +57,644 net votes from 15 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,232,832 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Cisco Aguilar D | 643,488 | 52.2% |
| Jim Marchant R | 526,957 | 42.7% |
| Brad Lee Barnhill, John T. Kennedy | 62,385 | 5.1% |
| Total | 1,232,832 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
17 counties| County | Aguilar | Marchant | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 643,490 | 526,957 | 62,385 | 1,232,832 | D +9.5 |
| Clark County | 481,597 | 324,790 | 42,981 | 849,368 | D +18.5 |
| Washoe County | 114,055 | 96,685 | 11,233 | 221,973 | D +7.8 |
| Douglas County | 9,788 | 18,840 | 1,526 | 30,154 | R +30.0 |
| Lyon County | 7,386 | 18,832 | 1,398 | 27,616 | R +41.5 |
| Carson City | 11,755 | 13,417 | 1,341 | 26,513 | R +6.3 |
| Nye County | 7,121 | 15,182 | 1,188 | 23,491 | R +34.3 |
| Elko County | 3,947 | 14,139 | 964 | 19,050 | R +53.5 |
| Churchill County | 2,625 | 8,166 | 575 | 11,366 | R +48.8 |
| Humboldt County | 1,512 | 5,031 | 349 | 6,892 | R +51.1 |
| White Pine County | 809 | 2,801 | 192 | 3,802 | R +52.4 |
| Storey County | 768 | 1,650 | 129 | 2,547 | R +34.7 |
| Lander County | 429 | 1,838 | 121 | 2,388 | R +59.0 |
| Lincoln County | 314 | 1,827 | 114 | 2,255 | R +67.1 |
| Pershing County | 515 | 1,514 | 109 | 2,138 | R +46.7 |
| Mineral County | 721 | 1,191 | 101 | 2,013 | R +23.3 |
| Eureka County | 77 | 714 | 42 | 833 | R +76.5 |
| Esmeralda County | 71 | 340 | 22 | 433 | R +62.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.5 and D +1.4. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +3.0 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +12.5 |
| Blend of every leg | D +6.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +10.3 |
| With polls, 15% weight | D +9.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +17.5 and D +1.4.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Aguilar | Marchant | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse) | 708 LV | 2026-09-26 | 44 | 37 | D +7.0 |