Shelley Moore Capito is all but certain to win West Virginia's Senate seat.
Rachel Fetty Anderson vs Shelley Moore Capito. The model has Capito ahead by 32.4 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
608,831 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Shelley Moore Capito R | 395,400 | 64.9% |
| Rachel Fetty Anderson D | 198,332 | 32.6% |
| Other / independents O | 15,099 | 2.5% |
| Total | 608,831 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +23.2 and R +41.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
Polls of the race
| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | No polls |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
West Virginia has no early vote reported yet, so its turnout correction comes from similar states that do and from its primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
8 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Donald TrumpPresidentsource
- Jim JusticeU.S. Senator, WVsource
- Carol MillerU.S. Rep., WV-01source
- Riley MooreU.S. Rep., WV-02source
- Maggie's ListPAC supporting conservative women candidatessource
- Log Cabin RepublicansLGBT Republican group, Federal PACsource
- West Virginia Chamber PACPolitical arm of the West Virginia Chamber of Commercesource
- U.S. Chamber of CommerceBusiness groupsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Anderson | Capito |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 27.3 | 70.2 |
| Women | 53% | 35.6 | 61.9 |
| Age18 to 29 | 12% | 35.0 | 62.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 19% | 32.2 | 65.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 29.2 | 68.3 |
| 65+ | 38% | 32.6 | 64.9 |
| RaceWhite | 92% | 28.9 | 68.6 |
| Black | 3% | 77.9 | 19.7 |
| Latino | 2% | 50.9 | 46.6 |
| Asian and other | 3% | 59.2 | 37.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 43% | 24.0 | 73.6 |
| White women | 50% | 33.2 | 64.3 |
| Black men | 2% | 74.3 | 23.3 |
| Black women | 2% | 81.4 | 16.3 |
| All other races | 3% | 59.2 | 37.8 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
55 counties| County | Anderson | Capito | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 197,815 | 395,899 | 15,117 | 608,831 | R +32.5 |
| Kanawha County | 26,435 | 34,007 | 1,108 | 61,550 | R +12.3 |
| Berkeley County | 14,321 | 25,361 | 1,018 | 40,700 | R +27.1 |
| Monongalia County | 19,287 | 16,968 | 1,199 | 37,454 | D +6.2 |
| Cabell County | 11,583 | 17,826 | 631 | 30,040 | R +20.7 |
| Wood County | 9,598 | 19,460 | 746 | 29,804 | R +33.0 |
| Raleigh County | 6,499 | 17,381 | 463 | 24,343 | R +44.7 |
| Harrison County | 8,010 | 14,383 | 693 | 23,086 | R +27.6 |
| Jefferson County | 10,176 | 11,650 | 513 | 22,339 | R +6.7 |
| Putnam County | 5,957 | 14,642 | 421 | 21,020 | R +41.3 |
| Marion County | 8,063 | 11,120 | 634 | 19,817 | R +15.4 |
| Mercer County | 4,436 | 14,099 | 379 | 18,914 | R +51.1 |
| Ohio County | 5,452 | 9,629 | 292 | 15,373 | R +27.1 |
| Fayette County | 4,196 | 8,036 | 301 | 12,533 | R +30.6 |
| Wayne County | 3,419 | 8,753 | 274 | 12,446 | R +42.8 |
| Greenbrier County | 3,956 | 8,210 | 273 | 12,439 | R +34.2 |
| Preston County | 3,071 | 7,777 | 583 | 11,431 | R +41.1 |
| Marshall County | 2,911 | 7,633 | 193 | 10,737 | R +44.0 |
| Hancock County | 3,127 | 6,868 | 309 | 10,304 | R +36.3 |
| Jackson County | 2,423 | 7,376 | 190 | 9,989 | R +49.6 |
| Mineral County | 2,206 | 7,335 | 346 | 9,887 | R +51.8 |
| Randolph County | 2,930 | 6,281 | 265 | 9,476 | R +35.4 |
| Logan County | 1,904 | 7,013 | 145 | 9,062 | R +56.4 |
| Mason County | 2,034 | 6,007 | 206 | 8,247 | R +48.2 |
| Nicholas County | 1,960 | 6,012 | 205 | 8,177 | R +49.6 |
| Hampshire County | 1,886 | 5,890 | 216 | 7,992 | R +50.1 |
| Upshur County | 1,924 | 5,748 | 221 | 7,893 | R +48.5 |
| Brooke County | 2,353 | 5,219 | 234 | 7,806 | R +36.7 |
| Mingo County | 1,228 | 5,479 | 137 | 6,844 | R +62.1 |
| Boone County | 1,897 | 4,615 | 126 | 6,638 | R +41.0 |
| Morgan County | 1,885 | 4,523 | 177 | 6,585 | R +40.1 |
| Wyoming County | 1,112 | 4,780 | 108 | 6,000 | R +61.3 |
| Lincoln County | 1,374 | 4,351 | 135 | 5,860 | R +50.8 |
| Taylor County | 1,712 | 3,732 | 198 | 5,642 | R +35.9 |
| Lewis County | 1,378 | 4,042 | 162 | 5,582 | R +47.7 |
| Barbour County | 1,219 | 3,645 | 145 | 5,009 | R +48.4 |
| Hardy County | 1,215 | 3,630 | 140 | 4,985 | R +48.5 |
| Monroe County | 1,098 | 3,746 | 109 | 4,953 | R +53.5 |
| Wetzel County | 1,228 | 3,469 | 155 | 4,852 | R +46.2 |
| Roane County | 1,252 | 3,153 | 94 | 4,499 | R +42.3 |
| McDowell County | 1,179 | 3,228 | 81 | 4,488 | R +45.7 |
| Grant County | 505 | 3,646 | 116 | 4,267 | R +73.7 |
| Braxton County | 1,193 | 2,969 | 102 | 4,264 | R +41.7 |
| Summers County | 1,198 | 2,944 | 101 | 4,243 | R +41.1 |
| Pocahontas County | 879 | 2,145 | 120 | 3,144 | R +40.3 |
| Ritchie County | 487 | 2,530 | 93 | 3,110 | R +65.6 |
| Tucker County | 854 | 1,922 | 143 | 2,919 | R +36.6 |
| Tyler County | 536 | 2,278 | 96 | 2,910 | R +59.8 |
| Pleasants County | 615 | 1,941 | 84 | 2,640 | R +50.3 |
| Clay County | 621 | 1,898 | 56 | 2,575 | R +49.6 |
| Pendleton County | 588 | 1,937 | 44 | 2,569 | R +52.4 |
| Doddridge County | 397 | 2,045 | 83 | 2,525 | R +65.4 |
| Webster County | 561 | 1,803 | 65 | 2,429 | R +51.1 |
| Calhoun County | 513 | 1,749 | 63 | 2,325 | R +53.2 |
| Gilmer County | 573 | 1,480 | 76 | 2,129 | R +42.7 |
| Wirt County | 401 | 1,535 | 50 | 1,986 | R +57.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.