2026 forecast · Georgia Senate
Jon Ossoff is all but certain to win Georgia's Senate seat.
Jon Ossoff vs Mike Collins. The model has Ossoff ahead by 9.3 points, winning 97 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Likely DModel D +9.3Polls D +9.1Updated October 22, 2026
Jon Ossoff
Democrat
54.1%
2,524,165 projected votes
Mike Collins
Republican
44.8%
2,091,257 projected votes
97%Ossoff
3%Collins
Ossoff all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Ossoff wins about 97 of 100
RatingLikely D97% chance for Ossoff
Model marginD +9.3Polls D +9.1
80 percent rangeD +15.1 to D +3.52,000 simulations
Projected votes4,668,644Ossoff 54.1%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Ossoff +1,143,645 net votes from 37 countiesStatewide D +9.1, a 426,053 vote marginCollins +717,592 net votes from 122 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Jon OssoffDemocrat · 97% to win
3040506070
54.1%
Mike CollinsRepublican · 3% to win
3040506070
44.8%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
4,668,644 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff D | 2,524,165 | 54.1% |
| Mike Collins R | 2,091,257 | 44.8% |
| Write-in O | 53,223 | 1.1% |
| Total | 4,668,644 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +15.1 and D +3.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHollow dot: a lean firm's poll as published; the filled dot is where the average counts it, after its measured lean is taken offHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Big Data PollSep 23 · 678 LV · Gold16%Ossoff +11.2
InsiderAdvantageSep 23 · 1,200 LV · A+ · R lean, counted Ossoff +12.6 in the average16%Ossoff +8.0
Trafalgar Group (R)Oct 8 · 1,090 LV · A- · R lean, counted Ossoff +11.8 in the average16%Ossoff +8.0
Quantus InsightsOct 17 · 755 LV · Gold16%Ossoff +6.9
Quantus InsightsSep 16 · 645 LV · Gold12%Ossoff +4.0
Trafalgar Group (R)Sep 12 · 1,091 LV · A- · R lean, counted Ossoff +9.8 in the average8.3%Ossoff +6.0
Every other poll together: 15%
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +9.1 | |
| Quantus Insights | 755 LV | 0d | D +6.951.8 to 44.9 |
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 0d | D +8.054 to 46 |
| UGA SPIA for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 1,000 LV | 0d | D +8.048 to 40 |
| Trafalgar Group (R)Lean R | 1,090 LV | 7d | D +8.051 to 43 |
| Big Data Poll (R) | 678 LV | 22d | D +11.052 to 41 |
| Big Data Poll | 678 LV | 22d | D +10.7 |
| InsiderAdvantageLean R | 1,200 LV | 22d | D +8.050 to 42 |
| YouGov | 3,303 LV | 27d | D +10.052 to 42 |
| Quantus Insights | 645 LV | 29d | D +4.048.5 to 44.5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1,019 LV | 31d | D +9.051 to 42 |
| Trafalgar Group (R)Lean R | 1,091 LV | 33d | D +6.049 to 43 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)Lean R | 800 LV | 59d | D +7.050 to 43 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | 1,060 LV | 91d | D +9.052 to 43 |
| Wick | 1,175 LV | 107d | D +4.047 to 43 |
| Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,002 RV | 110d | D +13.056 to 43 |
| Quantus Insights | 624 RV | 398d | D +1.2 |
| TIPP Insights | 2,956 RV | 440d | R +1.4 |
| Cygnal (R) | 800 RV | 516d | D +3.8 |
| Trafalgar Group (R)Lean R | 1,426 RV | 536d | D +6.0 |
| WPA Intelligence (R) | 500 RV | 638d | D +11.3 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Model margin
Ossoff +9.3
Chance of winning
Jon Ossoff97%
Mike Collins3%
Simulated vote
Jon Ossoff54.1%
Mike Collins44.8%
Write-in1.1%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +2.2
FundamentalsD +12.4
With pollsD +9.2
Early vote turnoutD +0.1
With early voteD +9.3
Read from 1,194,086 ballots cast so far in Georgia, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
87 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Jon Ossoff52
- Barack Obamasource
- Raphael WarnockU.S. Senator from Georgiasource
- Keisha Lance Bottoms2026 Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia, former Atlanta mayorsource
- Jeff FlakeFormer U.S. Senator from Arizona, former ambassador to Turkeysource
- Wes MooreGovernor of Marylandsource
- Gail FryMayor of Toccoa (Republican)source
- Scott MathesonMayor of Valdosta (Republican)source
- Julie SmithMayor of Tifton (Republican)source
Mike Collins35
- Donald Trumpsource
- Newt GingrichFormer Speaker of the House, former GA-06source
- Steve ScaliseHouse Majority Leadersource
- Tom EmmerHouse Majority Whipsource
- Rick AllenU.S. Representative, GA-12source
- Brian JackU.S. Representative, GA-03source
- Jason AnavitarteGeorgia Senate Majority Leadersource
- Max BurnsGeorgia state senator, former U.S. representative GA-12source
On the air
Harry Enten: Highlighted Jon Ossoff leading by 13 points as one of three Southern Senate races where Democrats lead. source
Remy Numa: Fox News Power Rankings moved Georgia Senate from Lean D to Likely D. source
David Axelrod: Said Ossoff is the least likely competitive incumbent to lose. source
Joe Scarborough: Said the White House freak out over Ossoff's Natalie Harp jab makes no sense. source
Rich Baris: Told The Bulwark that Michigan and Georgia are effectively locks for El-Sayed and Jon Ossoff. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Ossoff | Collins |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 50.5 | 48.4 |
| Women | 53% | 58.1 | 40.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 56.3 | 42.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 54.2 | 44.7 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 54.7 | 44.2 |
| 65+ | 29% | 53.7 | 45.2 |
| RaceWhite | 57% | 35.5 | 63.3 |
| Black | 32% | 84.6 | 14.4 |
| Latino | 5% | 58.9 | 39.9 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 71.9 | 26.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 27% | 30.1 | 68.7 |
| White women | 30% | 40.2 | 58.6 |
| Black men | 15% | 80.7 | 18.2 |
| Black women | 17% | 87.9 | 11.1 |
| Latino men | 3% | 58.2 | 40.6 |
| Latino women | 3% | 59.6 | 39.2 |
| All other races | 6% | 71.9 | 26.8 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
159 counties| County | Ossoff | Collins | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,520,782 | 2,094,729 | 53,133 | 4,668,644 | D +9.1 |
| Fulton County | 391,863 | 98,724 | 4,955 | 495,542 | D +59.1 |
| Gwinnett County | 234,958 | 121,841 | 4,699 | 361,498 | D +31.4 |
| Cobb County | 227,637 | 122,724 | 4,614 | 354,975 | D +29.7 |
| DeKalb County | 299,020 | 44,604 | 3,120 | 346,744 | D +73.5 |
| Cherokee County | 47,084 | 86,347 | 2,170 | 135,601 | R +29.0 |
| Chatham County | 82,463 | 44,736 | 1,285 | 128,484 | D +29.4 |
| Forsyth County | 43,063 | 70,942 | 1,619 | 115,624 | R +24.2 |
| Henry County | 76,345 | 35,586 | 1,130 | 113,061 | D +36.3 |
| Clayton County | 96,210 | 11,896 | 982 | 109,088 | D +77.4 |
| Hall County | 25,996 | 58,194 | 1,282 | 85,472 | R +37.7 |
| Richmond County | 59,038 | 20,667 | 805 | 80,510 | D +47.9 |
| Paulding County | 33,202 | 44,524 | 1,104 | 78,830 | R +14.4 |
| Muscogee County | 51,300 | 24,332 | 764 | 76,396 | D +35.4 |
| Columbia County | 29,570 | 43,983 | 818 | 74,371 | R +19.3 |
| Coweta County | 27,108 | 44,617 | 945 | 72,670 | R +24.1 |
| Houston County | 33,334 | 37,114 | 711 | 71,159 | R +5.3 |
| Fayette County | 34,313 | 29,813 | 779 | 64,905 | D +7.0 |
| Bibb County | 43,039 | 21,064 | 517 | 64,620 | D +34.2 |
| Douglas County | 43,766 | 18,532 | 756 | 63,054 | D +40.2 |
| Clarke County | 38,205 | 13,170 | 677 | 52,052 | D +48.1 |
| Carroll County | 16,552 | 34,439 | 724 | 51,715 | R +34.5 |
| Newton County | 32,068 | 18,673 | 512 | 51,253 | D +26.3 |
| Walton County | 14,477 | 33,814 | 586 | 48,877 | R +39.6 |
| Bartow County | 13,787 | 33,430 | 670 | 47,887 | R +40.9 |
| Lowndes County | 19,858 | 23,820 | 396 | 44,074 | R +9.2 |
| Rockdale County | 31,550 | 9,714 | 417 | 41,681 | D +52.7 |
| Floyd County | 12,872 | 25,707 | 508 | 39,087 | R +32.8 |
| Glynn County | 16,083 | 22,280 | 387 | 38,750 | R +16.0 |
| Jackson County | 8,805 | 28,662 | 531 | 37,998 | R +52.4 |
| Barrow County | 11,446 | 23,906 | 575 | 35,927 | R +34.7 |
| Whitfield County | 10,484 | 22,889 | 473 | 33,846 | R +36.8 |
| Dougherty County | 24,824 | 7,895 | 231 | 32,950 | D +51.6 |
| Bulloch County | 12,322 | 17,844 | 336 | 30,502 | R +18.1 |
| Effingham County | 8,517 | 20,991 | 389 | 29,897 | R +41.8 |
| Catoosa County | 7,696 | 21,555 | 445 | 29,696 | R +46.7 |
| Spalding County | 12,986 | 15,785 | 320 | 29,091 | R +9.7 |
| Troup County | 11,447 | 16,190 | 251 | 27,888 | R +17.0 |
| Walker County | 6,561 | 20,746 | 416 | 27,723 | R +51.2 |
| Oconee County | 7,910 | 14,948 | 278 | 23,136 | R +30.5 |
| Gordon County | 4,684 | 18,035 | 346 | 23,065 | R +57.9 |
| Camden County | 7,971 | 14,194 | 338 | 22,503 | R +27.7 |
| Liberty County | 14,108 | 7,019 | 256 | 21,383 | D +33.2 |
| Laurens County | 7,919 | 13,157 | 170 | 21,246 | R +24.7 |
| Bryan County | 6,871 | 13,154 | 264 | 20,289 | R +30.9 |
| Habersham County | 3,390 | 16,297 | 300 | 19,987 | R +64.5 |
| Thomas County | 8,290 | 11,416 | 179 | 19,885 | R +15.7 |
| Harris County | 5,801 | 13,211 | 192 | 19,204 | R +38.6 |
| Baldwin County | 9,642 | 8,228 | 198 | 18,068 | D +7.8 |
| Pickens County | 3,217 | 14,042 | 245 | 17,504 | R +61.9 |
| Polk County | 3,849 | 12,348 | 247 | 16,444 | R +51.7 |
| Gilmer County | 3,110 | 12,671 | 207 | 15,988 | R +59.7 |
| Dawson County | 2,638 | 12,869 | 221 | 15,728 | R +65.0 |
| Lumpkin County | 3,382 | 11,866 | 280 | 15,528 | R +54.6 |
| Tift County | 5,554 | 9,838 | 124 | 15,516 | R +27.7 |
| Union County | 2,899 | 12,405 | 202 | 15,506 | R +61.2 |
| Lee County | 4,783 | 10,544 | 139 | 15,466 | R +37.2 |
| Monroe County | 4,542 | 10,730 | 154 | 15,426 | R +40.2 |
| Colquitt County | 4,298 | 10,962 | 139 | 15,399 | R +43.3 |
| Murray County | 2,649 | 11,908 | 206 | 14,763 | R +62.7 |
| Coffee County | 4,605 | 9,909 | 146 | 14,660 | R +36.2 |
| White County | 2,616 | 11,655 | 202 | 14,473 | R +62.4 |
| Madison County | 3,381 | 10,800 | 187 | 14,368 | R +51.6 |
| Fannin County | 2,646 | 11,236 | 168 | 14,050 | R +61.2 |
| Jones County | 4,941 | 8,850 | 139 | 13,930 | R +28.2 |
| Haralson County | 1,803 | 11,731 | 206 | 13,740 | R +72.2 |
| Ware County | 4,170 | 8,874 | 105 | 13,149 | R +35.7 |
| Hart County | 2,591 | 9,718 | 124 | 12,433 | R +57.4 |
| Peach County | 6,161 | 5,792 | 108 | 12,061 | D +3.1 |
| Wayne County | 2,528 | 9,350 | 144 | 12,022 | R +56.7 |
| Upson County | 3,972 | 7,872 | 119 | 11,963 | R +32.4 |
| Butts County | 3,546 | 7,948 | 116 | 11,610 | R +38.0 |
| Sumter County | 6,446 | 4,964 | 68 | 11,478 | D +12.9 |
| Putnam County | 3,674 | 7,692 | 103 | 11,469 | R +35.0 |
| Stephens County | 2,354 | 8,936 | 126 | 11,416 | R +57.7 |
| Greene County | 4,353 | 6,974 | 80 | 11,407 | R +22.9 |
| Morgan County | 3,346 | 7,785 | 113 | 11,244 | R +39.4 |
| Decatur County | 4,643 | 5,951 | 85 | 10,679 | R +12.2 |
| Franklin County | 1,392 | 8,985 | 115 | 10,492 | R +72.3 |
| Pike County | 1,449 | 8,741 | 113 | 10,303 | R +70.7 |
| Meriwether County | 4,277 | 5,818 | 102 | 10,197 | R +15.0 |
| Burke County | 5,270 | 4,668 | 80 | 10,018 | D +6.0 |
| Toombs County | 2,854 | 7,023 | 90 | 9,967 | R +41.7 |
| Grady County | 3,429 | 6,301 | 79 | 9,809 | R +29.4 |
| McDuffie County | 3,871 | 5,502 | 85 | 9,458 | R +17.3 |
| Chattooga County | 2,012 | 7,292 | 142 | 9,446 | R +55.8 |
| Rabun County | 2,205 | 6,761 | 128 | 9,094 | R +50.1 |
| Lamar County | 2,595 | 6,347 | 100 | 9,042 | R +41.6 |
| Emanuel County | 2,854 | 5,973 | 71 | 8,898 | R +35.1 |
| Washington County | 4,880 | 3,907 | 71 | 8,858 | D +10.9 |
| Banks County | 833 | 7,764 | 114 | 8,711 | R +79.5 |
| Elbert County | 2,724 | 5,772 | 60 | 8,556 | R +35.6 |
| Pierce County | 952 | 7,543 | 60 | 8,555 | R +76.9 |
| Worth County | 2,425 | 6,011 | 85 | 8,521 | R +42.1 |
| Mitchell County | 3,968 | 4,279 | 58 | 8,305 | R +3.6 |
| Tattnall County | 2,271 | 5,890 | 82 | 8,243 | R +43.8 |
| Dodge County | 2,255 | 5,605 | 71 | 7,931 | R +42.3 |
| Towns County | 1,652 | 6,031 | 78 | 7,761 | R +56.4 |
| Jasper County | 1,891 | 5,693 | 84 | 7,668 | R +49.5 |
| Oglethorpe County | 2,517 | 4,999 | 107 | 7,623 | R +32.6 |
| Appling County | 1,618 | 5,916 | 68 | 7,602 | R +56.5 |
| Crisp County | 3,094 | 4,432 | 53 | 7,579 | R +17.6 |
| Brantley County | 720 | 6,635 | 74 | 7,429 | R +79.4 |
| Berrien County | 1,303 | 5,867 | 94 | 7,264 | R +62.7 |
| Dade County | 1,463 | 5,473 | 106 | 7,042 | R +56.7 |
| Jefferson County | 3,918 | 2,957 | 41 | 6,916 | D +13.8 |
| Brooks County | 2,765 | 3,854 | 54 | 6,673 | R +16.1 |
| Cook County | 2,045 | 4,516 | 73 | 6,634 | R +37.2 |
| McIntosh County | 2,544 | 3,676 | 69 | 6,289 | R +17.9 |
| Screven County | 2,634 | 3,497 | 43 | 6,174 | R +13.8 |
| Ben Hill County | 2,356 | 3,740 | 62 | 6,158 | R +22.5 |
| Long County | 2,392 | 3,448 | 89 | 5,929 | R +17.6 |
| Crawford County | 1,687 | 3,849 | 62 | 5,598 | R +38.6 |
| Bleckley County | 1,370 | 4,115 | 56 | 5,541 | R +49.4 |
| Jeff Davis County | 924 | 4,370 | 59 | 5,353 | R +64.0 |
| Heard County | 949 | 4,246 | 63 | 5,258 | R +62.5 |
| Wilkes County | 2,069 | 2,503 | 33 | 4,605 | R +9.4 |
| Macon County | 3,018 | 1,536 | 37 | 4,591 | D +32.5 |
| Early County | 2,273 | 2,179 | 27 | 4,479 | D +2.4 |
| Charlton County | 1,028 | 3,321 | 48 | 4,397 | R +51.9 |
| Wilkinson County | 2,065 | 2,297 | 31 | 4,393 | R +5.2 |
| Bacon County | 654 | 3,675 | 40 | 4,369 | R +68.9 |
| Lincoln County | 1,351 | 2,923 | 44 | 4,318 | R +36.1 |
| Telfair County | 1,578 | 2,553 | 33 | 4,164 | R +23.1 |
| Candler County | 1,258 | 2,871 | 33 | 4,162 | R +38.6 |
| Dooly County | 2,092 | 1,951 | 33 | 4,076 | D +3.7 |
| Hancock County | 3,003 | 1,001 | 28 | 4,032 | D +49.6 |
| Terrell County | 2,383 | 1,621 | 28 | 4,032 | D +18.8 |
| Pulaski County | 1,342 | 2,646 | 40 | 4,028 | R +32.2 |
| Irwin County | 1,096 | 2,812 | 36 | 3,944 | R +43.1 |
| Twiggs County | 1,955 | 1,938 | 40 | 3,933 | D +0.7 |
| Evans County | 1,239 | 2,637 | 32 | 3,908 | R +35.6 |
| Johnson County | 1,205 | 2,596 | 31 | 3,832 | R +36.1 |
| Seminole County | 1,245 | 2,406 | 29 | 3,680 | R +31.3 |
| Montgomery County | 987 | 2,655 | 33 | 3,675 | R +45.1 |
| Taylor County | 1,429 | 2,160 | 33 | 3,622 | R +20.1 |
| Turner County | 1,406 | 2,105 | 32 | 3,543 | R +19.7 |
| Lanier County | 1,051 | 2,323 | 45 | 3,419 | R +37.0 |
| Jenkins County | 1,304 | 1,947 | 26 | 3,277 | R +19.4 |
| Wilcox County | 966 | 2,257 | 23 | 3,246 | R +39.5 |
| Marion County | 1,315 | 1,887 | 35 | 3,237 | R +17.2 |
| Talbot County | 1,931 | 1,130 | 27 | 3,088 | D +25.9 |
| Treutlen County | 927 | 1,845 | 25 | 2,797 | R +32.6 |
| Randolph County | 1,675 | 1,094 | 17 | 2,786 | D +20.8 |
| Atkinson County | 758 | 1,903 | 29 | 2,690 | R +42.4 |
| Clinch County | 697 | 1,818 | 25 | 2,540 | R +44.0 |
| Miller County | 677 | 1,754 | 22 | 2,453 | R +43.3 |
| Wheeler County | 767 | 1,605 | 20 | 2,392 | R +34.1 |
| Warren County | 1,395 | 965 | 21 | 2,381 | D +17.9 |
| Schley County | 463 | 1,626 | 17 | 2,106 | R +54.8 |
| Calhoun County | 1,293 | 756 | 12 | 2,061 | D +26.3 |
| Stewart County | 1,333 | 602 | 15 | 1,950 | D +37.5 |
| Glascock County | 154 | 1,281 | 13 | 1,448 | R +76.8 |
| Chattahoochee County | 726 | 684 | 23 | 1,433 | D +2.8 |
| Baker County | 626 | 715 | 8 | 1,349 | R +6.1 |
| Clay County | 789 | 509 | 9 | 1,307 | D +21.3 |
| Echols County | 149 | 1,086 | 12 | 1,247 | R +73.7 |
| Webster County | 588 | 619 | 7 | 1,214 | R +1.8 |
| Quitman County | 516 | 523 | 10 | 1,049 | R +0.3 |
| Taliaferro County | 516 | 289 | 7 | 812 | D +28.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.