SearchThe Weighting Room
12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 ballot measure forecast

Montana I-194

Bar corporate political spending via charter limits

Limits powers of artificial persons so corporations and other entities cannot spend on candidates, ballot measures or parties. The forecast has Yes at 61.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 86% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated statuteGovernment and ethicsUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
86%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
61.0%
80% range 48 to 72
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
61.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
61.0% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Transparent Election Initiative PAC, 305,000 raised, endorsed by former Gov. Steve Bullock; opposed by Montanans for Free Speech.

Also on the Montana ballot

CI-132
Keep judicial elections nonpartisan
60%
CI-133
Protect initiative and referendum rights
48%

I-194 by county

Beaverhead CountyBig Horn CountyBlaine CountyBroadwater CountyCarbon CountyCarter CountyCascade CountyChouteau CountyCuster CountyDaniels CountyDawson CountyDeer Lodge CountyFallon CountyFergus CountyFlathead CountyGallatin CountyGarfield CountyGlacier CountyGolden Valley CountyGranite CountyHill CountyJefferson CountyJudith Basin CountyLake CountyLewis and Clark CountyLiberty CountyLincoln CountyMcCone CountyMadison CountyMeagher CountyMineral CountyMissoula CountyMusselshell CountyPark CountyPetroleum CountyPhillips CountyPondera CountyPowder River CountyPowell CountyPrairie CountyRavalli CountyRichland CountyRoosevelt CountyRosebud CountySanders CountySheridan CountySilver Bow CountyStillwater CountySweet Grass CountyTeton CountyToole CountyTreasure CountyValley CountyWheatland CountyWibaux CountyYellowstone CountyYellowstoneMissoulaGallatinFlatheadLewis and ClarkRavalliSilver BowLakeLincolnParkSandersJefferson
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Missoula County: Yes +21,873Gallatin County: Yes +18,063Yellowstone County: Yes +15,028Flathead County: Yes +9,982Lewis and Clark County: Yes +9,957Cascade County: Yes +7,708Silver Bow County: Yes +5,012Ravalli County: Yes +4,073Lake County: Yes +3,427Park County: Yes +2,607Glacier County: Yes +1,530Hill County: Yes +1,411Deer Lodge County: Yes +1,330Jefferson County: Yes +1,215Big Horn County: Yes +1,175Carbon County: Yes +1,171Lincoln County: Yes +1,146Roosevelt County: Yes +888Madison County: Yes +763Beaverhead County: Yes +749Sanders County: Yes +723Fergus County: Yes +685Blaine County: Yes +683Custer County: Yes +679Rosebud County: Yes +550Chouteau County: Yes +490Teton County: Yes +442Valley County: Yes +423Pondera County: Yes +402Stillwater County: Yes +348Dawson County: Yes +343Powell County: Yes +332Mineral County: Yes +319Broadwater County: Yes +304Granite County: Yes +281Sheridan County: Yes +257Sweet Grass County: Yes +221Toole County: Yes +188Richland County: Yes +160Phillips County: Yes +130Meagher County: Yes +112Judith Basin County: Yes +97Liberty County: Yes +96Wheatland County: Yes +81Prairie County: Yes +44Daniels County: Yes +41Musselshell County: Yes +38Treasure County: Yes +6Wibaux County: Yes +6Golden Valley County: Yes +5Garfield County: No +91Carter County: No +40Fallon County: No +24Powder River County: No +5Petroleum County: No +4McCone County: No +2
Yes +117,594 net votes from 50 countiesStatewide Yes +22.1, a 117,428 vote marginNo +166 net votes from 6 counties

Projected vote

531,402 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes324,41561.0%
No206,98739.0%
Total531,402100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Yellowstone County44,21429,18673,40060.2%
Missoula County42,47820,60563,08367.3%
Gallatin County39,65921,59661,25564.7%
Flathead County32,23222,25054,48259.2%
Lewis and Clark County23,45813,50136,95963.5%
Cascade County21,38213,67435,05661.0%
Ravalli County14,81110,73825,54958.0%
Silver Bow County10,7035,69116,39465.3%
Lake County9,2525,82515,07761.4%
Lincoln County5,8014,65510,45655.5%
Park County6,2483,6419,88963.2%
Sanders County3,9353,2127,14755.1%
Jefferson County4,1062,8916,99758.7%
Carbon County3,7132,5426,25559.4%
Hill County3,7482,3376,08561.6%
Fergus County3,2922,6075,89955.8%
Custer County3,0232,3445,36756.3%
Madison County3,0642,3015,36557.1%
Beaverhead County2,9082,1595,06757.4%
Stillwater County2,6652,3174,98253.5%
Richland County2,4042,2444,64851.7%
Deer Lodge County2,9701,6404,61064.4%
Glacier County3,0051,4754,48067.1%
Big Horn County2,6801,5054,18564.0%
Dawson County2,2221,8794,10154.2%
Broadwater County2,1421,8383,98053.8%
Valley County2,0081,5853,59355.9%
Roosevelt County2,1651,2773,44262.9%
Rosebud County1,8891,3393,22858.5%
Powell County1,7251,3933,11855.3%
Teton County1,7721,3303,10257.1%
Chouteau County1,5521,0622,61459.4%
Pondera County1,5071,1052,61257.7%
Musselshell County1,3221,2842,60650.7%
Blaine County1,6139302,54363.4%
Mineral County1,3911,0722,46356.5%
Sweet Grass County1,1168952,01155.5%
Toole County1,0909021,99254.7%
Phillips County1,0459151,96053.3%
Granite County1,0988171,91557.3%
Sheridan County9877301,71757.5%
Fallon County6576811,33849.1%
Judith Basin County6075101,11754.3%
Meagher County5834711,05455.3%
Wheatland County52244196354.2%
Powder River County47748295949.7%
McCone County47347594849.9%
Liberty County50140590655.3%
Daniels County42538480952.5%
Carter County35939975847.4%
Prairie County34129763853.4%
Garfield County26035161142.6%
Wibaux County24423848250.6%
Golden Valley County22822345150.6%
Treasure County20620040650.7%
Petroleum County13714127849.3%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
I-194 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Montana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sosmt.gov, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.