2026 forecast · New York Governor
Kathy Hochul is all but certain to win New York's governorship.
Kathy Hochul vs Bruce Blakeman. The model has Hochul ahead by 16.5 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Safe DModel D +16.5Polls D +12.2Updated October 22, 2026
Kathy Hochul
Democrat
57.6%
4,010,519 projected votes
Bruce Blakeman
Republican
41.1%
2,862,626 projected votes
100%Hochul
0%Blakeman
Hochul all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Hochul wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe D100% chance for Hochul
Model marginD +16.5Polls D +12.2
80 percent rangeD +23.0 to D +9.82,000 simulations
Projected votes6,960,852Hochul 57.6%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Hochul +1,487,320 net votes from 15 countiesStatewide D +16.3, a 1,135,821 vote marginBlakeman +351,499 net votes from 47 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Kathy HochulDemocrat · 100% to win
3040506070
57.6%
Bruce BlakemanRepublican · 0% to win
3040506070
41.1%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
6,960,852 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kathy Hochul D | 4,010,519 | 57.6% |
| Bruce Blakeman R | 2,862,626 | 41.1% |
| Other / write-in O | 87,011 | 1.3% |
| Total | 6,960,852 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +23.0 and D +9.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Emerson College/PIX11Oct 5 · 900 LV · Gold20%Hochul +12.0
Marist CollegeOct 4 · 1,361 RV · C20%Hochul +11.0
Quinnipiac UniversityOct 19 · 1,167 LV · C19%Hochul +14.0
co/efficient (R)Sep 25 · 1,046 LV · C+12%Hochul +7.0
Quinnipiac UniversitySep 20 · 1,026 LV · C7.7%Hochul +19.0
McLaughlin & Associates (R)Aug 31 · 800 LV · B7.4%Hochul +4.0
Every other poll together: 13%
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +12.2 | |
| Quinnipiac University | 1,167 LV | 0d | D +14.055 to 41 |
| Pollfinity Research | 499 RV | 3d | D +3.047 to 44 |
| Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 820 RV | 9d | D +22.053 to 31 |
| Emerson College/PIX11 | 900 LV | 10d | D +12.052 to 40 |
| Marist College | 1,361 RV | 11d | D +11.053 to 42 |
| co/efficient (R) | 1,046 LV | 20d | D +7.048 to 41 |
| Quinnipiac University | 1,026 LV | 25d | D +19.058 to 39 |
| Siena College | 1,144 LV | 28d | D +9.050 to 41 |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | 800 LV | 45d | D +4.050 to 46 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 505 LV | 55d | D +16.050 to 34 |
| Siena College | 811 LV | 70d | D +10.049 to 39 |
| Red Oak Strategic (R) | 2,000 RV | 95d | D +4.047 to 43 |
| co/efficient (R) | 1,085 LV | 105d | D +6.047 to 41 |
| Siena College | 1,120 RV | 114d | D +20.052 to 32 |
| Pollfinity Research | 229 RV | 123d | D +10.548 to 37.5 |
| Siena College | 802 RV | 260d | D +25.3 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 844 LV | 280d | D +13.8 |
| Siena College | 801 RV | 307d | D +24.4 |
| J.L. Partners | 500 LV | 339d | D +11.8 |
| Siena College | 800 RV | 476d | D +24.5 |
| GrayHouse | 600 RV | 539d | D +8.3 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Model margin
Hochul +16.5
Chance of winning
Kathy Hochul100%
Bruce Blakeman0%
Simulated vote
Kathy Hochul57.6%
Bruce Blakeman41.1%
Other / write-in1.3%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +12.7
FundamentalsD +14.6
With pollsD +16.3
Early vote turnoutD +0.1
With early voteD +16.5
New York has no early vote reported yet, so its turnout correction comes from similar states that do and from its primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
39 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Kathy Hochul30
- Zohran MamdaniMayor of New York Citysource
- Alexandria Ocasio-CortezU.S. Representative NY-14source
- Hakeem JeffriesHouse Minority Leadersource
- Letitia JamesNY Attorney Generalsource
- Andrea Stewart-CousinsState Senate Majority Leadersource
- Carl HeastieAssembly Speakersource
- Working Families PartyMinor party ballot linesource
- New York State AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
Bruce Blakeman9
- Donald Trumpsource
- Robert HoldenFormer NYC Council member (Democrat)source
- George PatakiFormer Governorsource
- Nick LaLotaU.S. Representative NY-1source
- Rob OrttState Senate Minority Leadersource
- William BarclayAssembly Minority Leadersource
- Debra MessingActress, longtime Democrat and Trump criticsource
- Conservative Party of New York StateMinor party ballot linesource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Hochul | Blakeman |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 51.7 | 47.1 |
| Women | 52% | 60.4 | 38.3 |
| Age18 to 29 | 12% | 56.7 | 42.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 53.6 | 45.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 55.6 | 43.2 |
| 65+ | 33% | 58.5 | 40.2 |
| RaceWhite | 64% | 45.0 | 53.7 |
| Black | 13% | 86.4 | 12.5 |
| Latino | 13% | 68.2 | 30.8 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 74.2 | 24.4 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 30% | 37.9 | 60.8 |
| White women | 34% | 51.2 | 47.4 |
| Black men | 6% | 84.9 | 14.0 |
| Black women | 7% | 87.7 | 11.2 |
| Latino men | 7% | 66.1 | 32.9 |
| Latino women | 6% | 70.4 | 28.5 |
| All other races | 9% | 74.2 | 24.4 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
62 counties| County | Hochul | Blakeman | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,004,446 | 2,868,625 | 87,781 | 6,960,852 | D +16.3 |
| Kings County | 561,097 | 170,047 | 10,381 | 741,525 | D +52.9 |
| Suffolk County | 289,511 | 333,556 | 5,025 | 628,092 | R +7.0 |
| Queens County | 399,710 | 189,536 | 5,351 | 594,597 | D +35.4 |
| Nassau County | 284,164 | 293,624 | 4,073 | 581,861 | R +1.5 |
| New York County | 491,559 | 82,049 | 8,145 | 581,753 | D +70.5 |
| Erie County | 212,653 | 166,752 | 4,220 | 383,625 | D +12.2 |
| Westchester County | 243,886 | 133,280 | 2,659 | 379,825 | D +29.3 |
| Monroe County | 172,398 | 131,301 | 4,625 | 308,324 | D +13.7 |
| Bronx County | 224,890 | 58,204 | 1,996 | 285,090 | D +58.6 |
| Onondaga County | 109,379 | 77,211 | 4,393 | 190,983 | D +17.1 |
| Richmond County | 67,457 | 97,775 | 1,165 | 166,397 | R +18.5 |
| Orange County | 66,219 | 75,374 | 1,575 | 143,168 | R +6.2 |
| Albany County | 80,285 | 45,569 | 3,493 | 129,347 | D +27.1 |
| Dutchess County | 64,477 | 61,794 | 1,147 | 127,418 | D +2.4 |
| Rockland County | 58,949 | 62,389 | 978 | 122,316 | R +2.8 |
| Saratoga County | 53,825 | 55,069 | 1,996 | 110,890 | R +0.8 |
| Niagara County | 36,995 | 47,264 | 851 | 85,110 | R +11.8 |
| Oneida County | 32,092 | 51,173 | 1,526 | 84,791 | R +22.4 |
| Ulster County | 48,215 | 34,074 | 1,253 | 83,542 | D +17.3 |
| Broome County | 36,577 | 38,755 | 1,225 | 76,557 | R +2.5 |
| Rensselaer County | 33,083 | 32,809 | 1,551 | 67,443 | D +0.6 |
| Schenectady County | 32,426 | 27,513 | 1,285 | 61,224 | D +8.3 |
| Putnam County | 21,853 | 29,981 | 1,438 | 53,272 | R +15.0 |
| Ontario County | 23,062 | 26,290 | 802 | 50,154 | R +6.1 |
| Chautauqua County | 18,168 | 29,408 | 578 | 48,154 | R +23.3 |
| Oswego County | 15,586 | 28,563 | 947 | 45,096 | R +28.5 |
| Tompkins County | 29,815 | 10,228 | 1,111 | 41,154 | D +48.0 |
| St. Lawrence County | 15,010 | 22,618 | 690 | 38,318 | R +19.6 |
| Steuben County | 11,750 | 25,290 | 756 | 37,796 | R +35.5 |
| Jefferson County | 13,098 | 23,463 | 557 | 37,118 | R +27.8 |
| Wayne County | 12,948 | 23,379 | 628 | 36,955 | R +28.0 |
| Chemung County | 12,160 | 18,776 | 471 | 31,407 | R +20.9 |
| Columbia County | 16,980 | 13,166 | 584 | 30,730 | D +12.7 |
| Clinton County | 14,553 | 15,524 | 427 | 30,504 | R +2.9 |
| Warren County | 13,578 | 16,031 | 543 | 30,152 | R +7.9 |
| Cayuga County | 12,655 | 16,809 | 633 | 30,097 | R +13.6 |
| Cattaraugus County | 8,746 | 19,701 | 404 | 28,851 | R +37.7 |
| Sullivan County | 11,777 | 16,570 | 373 | 28,720 | R +16.5 |
| Madison County | 11,787 | 16,070 | 656 | 28,513 | R +14.7 |
| Livingston County | 9,311 | 16,551 | 474 | 26,336 | R +27.3 |
| Otsego County | 10,115 | 13,912 | 540 | 24,567 | R +15.1 |
| Herkimer County | 7,285 | 16,560 | 412 | 24,257 | R +38.0 |
| Washington County | 9,499 | 14,190 | 459 | 24,148 | R +19.3 |
| Genesee County | 7,432 | 16,187 | 409 | 24,028 | R +36.3 |
| Greene County | 8,506 | 12,608 | 344 | 21,458 | R +18.9 |
| Fulton County | 6,288 | 13,908 | 287 | 20,483 | R +37.0 |
| Tioga County | 7,623 | 12,494 | 348 | 20,465 | R +23.7 |
| Delaware County | 7,435 | 11,936 | 396 | 19,767 | R +22.6 |
| Chenango County | 6,143 | 12,058 | 353 | 18,554 | R +31.6 |
| Cortland County | 7,783 | 10,062 | 495 | 18,340 | R +12.1 |
| Montgomery County | 5,519 | 11,950 | 248 | 17,717 | R +36.2 |
| Allegany County | 4,445 | 12,551 | 311 | 17,307 | R +46.6 |
| Franklin County | 7,270 | 9,232 | 406 | 16,908 | R +11.4 |
| Essex County | 7,935 | 8,328 | 231 | 16,494 | R +2.0 |
| Wyoming County | 4,043 | 12,149 | 196 | 16,388 | R +49.5 |
| Orleans County | 4,382 | 10,604 | 244 | 15,230 | R +40.8 |
| Schoharie County | 4,328 | 9,010 | 286 | 13,624 | R +34.1 |
| Seneca County | 5,487 | 6,930 | 280 | 12,697 | R +11.2 |
| Lewis County | 2,548 | 8,405 | 190 | 11,143 | R +52.4 |
| Yates County | 3,580 | 5,336 | 154 | 9,070 | R +19.0 |
| Schuyler County | 3,142 | 4,780 | 145 | 8,067 | R +20.1 |
| Hamilton County | 974 | 1,899 | 62 | 2,935 | R +31.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.